The year 2026 has begun. In Asian–Eastern culture, people traditionally wish for a year of peace and prosperity. However, what unfolded in 2025 may well continue into 2026.
Firstly, the U.S.–China conflict will dominate global affairs in 2026. In 2025, the United States under Donald Trump maintained maximum pressure on China in order to curb Beijing’s escalating actions. The objective of U.S. policymakers has been to delay China’s future moves in Europe, as Russia is receiving substantial economic backing from Beijing. At the same time, “tying down” China in the Pacific helps prevent Beijing from intervening in other regions, which could otherwise force the United States to stretch its resources thin and reduce the effectiveness of strategies formulated by policymakers. In addition, Washington is also seeking to protect Taiwan, as many sources assert that China may resort to the use of force against the island.
After releasing its 2025 National Security Strategy, the United States explicitly identified China as its foremost competitor, signaling that in the period ahead, Asia and the Indo-Pacific are likely to witness intensified confrontation—and potentially escalation—between China and the United States, along with U.S. partners and allies.
Secondly, the Thailand–Cambodia conflict will continue to reflect regional instability. The conflict between the two countries since the beginning of the year has not merely been a territorial dispute rooted in nationalism, but also a manifestation of great-power involvement in the region, primarily by the United States and China. Viewed on the map, mainland Southeast Asian countries are experiencing significant influence from these two powers: Myanmar is witnessing China’s growing presence through infrastructure projects; Thailand shows increasing U.S. engagement; and Cambodia reflects deepening Chinese involvement. In practice, when Thailand forms a government that strengthens ties with China, Cambodia tends to move closer to the United States, and vice versa. This suggests that the Thailand–Cambodia conflict represents a smaller-scale version of the U.S.–China rivalry in Southeast Asia, as both sides seek to expand their influence in the region. For China, Southeast Asia is a critical area for its global leadership ambitions. Accordingly, Beijing will seek to expand overlapping spheres of influence to ensure the uninterrupted implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Following the ASEAN meeting on December 22, 2025, Thailand and Cambodia failed to reach an agreement and even publicly criticized each other’s proposals. After that, both two countries reached agreement on December 27, but it is considered very fragile because it only lasts 72 hours. Although the conflict has not yet reached its peak, its short-term escalation has already caused economic losses amounting to billions of dollars for both countries. Therefore, in 2026, the prolonged Thailand–Cambodia conflict is likely to further exacerbate instability in Asia, hinder regional economic growth, and potentially affect the global economy.
In conclusion, Asia in 2025 was marked by conflicts, with the U.S.–China rivalry serving as the primary driving force. In 2026, the global situation is expected to remain complex and unpredictable, as European countries such as France and Germany have repeatedly sought to deepen cooperation with China, while Beijing has also frequently articulated its positions regarding the Russia–Ukraine conflict. France’s and Germany’s engagement with China is intended to safeguard their strategic standing vis-à-vis the United States and to help address the Russia–Ukraine war. This dynamic may compel the United States to divert more resources to Europe, creating power vacuums and potentially pushing the situation in Asia toward significant escalation driven by China.
