Why the Tiananmen Square Tactics Will Backfire Against Iran

The late 2025 to early 2026 Iranian protests are seen as the culmination of decades of negligence, mismanagement, and brutal repression by the ruling mullahs of Tehran. As Iran’s population turned more liberal, the archaic rules of the Islamic Republic became more incompatible.

Amid nationwide protests after the socioeconomic situation started to collapse, instead of meeting some of the demands to alleviate poverty for millions of Iranians, Tehran doubled down on violence and potentially murdered tens of thousands of protesters. The brutality of live fire orders mirrored Tiananmen Square but may have consequences in the long run for a country that is failing to manage itself internally.

Despite a potential looming threat of military action by either the United States or Israel, the Iranian regime unlike other crackdowns may not escape this one as unlike the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in the 1980s, Tehran doesn’t have the factors to keep its rule afloat in the long run.

Iranian Protests and Brutal Repression

Starting on December 28th, 2025, Iranians took to the streets after months of deteriorating conditions became too pertinent to ignore anymore. A currency collapse, numerous wars Iranian civilians didn’t want to involve themselves in, and a major drought that has decimated Iran’s water system led to increased tensions, and the protests quickly became nationwide.

Instead of meeting with protestors and negotiating potential solutions to the crisis, the mullahs, under orders from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini, moved to violent repression. Initially tear gas, pellet fire, and beatings were used against protestors, but the tactics only caused civilians to gain strength and momentum.

Tiananmen Square-Style Crackdowns

Already under pressure due to much of their capabilities being incapacitated by the 12-Day War with Israel, the regime may see themselves in the eyes of the Iranian people as ‘weak’ and has used the uprising to reassert authority. Reports circulated of live fire being used against protesters, and the regime moved to a nationwide internet blackout to hide crimes of atrocities not seen in a major uprising since Tiananmen Square.

According to a report by the Human Rights Activist News Agency, upwards of 6,000 protests may have been killed by the regime’s Basij and IRGC forces, with another 18,000 waiting to be verified. In some more conservative figures, Iran International states anywhere between 3,000 to 12,000 protestors have been estimated to have been killed by the regime as of January 13th.

What made the killings more haunting was the speed of love, fire orders, and death tolls that came with it. During the Tiananmen Square crackdown and massacre, upwards of 1,000 Chinese civilians were violently repressed and killed in less than 48 hours. Iran may see a death toll of at least 20,000 in two weeks, with silent executions taking place concurrently.

Why the Ruling Mullahs Can’t Come out Unscathed Unlike the CCP

Though many of the nationwide protests have been suppressed, the ruling mullahs do not have as strong of a hand as they want. Unlike the Tiananmen Square, the 2026 massacre against Iranian protesters has far-reaching consequences for the Khomeinists and the wider Middle East.

During the height of the Tiananmen Square protests and crackdown, the CCP had several things going for them in a positive way to avoid international repercussions and reprisals.

First, China’s economic trajectory increased under Chairman Deng Xiaoping, and because of the rising economy, the CCP could successfully distract the general public from other socioeconomic problems. With an economy that rivals America in exports, no country was willing to risk harming relations with China, regardless of their human rights abuses.

Secondly, China is a United Nations Security Council member and with veto power, no international or embargoes could be conducted. Lastly, being a nuclear power with one of the largest militaries, there would be no help for Tiananmen Square protesters or any future civilian uprising against CCP rule.

The Islamic Republic does not have the same luxury as China did in Tiananmen Square. Iran is increasingly isolated in the Middle East as its top proxies such as Hezbollah and Hamas suffered significant losses against Israel.

Tehran also does not have solidified mutual defense pacts. Though receiving supplies and past diplomatic support from Russia, China, and North Korea, neither of these three countries is willing to directly intervene to save the Iranian regime.

Lastly, Israel and the United States set Iran’s nuclear program several months to a year back, which took away a potential deterrent from international reprisals. Initially, the United States Navy was stretched thin between the Indo-Pacific and Caribbean and could not immediately respond to the crackdowns against Iranian protesters.

Today, the U.S. has the assets it needs to either fully deter the Islamic Republic from more whole-scale massacres against its citizens, decimate its remaining missile stockpiles, or attempt a decapitation of Tehran’s leadership echelons.

Compared to China in 1989 Tiananmen Square, the Mullahs of Iran will not escape repressive massacres unscathed. The CCP has the international standing, diplomatic soft power, full control of social media, and nuclear weapons to protect from external threats, whereas the Khomeinists are now weakened and vulnerable after failed ventures, gross mismanagement, and a growingly progressive population that cannot be deterred through perpetual force.