Iran and the United States are heading into high-stakes negotiations in Oman on Friday with expectations low and risks high. The talks, focused formally on Tehran’s nuclear programme, come amid mounting fears that a failure to bridge deep disagreements could tip the Middle East toward a wider regional war.
Both sides say they want diplomacy, but they are arriving in Muscat with sharply different ideas of what that diplomacy should cover. Washington wants a broad discussion encompassing Iran’s nuclear activities, ballistic missile programme, regional proxies and human rights record. Tehran insists the agenda be limited strictly to nuclear issues, warning that anything else crosses red lines.
Competing Agendas, Narrow Space
Iran has framed the talks as a test of American seriousness. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff are expected to meet under Omani mediation, with Tehran saying it seeks a “fair, mutually acceptable and dignified” nuclear understanding.
The United States, however, has made clear it sees Iran’s nuclear programme as inseparable from its regional behaviour. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has stressed that missiles, armed groups and domestic repression all factor into Washington’s assessment, setting up a fundamental clash over scope before negotiations even begin.
That disconnect alone makes any breakthrough unlikely.
Military Pressure Looms Over Diplomacy
The talks are unfolding under the shadow of force. President Donald Trump has openly warned that “bad things” could happen if diplomacy fails, while the United States has surged naval assets into the region in what Trump has called a massive “armada.”
Iranian leaders fear that negotiations could merely be a prelude to strikes. Tensions escalated further after a violent Iranian crackdown on nationwide protests last month, sharpening hostility in Washington and reinforcing Tehran’s sense of vulnerability.
Iran, for its part, has warned that any attack would draw a harsh response and that neighbouring states hosting U.S. bases could be dragged into the conflict.
Missiles as a Message
Just hours before talks were due to begin, Iranian state television aired footage of the deployment of the Khorramshahr-4, one of the country’s most advanced long-range ballistic missiles, at an underground Revolutionary Guards facility. The timing was unmistakable.
Tehran has repeatedly ruled out negotiations over missiles or defence capabilities, portraying them as essential to deterrence. The deployment appears designed to underline that position and to remind Washington that pressure cuts both ways.
Nuclear Flexibility, With Limits
Despite the brinkmanship, Iran has quietly signalled some willingness to compromise on uranium enrichment. Iranian officials have indicated flexibility on handing over large stockpiles of highly enriched uranium and even accepting zero enrichment under a consortium model, while still insisting that Iran’s right to enrich uranium cannot be surrendered outright.
Iran maintains its nuclear programme is peaceful, a claim rejected by the U.S. and Israel. The issue has grown even more fraught since U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June, following an Israeli bombing campaign. Tehran says enrichment has since stopped, though scepticism remains widespread.
A Weakened Iran, A Riskier Moment
Regionally, Iran enters the talks in a weakened position. Israel’s sustained attacks have battered Tehran’s network of allies from Hamas and Hezbollah to the Houthis and Iraqi militias and the fall of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad has stripped Iran of a key strategic partner.
Paradoxically, that weakness may make diplomacy harder, not easier. Leaders who feel cornered are often less willing to concede, particularly on issues tied to sovereignty and deterrence.
Analysis
These Oman talks feel less like the start of a diplomatic process and more like a final test of whether diplomacy still has meaning between Washington and Tehran. The agenda gap is vast, trust is almost nonexistent, and military pressure is being applied so openly that it risks overwhelming any space for compromise.
Iran may offer limited nuclear concessions, but not enough for Washington to claim a decisive victory. The United States, meanwhile, appears unwilling to decouple nuclear restraint from Iran’s broader regional role. That mismatch makes a genuine breakthrough improbable.
What makes this moment especially dangerous is that both sides seem to believe time is running out. If diplomacy fails, escalation will no longer feel hypothetical. Oman may offer neutral ground, but neutrality alone cannot bridge a standoff where each side doubts the other’s intentions and believes it can survive, or even benefit from, confrontation.
The talks may avert war for now. They are unlikely to end the crisis.
With information from Reuters.
