As an internationally recognized Egyptian expert on Chinese politics, the Malaysian National News Agency,“ BERNAMA, asked me to do an interview in conjunction with the upcoming 46th ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur and the ASEAN-GCC Joint Summit in Malaysia 2025. So, I have decided to analyze this matter with the consideration that “it seems that the relationship between China, the GCC, and ASEAN will remain hostage to the delicate balance between economics and politics, between shared interests and the deep-rooted differences between Washington and Beijing, and each party’s role in attracting the Gulf Cooperation Council countries to its side.”
However, in my view, this relationship between ASEAN, China, the USA, and the Gulf states GCC will likely lean toward improving the relationship with China, as a rising and neighboring power, in the face of the withdrawal policy adopted by US President “Donald Trump,” his aggressive economic policies, and his tariffs on China and the entire world. Particularly, China is trying to boost its investments with ASEAN countries and maintain good relations without reaching the stage of confrontation. In April 2023, China expressed its willingness to accelerate consultations with ASEAN countries on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, with the aim of reducing the possibility of maritime conflicts erupting in the region supported and led by the USA.
The past few decades have witnessed a remarkable shift in the nature of relations between China and its neighbors, particularly the ASEAN countries, which have transformed into a growing economic power. Its economy is ranked seventh in the world and comprises 10 countries: Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, and Brunei. Some countries, such as Cambodia and Laos, appear closer to Beijing and are sometimes accused of “speaking for China” within ASEAN. On the other hand, the United States supports the efforts of its ASEAN allies in confronting Chinese demands, as Washington conducts joint maritime patrols with the Philippines and provides military and technological assistance to countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia.
Additionally, the USA has strengthened its military and diplomatic presence with ASEAN countries, particularly through defense agreements with the Philippines and Thailand and close cooperation with Singapore and Vietnam. China views this as a direct threat to its regional security, accusing Washington of sowing “maritime strife” and encouraging countries to challenge Chinese claims in the South China Sea.
In 2020, Chinese Foreign Minister “Wang Yi” said that“the United States had become “the largest driver of militarization in the South China Sea” and “the most dangerous factor in the region.” In March 2023, China warned of “US provocations” after a US destroyer entered the territorial waters of China’s Xisha Islands without permission.
So, it’s impossible to discuss the relationship between China and its Asian neighbors, especially the ASEAN countries, and the joint summits between ASEAN and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries “GCC” without taking into account American policy and its role in the region. The United States of America still has a strong presence in the Asian region through a number of Washington’s allies in ASEAN, through its military bases, strategic alliances, and presence in the South China Sea, especially in the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore, as well as through its projects in the fields of technology and energy. In October 2024, the former US Secretary of State “Antony Blinken” said at the 2024 ASEAN Summit that “the United States will continue to support freedom of navigation and overflight in the Indo-Pacific region.”
The Belt and Road Initiative, announced by President “Xi Jinping” in 2013, plays a pivotal role in consolidating Chinese influence in the ASEAN region. Through infrastructure projects, it seeks to build logistics and trade networks that ensure safe and stable passage for its goods to the Indian Ocean.
The China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement is one of the most powerful catalysts for trade growth between the two parties, removing many customs restrictions and contributing to strengthening cross-border economic cooperation. China’s rise has had a positive impact on ASEAN countries, particularly through the transfer of production from China to these countries. China’s exports to ASEAN countries increased by approximately 14.2% in 2025 compared to the previous year, and Chinese companies invested approximately $24 billion in the manufacturing sector in ASEAN countries, with a significant focus on Vietnam and Malaysia.
Washington, along with its Western allies, has been strengthening alliances through the ASEAN countries in Southeast Asia for years in the face of China. These include the “ American Quad Alliance,” which includes the United States, Japan, India, and Australia, and the AUKUS security alliance led by the USA with Britain and Australia. The alliance began conducting naval patrols in the region in 2015 under the slogan “Protecting Freedom of Navigation” in the face of China. The USA is aiming to deepen its diplomatic, security, and defense cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region and work to address the challenges of the 21st century, also in an implicit reference to China.
Washington has also launched alternative initiatives to the Belt and Road Initiative, which is considered a symbol of Chinese economic and political influence. The most prominent of these is the “Economic Corridor Initiative,” announced by US President “Joe Biden” during the 2023 G20 Summit in New Delhi. This initiative connects India to the Middle East and Europe, includes investments in shipping and railways, and also connects India to parts of Europe via the India, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel.
In this regard, China has a significant role in the success of the ASEAN-GCC Summit in Malaysia 2025, while Malaysia is preparing to assume the 2025 ASEAN chairmanship at a pivotal moment, as global geopolitical and economic transformations intersect in ways that impact the region’s stability and development related to China and its competitors in the region and globally. This ASEAN presidency, co-chaired by Kuala Lumpur and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) with the participation of China, presents a golden opportunity for Malaysia to strengthen strategic cooperation between ASEAN, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and China. Malaysia hopes this will contribute to shaping a more balanced and independent international order amidst growing global challenges. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s announcement that Malaysia will host a joint summit comprising ASEAN, the GCC, and China reinforces the importance of this move as a strategy aimed at achieving multilateral cooperation and highlighting the role of multipolarity, particularly in economic areas. Therefore, Malaysia, as the main coordinator between the GCC, ASEAN, and China, intends to work more dynamically to strengthen ties with the Gulf states during its upcoming presidency.
Both Malaysia’s and China’s vision for the ASEAN chairmanship is based on three main pillars, which are politics and security, economics, and socio-cultural. In the security field, Malaysia and China seek to enhance cooperation between ASEAN and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries in confronting common threats, such as terrorism and piracy. As ASEAN continues to advance regionally and internationally toward its goals, Malaysia and China seek to enhance their role as a platform for economic and political cooperation at both the regional and international levels and as a bridge for cooperation with the Islamic world. In particular, positioning it to meet escalating challenges. The halal tourism sector between ASEAN and the GCC countries, sponsored by Malaysia, is considered a bridge between cultures, as efforts are underway to facilitate visa procedures and expand air links to boost tourist traffic. All these initiatives will enhance ASEAN’s role as an attractive tourist destination and contribute to strengthening popular and cultural ties between the two sides.
China is supporting Malaysia in the upcoming summit with the Gulf states in 2025 to highlight the concept of “ASEAN centrality” as a principle that supports the independence of ASEAN countries and enhances their ability to make their own decisions, independent of the influence of major powers such as China and the United States. This approach is evident in China and Malaysia’s support for a policy of neutrality, as it works to achieve a delicate balance in a region rife with geopolitical challenges. Cooperation between ASEAN and the GCC countries is not limited to the economic aspect but extends to the cultural and tourism fields, as China, with the assistance of Malaysia, seeks to make ASEAN a preferred destination for tourists from the Gulf countries.
China plays a key role in supporting trilateral cooperation between itself, ASEAN, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. China plays a key role in strengthening relations between ASEAN and the GCC through the Belt and Road Initiative, which has supported massive infrastructure projects in Southeast Asia. In addition, China has invested heavily in the renewable energy sector in the GCC, enhancing the possibility of establishing a trilateral cooperation framework encompassing ASEAN, the GCC, and China, focusing on sustainable development. Therefore, it is believed that this trilateral cooperation will contribute to building a regional model that contributes to achieving sustainable growth and enhancing regional stability. In November 2022, China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) jointly announced the formal launch of negotiations for the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement. This agreement will cover the following areas: trade in goods, investment, the digital economy, and the green economy.
With increasing Western talk of confronting China’s rise, particularly in the South China Sea, the contours of a complex, soft conflict are taking shape between the major powers in the region. As the international struggle for influence intensifies, ASEAN has become a battleground for military and economic alliances.
While Beijing promotes itself as ASEAN’s “developmental economic partner,” Washington views the Chinese presence as a threat to ASEAN’s global standing and its control of the region. Meanwhile, ASEAN countries are attempting to strike a balance between the two sides.
China is supporting the ASEAN’s orientation towards strengthening amid growing ties with countries around the world, particularly with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. China, through the ASEAN, occupies a significant position on the international scene, making it a target sought by major powers either to win its favor or at least to maintain its neutrality. According to the World Bank, the combined economic output of ASEAN member states has reached $3 trillion, making it the third-largest economy in Asia and the fifth-largest in the world, after the United States, China, Japan, and Germany. China encourages the ASEAN countries to maintain development, economic, or dialogue partnership agreements with more than 100 countries, most notably South Korea, Japan, Canada, the United States, and India. According to numerous reports by international economic institutions, ASEAN and China are ranked among the fastest-growing economic regions globally and regionally.
There is political will within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), under the sponsorship of China, to establish long-term institutional mechanisms, such as the ASEAN-GCC Development Fund and the Halal Innovation Council, that can support cooperation beyond the scope of bilateral relations between all parties.
ASEAN also explored a number of alternative financing structures and instruments with China’s direction, including Islamic finance to finance its energy network and setting global standards for ethical governance and development to enhance partnerships with the conservative societies of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and all Arab, Islamic, and Gulf countries. There is a current trend among ASEAN countries, led by China and Malaysia, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to conduct further research on the statistical implications of Islamic finance in national accounts, financing and investment issues, and other topics. There is also agreement on the need to develop practical guidelines on how to address Islamic finance transactions between ASEAN and the GCC countries. To this end, an agreement may be reached in the coming period to establish a working group on Islamic finance to address and understand its full implications.
The secret behind the ASEAN group, and the choice of Malaysia specifically to host the 2025 Gulf and ASEAN Summit and China’s infinity support, is its focus on economic objectives that transcend ideology, non-interference in the internal politics of countries, and a focus on development and joint investments for all. The emerging multipolar order requires middle powers such as the Gulf states and ASEAN to stick together and engage in a common dialogue to support multilateral relations, particularly political ones.
The holding of the 2025 Gulf Summit with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Malaysia with China’s help reflects the participating Gulf states’ appreciation for Kuala Lumpur’s regional and international standing with China and their commitment to establishing an ambitious future strategic partnership between ASEAN and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries through the joint cooperation framework for the next five years and the summit’s decisions and initiatives.
The importance of holding the Gulf Summit with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Malaysia with the presence of China lies in its being the most important summit at the level of heads of state. It reflects the openness of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to partnerships with influential blocs in the international community, most notably ASEAN under China and Malaysia’s direction, with the aim of strengthening the GCC’s global standing.
The 2025 ASEAN-GCC Summit aims to adopt the Joint Cooperation Framework for the Next Five Years (2024-2028), which includes political and security cooperation, economic and investment cooperation, and cooperation in the fields of tourism, energy, food and agricultural security, and social and cultural cooperation between China and all of the ASEAN-GCC members.
China is pushing the ASEAN regularly engages other countries in and beyond the Asia-Pacific region as key partners of the United Nations (“UN”), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Pacific Alliance, the Gulf Cooperation Council, the Southern Common Market, the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, and the Economic Cooperation Organization. China, through the ASEAN, maintains a global network of alliances and dialogue partners and is considered by many to be a global power, a center of unity and cooperation in the Asia-Pacific led by China, and a prominent and influential organization. China, through the ASEAN, participates in many international affairs and hosts diplomatic missions around the world. The success of the organization has been the driving force behind the creation of some of the largest trading blocs in history, such as the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
We must bear in mind that many countries around the world are shifting from globalization to building the concept of “regional and economic blocs” to enhance their capabilities within the bloc by exploiting their resources, increasing investment and trade exchange, and localizing technology and industry. The idea of the Association of ASEAN States is an incentive to enhance trade and investment among the GCC member states, activating the importance of joint work between the two parties with China to explore and exploit the available economic potential, especially in Malaysia and its Central Asian partners, members of ASEAN.
Regarding the importance of the ASEAN countries to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and the Middle East in general under China’s support, we find that the ASEAN bloc is one of the world’s largest trading partners, with its foreign trade exceeding $4 trillion in 2024, representing 8% of global trade in goods and services, while its intra-regional trade accounts for 48% of the value of its foreign trade. This reflects the interconnectedness of the ASEAN countries and their keenness with China to open their domestic markets to their interregional exports. Therefore, opening new markets for them within the GCC countries is a good model for effective cooperation between the two parties.
The GCC countries are racing to invest in ASEAN, including China. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) has entered the Southeast Asian energy sector through a joint oil refinery project in Vietnam and a partnership with Indonesia’s Pertamina to develop an oil refinery complex in East Java, Indonesia. Saudi Aramco announced a $7 billion investment with Petronas Petrochemical in Malaysia in 2017, the largest investment by the Saudi company outside the kingdom. Meanwhile, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) with China is seeking to increase its imports from the GCC, which accounted for only 6 percent of the total between 2016 and 2020. According to a 2021 economic report, electronics accounted for 28% of GCC imports from the association, followed by machinery at 12 percent.
Given the human resources, trade opportunities, and promising investment projects that the countries of the ASEAN, China, and GCC groups possess, the Gulf countries are eager to capitalize on these opportunities, emphasizing both parties’ commitment to joint international cooperation to achieve the goals of their peoples. Here, the Joint Action Plan between the GCC and ASEAN countries for the period 2024-2028 also outlines a clear roadmap for the two sides’ efforts to enhance cooperation and partnership in various fields, serving the interests of all.
ASEAN held its first summit with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, in 2023. It was the first summit of its kind with the GCC, with the participation of leaders from 16 Gulf and Asian countries. This summit reflected ASEAN’s openness under Chinese care to partnerships with influential blocs in the international community, including the GCC, with the aim of strengthening its global position as a new economic power. During the 2023 Riyadh Summit, Gulf leaders welcomed the accession of all GCC countries to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation between the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations “ASEA”N, based on shared interests and deep historical ties between the two sides.
During the 2025 ASEAN-GCC Cooperation Summit, leaders of participating countries are expected to exchange views on regional and international issues of common interest, particularly the Gaza issue, and issue a joint statement on the matter supported by China. They will also discuss ways to advance and develop the partnership to capitalize on available growth opportunities through cooperation between the dynamic regions of ASEAN, China, and the Arabian Gulf, in accordance with shared visions for the future of this partnership and the values embodied in the United Nations Charter.
The Gulf countries are a secure and reliable source of energy for both China and the bloc of ASEAN, with various sources, and in maintaining prices for the stability of global energy markets. They are rapidly pursuing sustainability requirements, clean, low-carbon energy technologies, and supply chains. The GCC countries also aspire to maximize the joint benefit of logistical resources and infrastructure, enhance cooperation in tourism and cultural activities to communicate between peoples, and establish diverse partnerships between the public and business sectors with China and ASEAN countries, thus achieving ambitious visions for a better future of prosperity, growth, and progress.
Over the past months and years, ASEAN has played a role in calming tensions between major economies (China and the USA). ASEAN has sought to defuse economic disputes between the US and China. Former US Secretary of State “Antony Blinken” and China’s top diplomat “Wang Yi” met on the sidelines of the ASEAN meetings in July 2023. On July 14, 2023, the US State Department announced in a statement that the meeting between ”Blinken and Wang Yi” included frank and constructive discussions on a range of bilateral, regional, and global issues, including areas of contention and potential areas of cooperation. At the time, US Secretary of State “Blinken” emphasized the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
China, through the ASEAN, is ranked among the world’s fastest-growing economic regions and has a high population density. The combined population of the ten ASEAN countries is 600 million, and the combined GDP of the ASEAN countries is estimated at more than $3 trillion, representing 9.13% of Asia’s GDP. Economic estimates predict a 4.64% growth by 2025, demonstrating the pivotal importance of ASEAN countries to the global economy. This has led to ASEAN accounting for 7% of total global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and 34% of FDI flows to Asia. ASEAN is also projected to become one of the world’s fastest-growing data centers over the next five years, surpassing North America and the Pacific Rim countries.
Cooperation between China and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is essential to maximize the benefits of their development in various (economic, commercial, and technological) fields. Both ASEAN and China rely on energy imports from the GCC, which indicates the exploitation of their resources in several economic sectors, including industry, trade, electricity, and energy security. Joint foreign investments between China, the GCC, and ASEAN must be increased, as well as benefit from technology transfer and localization, and build an economy that does not rely solely on energy. The volume of trade between China, ASEAN, and the Gulf states represents 10% of the global trade of the GCC states, while GCC exports to ASEAN constitute approximately 9% of their total exports. Furthermore, Gulf oil product exports constitute 73% of the GCC’s commodity exports to China and ASEAN, so cooperation between the two sides is essential.
In my view, ASEAN, with the auspices of China, has followed in the footsteps of the European Union by deciding to build the ASEAN Community, which consists of three pillars: the ASEAN Security Community, the ASEAN Economic Community, and the ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community. ASEAN countries with China have strong, robust economies that enable them to play a pivotal role in the global economic landscape. This makes economic and trade cooperation between ASEAN and China by the GCC countries and the Middle East countries fruitful and successful for all parties involved.
