It is no lie that as the elections are coming closer and closer per day, the US presidential line up is starting to be analyzed on a deeper level by United States voters. With the most recent presidential debate between Biden and Trump, it has prompted voting groups to reconsider voting for them in favor of third-party candidates. The question arises: will the third-party candidate draw more votes from the Democratic base or from disillusioned voters across the spectrum?
Historical and Current Landscape
Third-party candidates have periodically disrupted the political landscape in the United States, their presence often siphoning votes from one of the major parties. Independents began to outnumber Democrats and Republicans in 1991, according to Gallup, with some exceptions between 2004 and 2008. Presidential election years usually see a drop in the percentage of political independents, so these figures could still change in the upcoming weeks.
The presence of several prominent alternative candidates has taken much more attention this election season than any other time before. With a well known third party candidate involved, it’s unsure how the elections will go this season but we certainly have our inferences. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ended his Democratic party campaign in October to run as an independent, polling at a current 7.5% estimate in the race against Trump and Biden
Other candidates, such as Dr. Colonel West, who campaigns for truth and justice, and Chase Oliver, running as a libertarian candidate, also catch many voters’ eyes as they diverge away from the classic Democrat and Republican runners. Green Party candidate Jill Stein has attracted voters with her pro-worker, anti-war, and climate-action policies, although she only draws support from 1% of registered voters nationwide.
Most take in consideration that Third-Party and independent candidates usually fall short every year. The political climate is charged, and voter sentiments are more polarized than ever. As the Democratic candidates navigate their campaigns, they must account for this new variable.
Potential Impacts
One of the most immediate concerns for Democratic candidates is the potential for vote splitting. If a significant portion of the electorate is swayed by the third-party candidate, it could detract from the Democratic vote share, potentially handing the election to the opposing party. While sometimes overlooked, vote splitting is a problem in American elections, particularly in metropolitan areas with minority populations. Following each election, political observers evaluate whether the winner’s margin of victory indicates a “mandate to govern, ” which makes identifying such a mandate increasingly difficult as the number of candidates increases and vote splitting alongside it.
In other aspects, Democratic candidates may also take the approach of feeling compelled to adjust their policies to appeal to a broader base. Referring to the current U.S. president Joe Biden, the New York Times writes that in terms of his promises, “Last Monday, it was forgiving student loans. This week, it was calling for tariffs on Chinese steel. Soon, President Biden is expected to protect federal land in the Alaskan wilderness.”
Democrats are focusing on themes with broad appeal, such as abortion rights and democracy. Although the president’s recent events have helped highlight his commitments to key constituencies, the slow pace of government activity raises the question of whether the targeted policy reforms will be enacted in time to answer voters’ concerns and aid his campaign. Democrats would then need to turn their focus to Biden’s policy pledges now that people are becoming more interested in non-leading candidates, which could lead to changes in campaign methods and messaging as they try to win over undecided voters.
People’s Choice
The anticipated rematch between President Biden and former President Trump will see both candidates trying to capture the independent vote. In 2023, an average of 43% of U.S. adults identified as independent, matching the 2014 high. Meanwhile, the percentage of Americans identifying as Democrats hit a new low of 27%, a shift from the trend where Democrats generally held an edge.
Third parties gained more traction with the electorate positioning themselves locally and broadened their messaging to encompass more of the political and social challenges in the U.S and its global affairs. By expanding their focus beyond singular issues and connecting their main concerns with other related challenges, third parties consequently received a significant rise in support. However, their narrow focus and the major parties’ strategy of incorporating key third-party issues into their own platforms still create fighting challenges to successfully claim their presidential positions, but that doesn’t stop them from impacting the two-party candidates.
This leads us to believe that since many of the once democratic voters are now shifting their votes to independent party candidates, an overall democratic figure in the presidential race is now losing its place against the republican party. And while voting for a third party candidate seems to feel more applicable with the current candidate run, it may not be as impactful as one would hope it to be. This presses a challenge for the democratic party to redeem itself in voting numbers, standing at a 39.5% poll result, and having the republican party at a 1.9 percent lead.
What Now?
As we anticipate the upcoming election, the role of the third-party candidate cannot be overlooked. For Democratic candidates, this adds a layer of complexity to an already challenging campaign. The increase in the percentage of independents has come more at the expense of Democrats than Republicans, which might be expected since Democrats were previously the largest political group. The impact of third-party electoral voting on our democratic candidates will unfold in the coming weeks, and we’re definitely in for a ride.
