How the War in Ukraine Could End: Scenarios for a Peace Deal

U. S. President Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a possible peace deal to end the war in Ukraine. Recently, a set of U. S. draft proposals for peace was leaked, but European powers have proposed their own counter-proposals. U. S. and Ukrainian officials have held discussions in Geneva and Florida but have not shared details about their conversations.

In terms of territory, Russia currently controls around 116,000 square kilometers of Ukraine, which is more than 19% of the country. This includes areas like Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk, which Russia claims as its own, although the United Nations and most of the international community do not recognize these claims as legal. Under the initial U. S. proposals, Ukraine would have to withdraw from parts of Donbas it controls, which would be recognized as Russian territory. Conversely, the European counter-proposal suggests that Ukraine should not use force to recapture any territory currently controlled by Russia. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy has expressed that some territories might be recognized temporarily as occupied but ruled out any permanent recognition of Russian control.

Putin’s primary demand for ending the war is that NATO stop expanding eastward. The initial U. S. proposals included commitments that Ukraine would not join NATO, enshrined in the constitution, and that NATO would revise statutes to ensure Ukraine’s non-membership in the future. The European counter-proposal changes this by stating that Ukraine’s NATO membership would depend on a consensus of NATO members. NATO has previously agreed that Ukraine could become a member in the future. Trump has commented that U. S. support for Ukraine’s NATO membership contributed to the conflict, suggesting that Ukraine would not gain membership.

Security guarantees are also a key issue. Ukraine wants strong guarantees to prevent future attacks, while Russia has demanded limits on Ukraine’s military size and insisted on neutrality. The U. S. is cautious about guarantees that could involve NATO in a potential conflict with Russia. Ukraine and its allies argue that Russia cannot be a trusted guarantor of neutrality, which would leave Europe vulnerable. Moscow has claimed the need for protection for Russian speakers in Ukraine, but Kyiv argues that no restrictions on its military are acceptable.

Regarding financial matters, initial U. S. proposals aim to reintegrate Russia into the global economy and invite it back into the G8, from which it was suspended after the annexation of Crimea. The U. S. plans to negotiate long-term cooperation on various sectors, including energy and infrastructure. Meanwhile, EU leaders are looking to use frozen Russian assets to support a loan for Ukraine, a move that Russian officials claim would be illegal.

There are also discussions about nuclear arms control, the future of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Russian-controlled territory, and the possibility of U. S. companies investing in Russia’s natural resources. Additionally, Washington has proposed holding elections in Ukraine, but Kyiv asserts that elections cannot occur under martial law while the country is defending itself against Russia.