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Afghanistan: Anarchy in Practice

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In this globalized world, time and space are shrinking with the advent of technologies. But the prevailing global interconnections are creating some irreversible collision among the sovereign units, which suggest that this Liberal democratic world became so complicated and peculiar that at this stage no one can control anything, not even superpower. Though they can regulate to some extent but can’t control. Most of the sovereign units are running on democratic principles; nevertheless, there are still several unregulated territories are operating, which is a major concern for democratic nations to deal with them. Hence, these territories provide a breeding ground for illegal activities due to the absence of law and order in that particular area. Most critical of among those territories is the Afghanistan, which became a hub of illicit trade and drug trafficking as well as the global source of terroristic movements.

Afghanistan is not only posing severe hurdles to neighbouring countries, but it is a menace to global peace. Notwithstanding, a full-fledged Afghan government, Taliban are accompanying with Al-Qaeda is the major key players in the region. They entirely disregard the policies of the government, also seeks to counterbalance the power politics in its favour. In praxis, there is no indivisible supreme authority with the capability to command over the whole territory which renders sufficient space for anarchy and turbulence in the region. This implies that afghan, as a state, failed to administer in its real sense. Consequently, it inflates the mystery to classify the nature of Afghanistan to have a meaningful analysis. Presently, Ashraf Ghani, the successor of Hamid Karzai leading the country since 2014, which signifies that Afghanistan is not a completely failed state; instead, it has some fragmented parts. This inefficiency of the state to govern according to global norms is disrupting the peace and also serve as a reservoir of illegal activities. The attack of 9/11 is a suitable example of lawlessness accompanying with the grave consequences of outgrowth of terrorism. Briefly, the geographical terrain in and around the afghan region gives a very suitable space for terrorists to flourish and hide. Hence, these non-state actors are striving to expand their magnetism to the neighbouring countries, which may prompt major security implications for the bordering countries primarily for CAR due to the weak political system and porous borders. Similarly, India is also affected by radical and extremist tendencies that stem from volatile Afghanistan. Moreover, India commenced pursuing its interests in Afghanistan with the well-established engagement. Therefore, India needs to pedal carefully to remain intact in the Taliban headed Afghanistan.

Afghanistan: Failed or Fragmented state?

Afghanistan is known for the history of invasion following with its internal strife and open- ended battle that is intensifying the situation even further without any foreseeable end. All the international efforts have been ineffective to render any useful explication of the conflict chiefly because of ethnic clashes among the civilians and Pakistani interferences. As a consequence, this engendered into convulsions and disruptions within Afghanistan. The instability and the legacy of the Taliban is also a major cause of conflict which leaves no option for the government to execute any practical solutions. However, it is quintessential to identify the speculations behind the germination of non-state actors, nonetheless the world’s most potent military interventions. Why only Afghanistan, not Pakistan or Central Asia or any other region of the world? This question diverts the attention to diagnose the nature of Afghanistan as a state first.

According to Max Weber, the territorial boundary of the country is governed by an exclusive sovereign authority termed as government or state (Gauba, 2009). However, in the case of Afghanistan, not only the state but the non-state actors also regulating different territorial area within a country. There are numerous autonomous units operating to stretch their influence over the territory. This signifies that Afghanistan failed to perform the process of law and governance efficiently. In short, the Afghan government failed to comply with all the principal features of the state, which indicates that power is divided among various stakeholders primarily where the state is weak, fragmented or in extreme cases failed (Barfield, 2010). Hence, it is incompetent for the state to exert authority over all actors within the borders of the state. Mainly if there are non-state armed actors who are maintaining autonomous character mostly by force, then it is almost impossible for the government to execute any order in that region (Rotberg, 2005). On the other hand, Afghanistan has elected president including a political system which restrains us from distinguishing Afghanistan as a failed state.

Hamid Karzai was the first Democratically elected president of Afghanistan and subsequentially his successor Ashraf Ghani is leading the country since 2014 (Nick B. Mills, 2007). It exhibits that Afghanistan has unusual features of the state but not complying with all the authentic features of a nation-state. However, it is imprecise to delineate Afghan as a failed state; instead, it shows the symptoms of fragmentation. Therefore, there is a need to crystalize the understanding of failed state and fragmented state to have a feasible conclusion. State failure is a difficult situation where state agency ceases to operate entirely or partly. In Afghanistan, the circumstances are more similar to the fragmented state where the so-called illegal non-state actors have a significant role to play accompanying with state authorities. Lastly, non-state actors do not acknowledge the hierarchy of authorities which eventually drives to the anarchy and lawlessness within a state.

The threat for Democratic World Order

In the 21st century, the world regulates on the orbit of liberal principles. The post-soviet era with a twist from fixed to flexible exchange rate system gave enormous space to flourish the liberalism or in another way globalization to its zenith. Globalization not only demands the flexible economy but also requires a stable political system for its growth. In contrast, the political system of Afghanistan is precarious and led to the outgrowth of baneful factors. The politically destabilize country consists of numerous Clan leaders, which are the main components of the political fabric of the country. The presence of these clans with diverse and distinct social beliefs and norms paves the way of the tussle. Besides, the existence of external forces since the last half-century also contributing to antagonize the culture and ignited the growth of extremist ideologies. Ever since millions of dollars and human resources has been injected, but the story remains unchanged.

Gradually, Afghanistan became the hub of transnational organized crimes with the support of highly sophisticated weapon systems. Mostly, the funding for these activities is obtained with the help of illicit financial flows and the narco trade estimated around $400 in 2018. The growth of the illicit trade in Afghanistan is indestructible, and the country is now the origin of around 90% of the global supply of heroin (Gregorian, 2020). This opium poppy cultivation is one of the primary sources of livelihood in the region. On the other hand, it also serves as a platform to establish strong linkages among the farmers and illegal outsourcing agents, furthermore undermines the credibility of state authorities. These illegitimate connections deviate and alienate the civilians from state apparatuses and inclined them towards the radical or jihadist ideologies. The “Idea of Jihad” befuddles the individual to the extent that they can be used as a suicide bombers in the name of sacrifice. Therefore, the suicidal tactics became one of the unbeatable apocalyptic methods to perpetrate terror on a broader aspect. Moreover, these new tactics bashing the U.S. and NATO to reassess its counterterrorism measures and policies to secure peace and stability. Since the last two decades, the U.S. analysts and policymakers are incompetent to design the concrete path of victory despite the persistent multilateral engagements and consistent failure, eventually leading to an unsettled withdrawal of U.S. forces in a desultory manner.

According to the Council on Foreign Relations, the conflict status of Afghanistan is still getting worse notwithstanding multilateral peace talks among prominent leaders and stakeholders, which may undermine the future prospects of any settlement and inter-afghan mediations. Furthermore, the stage of reconciliation after year-long consultations once again lost its sanctity with the emergence of a global pandemic and declining interest of the Taliban. However, the Afghan crisis sinking a massive amount of human and financial resources following with the unprecedented deaths and casualties to settle the battle. Consequentially, it became a global solicitude to safeguard Afghanistan from turning into a terrorist safe haven. Terrorism and extremism are dangerous for all nations around the world. Also, the drug mafia within Afghanistan is posing a hard blow, domestically and internationally and expanding its root in the region due to its lawlessness. The development of these illegal movements within Afghanistan and around the region raises serious security concerns for the world, can also break off the stability and impede the global economic growth. Lastly, it can be said that without any focused effort to dismantle the unauthorized trade and activities, Afghanistan will continue to captivate the corruption and violence that have plagued the world throughout the turbulent history. Henceforth, it is essential to track the development process in Afghanistan and harmonize the situation with the help of the U.S. and other NATO allies to sustain a peaceful world order.

Security Implications on CAR

As it has been previously stated that Afghanistan is a war-torn nation and its devastating repercussions left the economy crumbled. This economic insufficiency plus unemployment constrain civilians to join the militancy groups. These groups have very active linkages from the Islamic world, especially from Pakistan and Saudi Arabia moreover, they were creating robust linkages to extend their scope in the other bordering countries to harbour themselves during the crisis. Additionally, they also try to woo the civilians of other nations in the name of holy wars.

Afghanistan crisis became a global threat due to the mounting narco trade and outreach of terrorist. Historical pieces of evidence reveal that religious extremism provides the base for terrorism while ultimately, Afghanistan is surrounded by the hard-core Islamic countries. Consequentially, the threat is not only confined to Afghanistan; slightly, it has flooded the neighbouring countries with severe repercussions. Most affected is Central Asia the immediate neighbours of Afghanistan, which provides a substantial base for the terrorist to deceive and accomplish their goals along with Pakistan’s strategic support. Central Asia’s corrupt bureaucracy and weak political system present ample possibilities to prosper the so-called unauthorized activities without any legal risk vis a vis militant groups in Afghanistan are also forming a very close nexus with the neighbouring countries to acquire human and financial resources, especially in CAR.

The threats emanating from Afghanistan is not only using Central Asia as a breeding ground for subversive activities; somewhat, it is also ruining the indigenous culture of these countries. Afghanistan is posing multifaceted economic, political and cultural challenges to the CAR because of the defective political system. The unsteady civic institutions of Central Asia and regional conflict gives leverage to infiltrators to operate under their nose. Besides, religious extremism, ethnic divisions, drug trafficking, illicit trade, and the supply of deadly weapons is the major security threats instigated by Afghanistan. Further, Central Asian routes are used for the opium trade, which is a major source of funding for the Afghan warlords. Moreover, the unresponsive governments of the region failed to harmonies the situation for better economic growth which is worrisome for the major trading partners, including India. Henceforth, the failing economies and the lack of a powerful motivation to engage with India is obstructing the fruits of mutual benefits.

India’s engagement with Afghan’s and Afghanistan

India and Afghanistan hold deep cultural linkages which can be traced back to antiquity simultaneously with the trade relations which proceeded in fragmented layers with the rise and fall of different regimes. This deep-rooted mutual connection underwent a major setback since the partition accompanied with organized stifling by Pakistan. Unquestionably, Afghanistan holds a vital status from the perspective of India’s security calculus. The vitality of Afghanistan for India are not precisely because of Pakistan but proportionately , if not more vital, attached to India’s aspiration to be and to be seen as a major player in the region. Besides, the undeniable fact is that India has always seen Afghanistan as a viaduct to extend its strategic reach beyond south Asia. However, Strategic calculations are not the sole factor; slightly, various other underlying factors are also responsible for India’s direct engagement with Afghanistan.

Firstly, due to the close alliance of mujahideen with ISI (Intelligence agency of Pakistan), Afghanistan poses serious security challenges to India. On the other hand, Pakistan has continuously tried to stimulate the turmoil in the Kashmir to disorientate the region from India, which is a primary cause of the contentious relationship between India and Pakistan. Islamabad also using Afghanistan as a vault of insurgent groups and trained them with core military tactics to meet the perverted interests against India. Pakistan is using Afghanistan, as a launchpad for training and sending Islamic militants to Kashmir. Hence, the stability of Afghanistan is the primary concern of India from Kashmir’s perspective.

Secondly, India’s engagement with Afghanistan strongly motivated with friendly gestures to advance  more  excellent  regional  stability  in entirely coincides with Kautilya’s Rajamandala theory (Circle of States). Although, the world is quite different now in comparison to the Kautilya’s age (Boesche, 2002)but the geopolitical scenario of the Afpak region utterly compatible with his theory. This theory illustrates the bordering nation (i.e., Pakistan) as a hostile and the country which has aligned borders to a hostile country (i.e. Afghanistan) is a natural ally (In case of India). Accordingly, it is imperative for India to maintain a cordial relation with Afghanistan. Additionally, India can use Afghanistan to keep a check on Pakistan to dismantle the Mujahideen’s sheltered by Pakistan from time to time.

Thirdly, India’s economy is proliferating to satisfy the daily demands of the nation, following with an ambition to become a global power. To sustain this economic growth, India needs an uninterrupted supply  of energy resources  which  can  be complemented  by  CAR.  Therefore, Afghanistan can provide a viable transit route to Central Asia to tap the unexplored chunk of energy reserves to relieve India’s energy thirst. India can utilize Afghanistan as a gateway to access Central Asian markets and to enhance energy and economic collaboration to foster the dream of South and Central Asian connectivity.

Though gradually India has advanced its position in Afghanistan with the projection of soft power and infrastructure development. This makes India as one of the largest donors to Afghanistan, which can be manifested through milestone projects concluded by India like Delaram-Zaranj

Highway, transmission lines, Salma Dam and a parliament building in Kabul. On the other aspects, India is also cementing its position through soft power in the field of education, medical and most significantly the passion for Indian cinemas. In spite of that, India needs to recalibrate its approach to root itself as a major player in the Taliban headed Afghanistan. It is also equally significant for India to obstruct the emergence of any radical regime in Afghanistan to pacify the whole South Asian Region.

Conclusion

Over the decades, Afghanistan became more volatile than it was ever before. The rationale behind this is not the external force rather internal radicalization targeted on vulnerable groups in and around the region. The insurgent groups have different origins and motives which is stretching across the South Asian Region and its more threatening for the neighbouring countries in particular, whereas the bordering nations around Afghanistan provide the source of shelter and various other assistance anonymously. The most unstable among them is the CAR which also became an alternate transit route for the contraband products. To sum up, it can be said that internally fractured central Asia needs to captivate the foreign investment and strengthen the security measures to overcome the crisis. The effects of the catastrophe are not only confined to bordering nations; preferably, it has also elongated to the Indian soil at a full-scale. This signifies that India has to contain numerous direct and indirect security challenges arising from Afghanistan, which derailed the bilateral progress between Central Asia and India.

References

Barfield, T. (2010). Afghanistan a cultural and political history. New Jersey: Princeton University Press Princeton & Oxford.

Boesche, R. (2002). The First Great Political Realist: Kautilya and His Arthashastra. Maryland: Lexington Books.

Gauba, O. (2009). An Introduction to Political Theory. New Delhi: Macmillan.

Gregorian, D. H. (2020, 03 21). Trialogue. Retrieved from Institute of World Affairs:

Nick B. Mills, N. D. (2007). Karzai: The Failing American Intervention and the Struggle for Afghanistan. New Jersey: John & Wiley sons.

Rotberg, R. I. (2005). State Failure and State Weakness in a Time of Terror. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution press.

I am a Post-graduate in Politics & International studies and currently working with Frank Creations as a PR manager. My primary areas of research include Chinese Foreign Policy, Indo-pacific, Para diplomacy, and International Security. The secondary areas of research include Central Asia& South Asia.

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How Putin’s Russia is Exploiting Jihadists Against pro-Navalny Protesters?

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Who is Putin’s terrorist: Navalny or Jihadist?

Russia’s strongman Vladimir Putin is considering using old tactics to stem the growing wave of nationwide protests in support of his fiercest critic, popular opposition leader Alexei Navalny. This tactic was developed in the late 90s by the KGB ideologists and successfully applied in order to bring to power Vladimir Putin, who is ruling the country with an iron hand longer than all his Soviet predecessors except Joseph Stalin. The tactical skills of the Putin’s policy architects were aiming to frighten Russian citizens by Islamist terrorism and Chechen separatism and unite patriotic and nationalist forces around a new leader capable of challenging the West.

Thus, when the nationwide protests in support of Navalny from Yakutia to Kaliningrad became the most serious challenge, the Kremlin began to trumpet the threat of Islamist extremists and international terrorists. This time, the Putin regime is intimidating protesters with impending terrorist attacks of Central Asian and Caucasian jihadists and their Syrian parent organization, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

On the eve of the next nationwide protests on February 14, the Prosecutor General’s Office, the Investigative Committee and the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russia warned of the inadmissibility of calls to participate in an unsanctioned rally. Russian state news agencies RIA Novosti and TASS have disseminated information that the most powerful Sunni militant faction of HTS in northern Syria is preparing a series of lone-wolf attacks during the upcoming mass street protests of Navalny’s supporters in various Russian cities. In doing so, however, the pro-Kremlin media cited its undisclosed law enforcement sources and ultimately spread merely conspiracy theories.

According to anonymous sources of Russian security services, HTS-backed Uzbek Jihadi battalion Katibat Tawhid wal Jihad(KTJ), Chechen militant groups Ajnad al-Kavkaz (AK) and Jaysh al-Muhajirin wal-Ansar (JMA) are planning to carry out explosions and attack protesters. To achieve these purposes, terrorist groups allegedly recruited Russian citizens and Central Asian migrants, who expect their leaders’ commands.

pro-Navalny protesters

The Putin regime faced the most serious challenge when anti-government protests took place across the Russia in support Navalny in recent weeks. As is known, in mid-January, Navalny returned to the country after recovering from a chemical Novichok poisoning that nearly took his life and was immediately detained and later jailed for alleged parole violations. The robust Putin regime first demonstrated its grave alarm when tens of thousands pro-Navalny protesters demanded his resignation in more than 100 cities and towns, chanting Putin as a ‘thief’. Police detained more than 11,000 people at what they say were unsanctioned protests that the Moscow condemned as illegal and dangerous.

Alexei Navalny’s political creativity and tactical skill inspired Russian liberal youth weary with the corruption-plagued political order presided over by Putin. Fierce clashes between protesters and riot police during the mass rallies indicate that a new generation is not afraid of arrests and the repressive state machine. And to stop the pace of marathon confrontation with the opposition, Putin resorted to his long-standing KGB tactics, intimidating society with possible terrorist attacks and explosions by Islamists.

Will Uzbek and Chechen Jihadists hit pro-Navalny Protesters?

But the fact is, it’s not the first time Putin’s Russia has intimidated society with possible terror attacks by Islamist terrorists and Chechen separatists to achieve political goals. During the transition of power from Boris Yeltsin to Vladimir Putin at the end of the second millennium, Kremlin ideologists successfully tested anti-Islamist tactics to overcome the challenges of the political opposition. The ideologists of Putin’s election campaign created his image as a decisive and strong leader, the one who can defeat Islamist terrorism, Chechen separatism and preserve the integrity of Great Russia. His image as the only savior of the Russian Empire was accompanied by radio and television spots and news about the atrocities of Chechen militants and their beheading of Russian soldiers.

Meanwhile, there is a conspiracy theory in Russian political circles that the powerful FSB orchestrated apartment bombings in the Russian cities of Buinaksk, Moscow and Volgodonsk in 1999 to boost Putin’s approval rating aiming to ensure his victory in the presidential elections. As a result of these “terrorist attacks”, 307 people were killed, more than 1,700 people were injured. Russian officials concluded that there was a “Chechen trail” in the bombings, but no proof of their involvement was adduced. Many still doubt the results of the investigation and consider Putin to be the culprit of this tragedy.

That’s when Putin uttered his famous phrase: “We will pursue the [Islamist] terrorists everywhere. If they are in an airport, we’ll kill them there. If we catch them in the toilet, we’ll exterminate them in the toilet.” Many still believe that the apartment bombings and the FSB’s tactic against Islamist extremists catapulted Putin into the presidency. Putin soon launched a second war in Chechnya and emerged victorious in the intra-Kremlin struggle. His ratings soared. He met with huge approval in a society weary from the economic collapse, corruption and crime of the Yeltsin era.

Usually people prefer to keep quiet about this tragedy. Russian political figures Sergei Yushenkov, Yuri Shchekochikhin, Anna Politkovskaya, Alexander Litvinenko, and Boris Berezovsky worked to unravel the mystery of apartment bombings. But all of them were brutally murdered under mysterious circumstances. Ultimately, the Kremlin’s tactics to combat Islamist terrorists not only helped to rocket Putin to the political Olympus, but also increased Islamophobia, nationalism and chauvinism in Russian society.

Today, even 22 years after Putin came to power, the Kremlin’s ideologists have begun to intimidate Russia’s liberal society with likely Islamist terrorist attacks again as the nationwide protests seriously threaten his regime. This illustrates the regime exhaustion and the lack of confidence in face of the strategic sophistication of Navalny’s team.

So far, neither HTS, nor Central Asian and North Caucasian Salafi-Jihadi groups have officially responded to the FSB on the plotting of terrorist attacks in Russian cities during opposition rallies. However, in encrypted Telegram chats, Uzbek and Chechen jihadists actively discussed the “leak information”.

Thus, one of the KTJ’s followers on Telegram under the name Al Hijrat said in Uzbek: “Kafir Putin frightens his people with the just sword of Allah.But the people of the blessed land of Sham know that he himself is the main terrorist. Russian infidels and Putin’s Nusayri puppy (Alawites regime of Bashar al-Assad) bomb Greater Idlib to destroy Ahlus Sunnah wal Jamaah. Executioners will have to hold a harsh response before the Almighty for their crimes.”

A pro-Jihadi chat “Inspire” in Telegram wrote in Russian: “the information about the impending attacks by Ajnad al-Kavkaz is fake. The authorities are trying to hold Russia’s awakening people from mass protests against Putin’s criminal group. To intimidate civilians, the Russian siloviki (FSB) can and are ready to commit terrorist acts, blaming HTS for this, which are not interested in what is happening there in Russia. The Putinists have a lot of experience in killing their own citizens and blowing up their houses.” In this message, Chechen militants indirectly protect HTS from accusations by pro-Kremlin media on impending terrorist attacks in Russian cities during opposition protests. This is no coincidence, since Ajnad al Kavkaz is known for its close ties with HTS.

On Telegram channel, some Russian-speaking jihadists from the post-Soviet space mocked at the ‘leaked information’, some expressed their anger against the “Russian occupants” in Sham, some advised protesters to be vigilant before the FSB provocation. A pro-Jihadi chat Icharkhoin Telegram recommended Muslims of Caucasus be ready for new repressions of Russian infidels and local Murtad (apostate), because after the bombings of houses in Volgodonsk, Putin started the 2-Chechen war and took away the independence of Ichkeria. The Telegram chat “Muhajireen” says that the Kremlin is preparing for a harsh suppression of the mass protests.

It is not the first time the Russian authorities have accused Central Asian and North Caucasian Jihadi networks of organizing terrorist act. On April 3, 2017, the Russian FSB blamed KTJ for the bombing on a subway train in St. Petersburg that killed 16 people and injured 67 others. On October 15, 2020, the FSB once again accused the Uzbek KTJ militants of preparing subversive and terrorist acts in Russian cities of Moscow, St. Petersburg, Ufa, Maikop and Volgograd. In a statement, the intelligence services claimed that during the counter-terrorist operation, they prevented explosions and eliminated two members of KTJ. Then FSB distributed photos and videos of firearms, ammunition, IED’s chemical components, and religious literature seized during the operation.

On October 16, 2020, KTJ in its statement denied the Russian authorities’ accusation in these attacks. The Uzbek militant group stated that “according the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s policy, our activities are limited to the territory of Sham, and we do not conduct jihadi acts outside of it.” Further, KTJ assured via its Telegram channel that it “does not have its cells in Russia and is not involved in organizing terrorist acts there.”

Jihadi factor of Russian democracy

The Russian authorities often make thunderous statements about plotting terrorist attacks by “international terrorist groups” and how siloviki (FSB) successfully prevented its. This time, trumpeting about terrorist plots by HTS and its foreign subsidiaries during mass protests in various Russian cities, Moscow hoped to hit two birds with one stone. First, the Kremlin hopes that alarm on terrorist attacks could become a cold shower for Navalny’s supporters, as a result of which the activity of protesters will subside and the scale of the rallies will decrease. Second, by accusing HTS of plotting terrorist attacks, Russia is trying to justify its bloody bombing in northern Syria before the international community.

However, experts on jihadism and political Islam were skeptical about accusations of HTS for plotting terrorist attacks in Russia.HTS, Syria’s most powerful rebel group, is trying to implement a new strategy to transform itself from a global jihadist outlook into a local “moderate national liberation movement”. Today its new agenda is entirely dedicated to Syria and the Syrian local Sunni community. Within this new strategy, HTS severely restricted external attacks by its subsidiaries – Central Asian and North Caucasian Salafi-Jihadi groups –KTJ, AK and JMA. Consequently, HTS, which holds the last major rebel bastion in Idlib province and backs the local Salvation Government, is focused only on the internal Syrian jihad than organizing external terrorist attacks.

HTS emir Abu Mohammed al-Julani is well aware that any terrorist attacks in Russia could place his group among the global terrorist organizations, such as ISIS and al Qaeda, from which he decisively disavowed. HTS pursues a pragmatic approach to the political context, and its external attacks outside of Syria could undermine its fragile legacy, which Julani has achieved with great difficulty.

According to the new strategy, HTS has excluded Central Asian and local hardliners from its ranks. Those jihadists who did not want to submit to its new policy, such as former KTJ emir Abu Saloh al-Uzbeki and HTS Shura Council member Abu Malek al-Talli, were arrested or taken out of the Syrian jihad zone. Given the ability of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to pressure Russian-speaking militant groups to abandon its global jihadist ambitions, it can be concluded that the Russian FSB’s accusation against HTS raises many questions.

In conclusion, the Russian authorities alert about Islamists terrorist attacks during pro-Navalny protests is aimed at an internal audience and pursues exclusively domestic political goals. And these goals are clear as plain as the nose on the face. Using these methods, the Kremlin wants to stop the turbulent development of mass protests and divert the attention of people from the Navalny factor. If they succeed, the authorities will take time out to gather strength for the parliamentary elections in the fall of 2021.But if the wave of protests grows ever stronger and threatens Putin’s regime, then a repetition of the 1999 scenario is quite possible. As then, radical Islamism and terrorism can become a starting point for strengthening authoritarianism in Russia.

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Corona pandemic: Realism limitation in solving 21st century security threats

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Today, most serious threats of the 21st century are not ones we can protect ourselves by using armies or advanced weapons. Indeed, the popularity of extreme-right politics, unilateralism based on nationalism and COVID-19 are threatening the world’s post-war security architecture. 

The state-based unilateralism and the trends of national response to the 21st century’s biggest security threat trigger lack of coordination, diplomatic divisions, and incoherent global answer to COVID-19. Hence, as we face the biggest challenge of the contemporary century today, we need to rethink the very nature of our comprehension of national security threats. By doing so, we need a different approach to facing security threats.

With the Corona pandemic as a security threat, one of the foundational international relations theories, the realism, has been revealed to be far limited in terms of its explanatory power than it declares. The argument is that realism has a valid logic and reasons for confidence since answers to the pandemic have confirmed the supremacy of sovereign states, the grounds for the state’s power competition. Nevertheless, the pandemic also presents realism’s weaknesses as a source for successful policy answer to this security challenge. In other words, realism is better at defining risks and threats than suggesting solutions. Put simply, realism’s explanatory power lies in diagnosis rather than treatment or prevention. To make this clear, one insight the theory emphasizes is the representation of states as the fundamental actors in world politics. 

As the coronavirus hit, states shifted quickly to close or tighten international borders, controlled movement within their borders. However, while much independent national action is understandable from a realism’s point of view, it’s insufficient. Unilateralism and state-based measures, such as border controls did not spare states from the pandemic, and unilateral measures risk ending up in national economic and social crisis. 

To fight the Corona pandemic most efficiently, policymakers will have to shift to other theoretical traditions to overcome this security threat. They will depend more and more on greater international openness, trust and cooperation. Hence, while from the realism’s view, unilateral and state-based actions may serve national interest to fight the pandemic “within the national borders”, the pandemic is a global security threat and thus remains unsolved so long as other states and non-state actors have not done the same and states move on unilaterally. 

Solving global crises and security threats such as a pandemic, similar to world economic or other security crises cannot be solved based on the realist considerations of zero-sum competitive logic. Instead, transnational security threats, such as Coronavirus, is unmasking the limitations of individual states actions in the global system. Thus, while realism does an excellent job of “diagnosing the problem”, it does not offer solutions to that problem.   

Considering the necessity of worldwide medical items and actions, coordinated and offered by international organizations and non-state actors, the uncoordinated state-based actions result in an ineffective solution to this security crisis. The perspective this article aims to offer is that given the limitations of realism, we need more faith in international transboundary cooperation based on mutual trust, especially trust vis-a-vis international institutions. However, neither the United Nations nor the World Health Organization (WHO) nor any other non-state actor can overcome the Coronavirus on its own; nor non-state actors such as international institutions are alternatives to national states in international relations. 

Instead, they are an instrument of foreign policy and statecraft and states need to rely on them, incorporating them in finding solutions to global security threats. According to constitutionalists, Robert Keohane and Lisa Martin, “States are indeed self-interested, but cooperation is often in their interest and institutions help to facilitate that cooperation.”

From our partner Tehran Times

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The Media System Within and Beyond the West: Australian, Russian and Chinese Media

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This article takes Australian, Russian and Chinese media as three examples to differentiate media systems and elucidate their political or economic context to understand media systems globally. Arguably, the concept of media systems “does not possess a normative or even generally accepted definition“, mainly because the notion is posited on existing publications and empirical research rather than normative theory. More precisely, “this is so for two reasons: firstly—because of the term’s content specificity; secondly—because it is dynamic and variable in time and therefore difficult to precisely define“.

Drawing on the current research of advanced capitalist democracies in Western Europe and North America, Hallin and Mancini propose “there are two main elements of the conceptual framework of Comparing Media Systems (setting aside political-social system variables): the set of four “dimensions” of comparison, and the typology of three models that summarizes what we see as the distinctive patterns of media system development among our 18 cases”. Furthermore, they clarify the four major dimensions that can be compared in different media systems: “first, the development of media markets, with particular emphasis on the strong or weak development of a mass circulation press; second political parallelism; that is, the degree and nature of the links between the media and political parties or, more broadly, the extent to which the media system reflects the major political divisions in society; third, the development of journalistic professionalism; and fourth, the degree and nature of state intervention in the media system”.

Drawing on the four dimensions, Hallin and Mancini summarize three modules from Western Europe and North America: “the Mediterranean or Polarized Pluralist Model, the North/Central European or Democratic Corporatist Model,

and the North Atlantic or Liberal Model”, which will be elaborated on by the next tables.

Table 1 Mediterranean or Polarized Pluralist Model

Country ExamplesFrance, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain
Newspaper IndustryLow newspaper circulation; elite politically oriented press
Political ParallelismHigh political parallelism; external pluralism, commentary-oriented journalism; parliamentary or government model of broadcast governance—politics-over-broadcasting systems
ProfessionalizationWeaker professionalization; instrumentalization
Role of the State in Media SystemStrong state intervention; press subsidies in France and Italy; periods of censorship; “savage deregulation” (except France)

Table 2 North/Central European or Democratic Corporatist Model

Country ExamplesAustria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland
Newspaper IndustryHigh newspaper circulation; early development of mass-circulation press
Political ParallelismExternal pluralism, especially in the national press; historically strong party press; a shift toward neutral commercial <p>press; the politics-in-broadcasting system with substantial autonomy
ProfessionalizationStrong professionalization; institutionalized self-regulation
Role of the State in Media SystemStrong state intervention but with protection for press freedom; press subsidies, robust in Scandinavia; strong public-service broadcasting

Table 3 North Atlantic or Liberal Model

Country ExamplesBritain, the United States, Canada, Ireland
Newspaper IndustryMedium newspaper circulation; early development of mass circulation commercial press
Political ParallelismNeutral commercial press; information-oriented journalism; internal pluralism (but external pluralism in Britain); professional model of broadcast governance—formally autonomous system
ProfessionalizationStrong professionalization; noninstitutionalized self-regulation
Role of the State in Media SystemA market dominated (except strong public broadcasting in Britain, Ireland)

Source: created by the author of this thesis and based on Hallin and Mancini.

Furthermore, it is unfeasible to simply apply the conceptual framework to other countries without appropriate modification. In fact, the “four dimensions” and “three models” are just perfect types, only loosely matched by the media systems of different countries. The ultimate purpose is not to classify individual media systems but to identify the “characteristic patterns of relationship between system characteristics“. Consequently, these inherent patterns of media systems offer “a theoretical synthesis and a framework for comparative research on the media and political systems“.

The Australian media system as an outlier in the Liberal Model

Hallin and Mancini illustrate that Australia should be another example of the Liberal Model. It is because firstly, the “Liberal Model is the broadest, attempting to bridge the trans-Atlantic gulf that regularly emerges in the comparative literature“. Secondly, Australia has historical connections with the UK and the US regarding “early democratization and highly professionalized information-based journalism“. This association has led to strong characteristics of Anglo-American conventions in the Australian media structure, with the quintessence of a dual media system. The binary design has combined the UK-style PSBs (public service broadcasters) such as ABC and SBS (Special Broadcasting Service) with the “US-style commercial networks“. Thirdly, Australia is famous for one of the highest commercial media ownership concentration rates globally, particularly in the newspaper area.

However, the Australian media system does not offer the quintessence of the Liberal Model. Jones and Pusey apply the Liberal Model to the Australian media system and identify four remarkable discrepancies. More precisely, compared to the Liberal Model, Australia has “historically late professionalization of journalism; comparatively low levels of education of journalists; low per capita investment in PSBs; poor regulation for accuracy and impartiality of commercial broadcast journalism; and slow development of relevant bourgeois liberal institutional conventions and rational-legal authority, e.g., formal recognition of freedom of the press”.

Furthermore, Jones and Pusey contend that Australia has several similar features with the Polarized Pluralist Model, especially in clientelism. Based on the definition of Hallin and Mancini, “clientelism tends to be associated with instrumentalization of both public and private media. In the case of public media, appointments tend to be made more based on political loyalty than purely professional criteria”. More concretely, Jones and Pusey outline the following examples to indicate the similarities of the Australian media system with the Polarized Pluralist Model: “the widely accepted recognition that appointments to the ABC Board have been more often than not party-political; the infamous ‘Murdoch amendments’ by the Fraser government to broadcasting legislation in the late 1970s to facilitate Murdoch’s concentration of television ownership; and the long history of proprietorial intervention in the political world”.

Thus, to this extent, there is a certain degree of political parallelism in the Australian media system. However, the Australian one does not match the Polarized Pluralist Model in some key areas. More precisely”, Australia does not have a highly polarized political culture and a strong tradition of mass-circulation party newspapers“. Therefore, it is arguable to perceive the Australian media system as an outlier of the Liberal Model, which can be shown in the following figure:

Figure 1 Relation of individual cases to the three models

Source: derived from Jones and Pusey.

Beyond the West: the unique Russian and Chinese media model

Although the Australian media system is an outlier in the Liberal Model, it still belongs to the typology and scope of the three models, posited on the empirical reality of Western Europe and North America. However, bringing the Russian and Chinese media models into this global comparative apparatus involves two distinct and peculiar systems into the Western-centric framework. Thus, the three models’ classification cannot apply to Russia and China’s two unique systems. Nevertheless, the four dimensions of comparison as a tool for analyzing systemic characteristics still work. However, they are not perfect and need to be modified in the application, as mentioned before.

The Russian media system as a statist commercialized model

After the disintegration of the USSR, Russia took a series of measures to adopt elements of the Western media apparatus, such as “abolition of censorship, freedom of press concepts and related legislation, privatization of media, a shift to more objective reporting, and increasing control by journalists and editorial boards over news production“. However, arguing that the Russian media have been westernized only shows “a poor understanding of” the legacy of the Soviet Union and the “complexity and dissimilarities of the post-Soviet society“, ignoring the most influential factor in the Russian media system: the state. Arguably, the interplay between the state and media has defined the essence and main features of the Russian media system. Historically and culturally, “in Russian public communications, relations between the state and a citizen have involved a clear subordination of the individual to a social power that has always been associated in the Russian context with the state“.

Thus, even though the Polarized Pluralist Model is the most similar of the three models to the Russian one, the Russian media system is still far from the Mediterranean apparatus. The Russian state’s role has exceedingly overshadowed that of the Mediterranean states, suggesting that they cannot be classified as the same type. Ivanitsky differs the Russian media system from the Polarized Pluralist Model in that “it is the state which defined the particular journalism modes such as Court journalism, Imperial journalism, Communist Party journalism in Russian history. Currently, while liberating the media’s economic activity, the state is not ready to relax the control over the content”.

This overwhelming influence of the state also reflects in Russian political parallelism. Although new political parties have appeared after the formation of the Russian Federation, Oates argues that “rather than encouraging the growth and the development of a range of political parties, media outlets in Russia have worked at supporting relatively narrow groups of elites”, part of which have been formed due to the privatization. These elites, combining old political and new emerging business elites, “became key players in the media scene“. More concretely, they created “a particularly Russian form of political parallelism” by using “political media as traditional instruments of political elite management“. Besides, due to the dominant role of the state in Russia, “media, particularly television, have been used to subvert the development of a pluralistic party system“.

Furthermore, in terms of the media industry, the influence of the state is also ubiquitous. Ivanitsky believes the state “has produced practically unsolvable tension for the media themselves trying to function both as commercial enterprises and as institutions of the society”, even though Russia has achieved rapid development in its advertising and media market. Hypothetically, these tensions between the media and the state are supposed to be the “decentralized market competition as a vital antidote to political despotism“. However, Vartanovaargues that “the aims of the state converged with those of the advertising industry, and commercially determined content became both a means of increasing depoliticization and instrumentalization of political communication, and of stimulating consumption”. From another angle, de Smaele believes that the Western influence on Russian media has only been limited to market demand, with the lack of Western notions such as “independent Fourth Estate”.

As for Russia’s professionalization, “journalism as a profession had a rather late start” with a strong censorship history, thus resulting in a self-censorship tradition until now. Another factor contributing to the self-censorship is that “formally declared freedom and autonomy of media professionals came into conflict with the efforts of the new owners”, deeply connected to the state and political elites, “to use these new professional values to further their own interests” rather than the public interests and social responsibility. Thus, to notch economic successes and avoid potential political risks, Russian journalists have become increasingly market-driven and apathetic to politics. Due to the different “professional identity“, Russian journalists have a dissimilar “literary style and attitude to facts and opinions“, which has restrained them from integration into Western journalism.

However, this statist media policy does not mean there is no freedom regarding the Russian media system’s political news. Admittedly, the state has strong influences on “television channels with national distribution“, which has been regarded as “the main source of information about Russia and the world“. By comparison, the pressure of the state has become weak and even non-existent in some less disseminated areas such as the television channel “REN-TV“, the radio station “Ekho Moskvy“, and the newspapers “Novaya Gazeta“, “Nezavisimaya Gazeta” and “Kommersant“, as well as almost the whole of the internet.

Therefore, it is possible to say that the duality of authoritarian attitudes to mass media and journalism—a statist media policy deeply rooted in the framework of state influence on media combined with the growing market-driven economy—has become the most crucial characteristic of the Russian media system“. To this extent, the Russian media system can be described as a statist commercialized model.

The Chinese media system as a state-dominated model

If there is still a likelihood to compare the Russian media system with the Mediterranean Model due to a certain extent of similarities, “bringing the Chinese media system into a worldwide comparative project is to bring one of the most dissimilar systems into the non-Western empirical reality“. Furthermore, if the role above of the state in the Russian media system can be portrayed as “strong influence”, the Chinese state’s position or the sole ruling party CPC in its media apparatus should be regarded as dominant. As mentioned, regarding the political news, Russians still enjoy some freedom in less influential media. In contrast, there is no autonomy in the Chinese press, with the omnipresent regulative measures such as media censorship and the internet Great Firewall in China. Thus, considering the state’s special role, the Chinese media system is far beyond the intervention framework in the West.

In fact, despite Deng Xiaoping’s reform, the Chinese media system of the post-Mao period has still applied the “different versions of Marxism and socialism” to “build socialism with Chinese characteristics” by “providing moral guidance to the population and engineering economic development and social change“. One of the most important reasons that may clarify this “guidance”, namely, strong and resilient media control, is the media ownership in China. It is undeniable that the post-Mao economic reforms have expanded the private capital to some areas that had been commanded by the Chinese government or state-owned enterprises for decades. However, Zhao argues that “in the media sector, although the Chinese state has not only drastically curtailed its role in subsidizing media operations but has also targeted the media and cultural sector as new sites of profit-making and capitalistic development, the state continues to restrict private capital, let alone the privatizing of existing media outlets”.

In fact, the Chinese state has opened the door to private and even foreign capital participation in “the media’s entertainment function” such as the film industry with the intention of profit-making. However, this profit-making entertainment also needs to be filtered by the ideological orientation of the state. More importantly, “the production and distribution of news and informational content” and the “ownership of news media outlets” have remained “monopolized by the state“. Furthermore, this monopoly also results in the fact that the state has appointed major media agencies’ leadership.

Despite the state’s overwhelming control, the Chinese media market has boomed for years since the economic reform of Deng Xiaoping, attributable to the power of marketization. For instance, in 2004, there were 6,580 daily newspapers published worldwide, and the number of daily newspapers published in China ranked first in the world, accounting for 14.5% of the global daily newspapers. However, the commercialization of the Chinese media industry has not surmounted the ideological control of the state. The media market has constituted “two distinct and yet institutionally intertwined press sectors or subsystems“. The first press sector is market-based as the film above industry, while the second is “the party organ sector“, which combines the duality of the political instrument and profit-making. This is because “most state media outlets no longer receive large government subsidies and have largely to depend on commercial advertising“. Nevertheless, rather than causing tensions, the dual roles the party organ sector plays have adopted and contained the marketization within the current political control by the statist implementation of “licensing system and the sponsor unit system“. Consequently, these two systems have guaranteed the predominance of the state over the commercialization and marketization.

As for the political parallelism, the state-dominated Chinese media system has top-level political instrumentalization, indicating “all the features of a quintessential party-press parallelism“. Almost all the media content should and, in practice, have revolved around the official ideology and slogan of the state. This is pertinent to another aspect of four dimensions, based on the theory and standard of Hallin and Mancini: the utterly low professionalization in Chinese journalism, where journalists have to successfully balance the “market forces and the party-press system” to obtain financial benefits and political security. Furthermore, Pan and Lu argue that Chinese journalists “do not fit their practices into the universal model of professionalism”, but “utilize and appropriate diverse and often conflicting ideas of journalism through their improvised and situated practices”, leading to the “truncated and fragmented in Chinese journalism”. Also, unlike the Western conception of relative objectivity in journalism, Hackett and Zhao create a term “regime of objectivity” to describe how Chinese journalists portray information on the precondition of conforming to the state ideology.

Therefore, due to its restricted commercialization and dominated state, Chan summarizes the Chinese media industry’s development as commercialization without independence. Drawing on the above, the Chinese media system can be described as a state-dominated model.

References

  • Chan, Joseph Man. “Commercialization without Independence: Trends and Tensions of Media Development in China”. In China Review 1993, edited by Joseph Cheng Yu-shek and Maurice Brosseau, 25.1 – 25.21. Hong Kong: Chinese University of Hong Kong Press, 1993.
  • de Smaele, Hedwig. “The Applicability of Western Media Models on the Russian Media System”. European Journal of Communication 14, no. 2 (1999): 173-89. https://doi.org/10.1177/0267323199014002002.
  • Dunn, John A. “Lottizzazione Russian Style: Russia’s Two-Tier Media System”. Europe-Asia Studies 66, no. 9 (2014): 1425-51. https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2014.956441.
  • Hackett, Robert A., and Yuezhi Zhao. Sustaining Democracy? Journalism and the Politics of Objectivity. Edited by Yuezhi Zhao. Toronto: University of Toronto Press Higher Education, 2000.
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  • ation, Society and Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004.
  • ———. “Ten Years after Comparing Media Systems: What Have We Learned?”. Political Communication 34, no. 2 (2017): 155-71. https://doi.org/10.1080/10584609.2016.1233158.
  • Hu, Zhengrong, Peixi Xu, and Deqiang Ji. “China: Media and Power in Four Historical Stages”. In Mapping Brics Media, edited by Kaarle Nordenstreng and Daya Kishan Thussu, 166-80. London ;: Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group, 2015.
  • Ivanitsky, Valerij. “Mass Media Market in Post-Soviet Russia [Рынок Сми В Постсоветской России]”. Bulletin of Moscow University, no. 6. (2009): 114–31. Retrieved from http://www.ffl.msu.ru/en/research/bulletin-of-moscow-university/.
  • Jones, Paul K., and Michael Pusey. “Political Communication and ‘Media System’: The Australian Canary”. Media, Culture & Society 32, no. 3 (2010): 451-71. https://doi.org/10.1177/0163443709361172.
  • Keane, John. The Media and Democracy. Cambridge, MA: Polity in association with Basil Blackwell, 1991.
  • Oates, Sarah. Television, Democracy, and Elections in Russia. Basees/Routledge Series on Russian and East European Studies. Abingdon, Oxon, England: Routledge, 2006.
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  • Sonczyk, Wieslaw “Media System: Scope—Structure—Definition”. Media Studies 3, no. 38. (2009). Retrieved from http://mediastudies.eu/.
  • Sosnovskaya, Anna. Social Portrait and Identity of Today’s Journalist: St. Petersburg-a Case Study. (Södertörn Academic Studies: 2000). https://bibl.sh.se/skriftserier/hogskolans_skriftserier/Russian_reports/diva2_16051.aspx.
  • Tiffen, Rodney. How Australia Compares. Edited by Ross Gittins. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004.
  • Vartanova, Elena. “The Russian Media Model in the Context of Post-Soviet Dynamics”. In Comparing Media Systems Beyond the Western World, edited by Daniel C. Hallin and Paolo Mancini, 119-42. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2012.
  • Wang, Guoqing. “China Newspaper Annual Development Report [中国报业年度发展报告]”. People’s Daily, August 5 2005. http://www.people.com.cn/.
  • Zhao, Yuezhi. “Understanding China’s Media System in a World Historical Context”. In Comparing Media Systems Beyond the Western World, edited by Daniel C. Hallin and Paolo Mancini, 143-74. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2012.
  • Zhou, Shuhua. “China: Media System”. In, edited by W. Donsbach2015.

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