Vietnam’s top leader To Lam used his opening address at the Communist Party congress in Hanoi to pledge annual economic growth of more than 10% through 2030, despite what he described as overlapping global and domestic challenges. The once-in-five-years congress will determine the party chief the most powerful position in the single-party system and set the country’s economic direction for the rest of the decade. Lam, a former public security chief, is seeking to retain his post as party leader and may also assume the state presidency, consolidating power further at a critical political moment.
Why it matters:
A sustained growth target above 10% is highly ambitious for a middle-income economy facing global trade tensions, climate risks, and supply chain disruptions. If achieved, it would transform Vietnam’s economic standing in Asia and strengthen the Communist Party’s legitimacy at home. Failure, however, could expose the limits of state-led growth and undermine confidence among investors and citizens alike.
Economic strategy and reforms:
Lam has tied high growth to deeper reforms, including cutting red tape, expanding global trade, and accelerating infrastructure development. He has already overseen Vietnam’s most significant bureaucratic overhaul in decades, a move welcomed by foreign investors but criticized domestically as tens of thousands of civil servants lost their jobs. His message to the congress stressed faster approvals and pragmatism over procedural caution.
Trade and external pressures:
Vietnam’s export-led model faces mounting pressure. Although 20% U.S. tariffs imposed by the Trump administration in August have not yet slowed exports Vietnam recorded a record trade surplus with Washington the impact is expected to grow in coming months. As a result, Hanoi is actively seeking to diversify trade partnerships to reduce reliance on the U.S. market and shield growth from geopolitical shocks.
Power dynamics and security:
Lam has strengthened state security, expanding police authority to vet laws and oversee business activity, while simultaneously intensifying rivalry with the army, which controls large economic assets. This rebalancing of power within the state apparatus has raised concerns about over-securitisation of economic governance, even as Lam presents it as necessary for stability and reform.
Infrastructure push:
Infrastructure remains central to Lam’s growth vision. Vietnam plans new rail links to China, a nationwide high-speed rail network costing nearly $70 billion, and additional airports near major cities. While these projects support short-term growth and connectivity, critics warn of inefficiency, weak coordination, and the risk of waste, especially as some existing transport hubs remain poorly linked to urban centres.
Analysis:
Lam’s speech reflects a high-risk, high-reward strategy: rapid growth through reform, infrastructure spending, and tighter political control. His approach aligns with a developmental-state model but leans more heavily on security institutions than in the past, raising questions about long-term institutional balance. In the short term, ambitious targets and decisive leadership may reassure investors and party elites. In the longer run, sustaining double-digit growth will depend less on grand pledges and more on whether Vietnam can manage trade diversification, curb inefficiencies, and prevent security-driven governance from stifling innovation. The congress will therefore not just decide Lam’s political future, but also whether Vietnam doubles down on speed or pauses to consolidate its gains.
With information from Reuters.
