NEWS BRIEF
Russia’s top military commander, General Valery Gerasimov, has ordered troops to continue carving out “buffer zones” inside Ukraine’s Sumy and Kharkiv regions to protect Russian border areas from attack. The directive, endorsed by President Vladimir Putin, reframes territorial expansion as a defensive necessity, signaling Moscow’s intent to permanently control newly captured areas even as peace negotiations continue.
WHAT HAPPENED
- General Valery Gerasimov instructed Russian forces to continue creating buffer zones in Ukraine’s Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts during a visit to a command post of the “North” military grouping.
- The stated goal is to protect Russian border regions like Kursk and Belgorod from Ukrainian strikes, framing the offensive as defensive.
- Gerasimov claimed Russian forces have seized about 950 square kilometers and 32 settlements in the two regions, though Reuters could not verify these figures.
- President Putin previously called the buffer zones “very important” following Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk in August 2024.
WHY IT MATTERS
- The order institutionalizes territorial conquest under the guise of security, creating a potential fait accompli that could be presented as non-negotiable in peace talks.
- It reveals Russia’s strategy to formalize control over occupied areas through military means before any diplomatic settlement, complicating potential Ukrainian territorial recovery.
- The buffer zone narrative aims to justify further offensives to domestic and international audiences by linking them to retaliation for Ukraine’s cross-border operations.
- By focusing on Sumy and Kharkiv, regions far from the core Donbas conflict, Russia signals its willingness to open new fronts and expand war aims.
IMPLICATIONS
- Ukraine may face increased pressure along its northern border, stretching already thin defensive resources and potentially enabling deeper Russian advances.
- The buffer zone strategy could become a permanent feature of Russia’s occupation, involving depopulation, fortification, and separation from Ukrainian-controlled territory.
- Peace negotiations will be further complicated as Russia adds “security guarantees” in the form of occupied territory to its list of demands.
- Western military aid may need to adjust to support Ukraine’s defense in these northern regions, which have received less focus than the Donbas or southern fronts.
This briefing is based on information from Reuters.
