The power struggles in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) and the Gulf region, have transpired into political quagmires, over the years. The contemporary world is witnessing a shift at the geo-political chessboard of Middle East, where fading hegemony of a single party, is being replaced with a scores of new contenders. Ultimately, landscape of a world of competing players is being re-colored, where in different stake holders not only have to face the daunting challenges but new sources of power are also emerging. In this piece, number of factors are being outlined for re-arranging the balance within MENA and Gulf, besides stipulating the role of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) in re-arranging the power matrix in this tumultuous region.
For a long time in the 20th century, the Gulf was known as a success story characterized with oil and petro dollars. The dependence of West on the riches of oil producing countries for their energy needs, allowed big oil producers like KSA to exert their influence on their neighborhood as well as the region. Coming to shape as a powerful influencer, hexahedron of oil giants utilized its economic clout to tint the politics and security of the area. This period marked the creation of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)- a political and economic alliance intended to unite the six member states, namely KSA, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Contrary to last era, the 21st century is an epoch-making time. The grip of oil-rich states has loosened, when alternative energy together with growing energy efficiency measures, came to the fore. Besides, the aspirations of other regional players like Iran, Turkey, and even non-state actors like Hezbollah, have caused concern for oil producing giants of the Gulf.
Contrary to the power balance existing within the GCC, it is becoming evident that GCC is on a verge of subtle power shift. UAE, with its go-getter economy, already showing strong growth tendency in the tourism sector along with its assertive foreign policy, gets to be a major contender. Qatar, with its huge gas deposits and independent streak in foreign policy, has made for itself the role of a mediator and supporter of regional dialogue. Such changes, however, do not manifest a middle power substructure, as KSA still considers itself to be the most dominant/ influential state.
A big restless chaos arises in Iran that is guarding the Gulf. Its plans and implementations bring a lot of doubts and consternation to everyone. Despite the fact that the nuclear program of the Islamic Republic is a secret undertaking and has been suspected of having military ambitions, it still remains a major concern for the Gulf States, especially KSA. Also its regional activities cause obsession which leave no place for another country to have chance. Most importantly, Iran’s continuous backing of Shia militias in Iraq and Yemen seen as the strategic instruments in the strategic war with Saudi Arabia has further deepened the divide on the sectarian level and evolved other states into deadly conflicts. The main reason for this sense of uneasiness is the historical rivalry between Iran and KSA. The two countries have jostled for regional domination for a long time, using ideological, political and economic means. While recent diplomatic efforts seeking to ease tensions offer a tenuous hope for a crack in the ice that is the region’s frigid past, a lingering mistrust and plethora of unresolved issues still remains as a source of worry for their hopes of a peaceful future. Way to future depends on whether Iran removes the basis of the international concerns over its nuclear program and represents peaceful politics in the region. Coming to an agreement is only possible, when the shadow of tension starts to fade, and a more cooperative and secure Gulf emerges.
The fear of decrease of oil reserves has pushed the Gulf States to explore news ways for diversification of economies. Vision-2030, Saudi Arabia’s plan to create its future, is the very proof that such an inclination is getting traction fast. Vision-2030 of Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman of KSA concentrates on the development of a functional non-oil industry, which is not confined to tourism or manufacturing but also extends to the service sectors, such as health and education. Likewise, the UAE is boosting innovation and technology and gradually becoming a regional hub for the latest industries. The unique diversification plans are not limited to domestic development prospects alone. As one of the tools of the Gulf States for creating a better business environment and a workforce that is highly skillful, foreign investment attraction becomes a powerful tool that can be used for that purpose. The end game is to transform these resource-based economies into the knowledge-based ones. This is a process that is still being woven, but it retains the potential to change the economies scales in the Gulf very much, by stopping completely their reliance on the oil sector.
With security being a common priority across all the Gulf States, these states resolve to come together time and again to tackle any common regional threats that would otherwise destabilize the region. The Yemen and Syria conflicts are still ongoing, the threat of extremism and the possibility of Iranian aggression lurks over Gulf states, thus making it necessary for a strong defence system. By the way, it is the United States that has served as a principle “security guarantor” for a long time. On the other hand, Americans are more and more shifting their strategic priorities there, the Gulf States are thus trying to form their own indigenous military powers and forging new security alliances with other states too.
The Gulf States’ power fluctuations bring about both challenges and opportunities. The bloody rivalries among the regions, the sectarian struggles, and the constant existing conflicts are leading to the instability in the region. Regardless, there is a plus side to it. The current critical situation between Israel and some Arab states like the UAE and Bahrain, is a promise for a more favorable future. Not only does this enhance regional integration, close collaboration in economic promotion and infrastructure projects is likely to foster a common sense of shared destiny.
Grown is the idea that Saudi Arabia’s leadership over the Gulf is not to be regarded as the absolute one like before. The growing of other ambitious players and the fall of oil’s dominance have brought a new era of multi-polarity. But to think so of the importance of the state is very wrong. Whilst its gain of oil, however, innumerable still means tremendous economic power. Besides, Saudi Arabia is the most populated country in the Arabian Peninsula, which means it has a great number of voters, who can help it win on the regional political stage. Moreover, the custodianship of Two Holy Mosques in Mecca and Medina, are the most fundamental peculiarity of KSA, establishing it as a faith-based entity acting upon the religious ground, which also gave it great soft power in the Muslim world. Now, an essential point is that what is still left of strengths of Saudi Arabia will work here to see how much effectiveness it has in the growing pluralism. Vision-2030 initiative is a crucial step in creating a diversified economy that will ensure the country’s prosperity beyond oil in the long run. On the other hand, improvement of one’s approach to foreign policy, in which the policy will base in talking not fighting, is therefore more than crucial. Through the process of adjusting to the new type of politics in the Gulf, Saudi Arabia can confirm that it continues to be an influential player coining regional geopolitical developments.
The power dynamics in the Gulf are at the moment undergoing a complicated transformation. Old guard gives way to new entrants, dominating blocs are becoming multipolar and influence of the US is gradually weakening. Although a lot of problems exist still, there are also these possibilities for a harmonious region and stability. Saudi Arabia which is not the sole ruler of power now, can still play an active part in determining this new chapter of the Gulf’s history by adopting a more cooperative way of dealing with regional politics and security issues. The future of the Gulf is certainly based upon the ability of all the parties to cruise these burly streams, sailing the way for a more serene and successful future.
