With conflict spreading across the region and the death toll surpassing 1,000, America and Israel’s war on Iran shows no signs of slowing. Rather, the situation is rapidly escalating and poses serious geopolitical threats – from NATO retaliation to mass displacement, there is no end in sight to the damage that continued fighting may cause.
Great Power Positioning
Iran is largely fighting this war alone. Despite involvement from regional proxies (Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis), its past allies – Russia and China – have limited their involvement. Thus far, both powers have capped their support to issuing diplomatic statements and calls for restraint. Russia is strategically constrained by the war in Ukraine, which limits both its capacity and willingness to support Iran militarily. In terms of framing, the war in Ukraine has partially been sold to the Russian citizenry as a result of an alleged (unproven) genocide on Russian-speakers in Ukraine. To ally with the Islamic Republic, with its fraught history of tyranny and civilian murder, may weaken the Kremlin’s claim to a legitimate war in Ukraine.
China tends to avoid military commitments outside of its core security interests, and generally prioritises economic stability, trade and investment opportunities and energy supplies. China has stockpiled enough Iranian oil to last 100 days and maintains ties with Russia – ensuring access to Russian energy products. While both Russia and China supported Iran’s previous military development (technology transfers, training, arms cooperation), this support does not appear to extend to direct intervention.
Strategically, this conflict may actually stand to benefit both Russia and China. For China, US attention is thoroughly fixed on the Middle East, not the Indo-Pacific, and their ongoing campaign gives China the opportunity to observe US military capabilities and operational methods. Protracted conflict also means the potential depletion of US military stockpiles. Russia may also stand to gain indirectly from the war; higher oil prices due to serious supply constriction increases Russian revenue, and also means the US focus (and resources) are shifted away from occupation of Ukraine.
Regional Escalation
This conflict is already spreading across the Middle East, and has the potential to move far beyond. Israel has expanded strikes regionally to Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and Iranian/allied infrastructure in the wider region. Iran has subsequently retaliated against US military bases across Gulf States, and fighting increasingly involves proxy networks and allied militias. The death toll, already exceeding 1,000 (including civilians and combatants), is poised to significantly increase if the situation continues to follow these patterns of escalation.
Importantly, Iran has reportedly hit bases in Cyprus and Turkey, which risk drawing reluctant NATO countries into the conflict if attacked nations decide to trigger Article 5. Despite Starmer’s hope to avoid the mistakes of the past (following the US into Middle Eastern wars) and Spain’s staunch decision to remain uninvolved (met with anger from President Trump who threatened to halt US-Spanish trade), NATO countries may be left with no other choice but to stand against Iran.
Energy and Economic Consequences
The war is already having a severe impact on the global energy markets. Disruption to oil and gas flows in the Gulf region and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz (through which 20-30% of globally traded oil passes) has caused prices to rise sharply. This is due to fear of supply shortages, and further speculative trading can then amplify volatility. The longer-term risk premium only adds to global oil prices. This can have serious ripple effects on major energy importing economies and the global economy as a whole. Tanker insurance costs can rise sharply and shipping companies may avoid the region. Oil and gas prices can also have contagion effects on the prices of related commodities, and inflationary effects on nations that rely on inward energy shipments – as we saw throughout much of Europe in the early days of the Russian occupation of Ukraine.
For the European Union, rising energy prices mean serious economic vulnerability due to the existing reduction in Russian energy imports. If Iran’s oil is temporarily off the table, Europe will be increasingly reliant on US and Venezuelan (US-proxy) oil – putting the continent partially at the mercy of a leader who has already expressed displeasure at Europe’s progressive political activity, and partially reliant on other Middle Eastern states (like Saudi Arabia) who largely align themselves with the US anyway. China and India face similar quandaries, as the global energy markets are increasingly monopolised by America. China in particular is highly reliant on oil imports due to being a leading manufacturer; higher energy costs and supply contractions could reduce Chinese output.
Humanitarian Dimension
The ongoing conflict is intensifying humanitarian crises across the region. Israel has closed all crossings into Gaza since the beginning of its attack on Iran. Given that Israel controls around 60% of Palestine’s territory, and essentially all movements in and out of the country, almost all of Gaza’s food must be brought in. The occupied state is set to run out of food within a week; according to a Guardian interview, many Gazans fear another round of imposed starvation more than the shelling. Hospitals in Gaza are also struggling with shortages of electricity, medicines, and medical equipment, while treating large numbers of wounded civilians – famine will only strain these insufficient services further.
The escalation of fighting also threatens Lebanon, due the targeting of Hezbollah, and so civilian death tolls are beginning to rise. The strikes against Hezbollah are increasingly impacting densely-populated areas, leading to the destruction of homes and infrastructure. The destruction of this essential infrastructure (roads, electricity networks, communication systems) has significantly complicated evacuation and aid delivery. Thousands of civilians have already fled southern Lebanon for the north or for temporary shelter, but Lebanon’s fragile economic situation (strained by financial crisis and inflation) limits the state’s ability to support displaced populations. The risk of a secondary humanitarian crisis in Lebanon is growing.
International organisations (UN, major NGOs) have called for humanitarian corridors, ceasefires and expanded aid access. Multiple states have directed diplomatic pressure toward preventing further civilian harm and allowing aid deliveries into Gaza and affected Lebanese regions. However, with continued conflict, military campaigns and security risks, the ability for aid organisations to operate effectively is highly limited.
Conclusion
The war between the US, Israel and Iran represents one of the most dangerous geopolitical crises in recent years. The conflict may not be developing into a traditional bloc confrontation, but Iran’s being largely isolated from any great-power military support means their desperation could create globally-reaching consequences. Russia and China may benefit in the short-term from America’s distraction, but protracted conflict poses risks for both the Eastern hegemons and America’s reluctant Article 5 allies. At the regional level, proxy fighting, worsened humanitarian crises and neighbour-contagion effects set the stage for yet another deadly Middle Eastern conflict – the displacement effects of which will likely be felt for years to come as the new order takes shape.
