With just days to go before Japan heads to the polls, U.S. President Donald Trump has made an unusually direct intervention, offering what he called his “complete and total endorsement” of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. The backing comes as Japan’s first female leader seeks a fresh mandate for an ambitious economic and defence agenda that has unsettled markets and alarmed Beijing in equal measure.
Opinion polls suggest Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner, Ishin, are heading for a comfortable victory in Sunday’s election, potentially securing around 300 seats in the 465-member lower house. If realised, the result would significantly strengthen her hand at home and abroad and give Trump a reliable partner in East Asia as he recalibrates U.S. policy toward China.
Markets Uneasy, Voters Calm
Takaichi’s campaign has revolved around easing the cost-of-living crisis, most notably through a pledge to suspend the 8% sales tax on food. That promise has rattled investors in a country already burdened with the heaviest public debt in the developed world.
In recent weeks, Japanese government bonds have come under pressure and the yen has weakened sharply, as markets fret over how Tokyo would cover an estimated 5 trillion yen annual revenue shortfall. Yet political reality cuts the other way. Rival parties are offering even more expansive tax cuts and spending plans, leaving analysts to argue that a decisive LDP win may represent the least destabilising outcome for markets.
For voters, the jitters in financial circles have done little to dent Takaichi’s appeal. Her approval ratings remain high, buoyed by a carefully cultivated image of decisiveness and competence and, unexpectedly, by a growing pop-culture following among younger supporters.
A Relationship Built on Symbolism
Takaichi’s ties with Trump date back to her first weeks in office. One of her earliest acts as prime minister was to host him in Tokyo, presenting him with a golf putter once owned by his late friend Shinzo Abe. The meeting was heavy on symbolism and substance: Trump praised her for breaking Japan’s glass ceiling, while Takaichi pledged billions in investment to underscore the strength of the U.S.–Japan alliance.
Trump’s latest endorsement goes further, promising a White House meeting on March 19 and casting Takaichi as a leader who “truly loves her country.” It also fits a broader pattern. The U.S. president has increasingly shown a willingness to publicly back foreign leaders he sees as ideological allies, from Argentina’s Javier Milei to Hungary’s Viktor Orban.
China in the Background, Again
The alliance with Washington has not come without complications. Weeks after her meeting with Trump, Takaichi triggered the worst Sino-Japanese diplomatic crisis in over a decade by openly discussing how Japan might respond to a Chinese attack on Taiwan.
According to sources, Trump later urged her privately not to further inflame tensions with Beijing, as he sought to preserve a fragile trade truce with China. A strong electoral mandate could now embolden Takaichi to push ahead with her defence agenda regardless, even as Beijing accuses her of reviving Japan’s militarist past.
Japan’s military build-up, already controversial, is likely to remain a flashpoint in regional politics, particularly if Takaichi interprets Sunday’s vote as popular approval for a tougher stance on China.
Analysis
Trump’s endorsement is less about Japan’s domestic politics than about signalling. By stepping so openly into Tokyo’s election, he is reinforcing a vision of global politics built around strong personalities, ideological alignment and transactional alliances. Takaichi, in that sense, fits perfectly: nationalist in tone, hawkish on security, and comfortable projecting strength.
For Japan, the gamble is double-edged. A decisive victory could stabilise leadership at a time of global uncertainty, but it may also deepen economic anxieties and sharpen tensions with China. For Trump, the move underscores his belief that foreign elections are fair game and useful tools in shaping a world order more sympathetic to his instincts.
The real test will come after the ballots are counted. If Takaichi wins big, she will emerge not just as Japan’s dominant political figure, but as a central pillar in Trump’s evolving strategy in Asia. Whether that brings stability or fresh friction will depend on how far both leaders are willing to push their shared appetite for disruption.
With information from Reuters.
