Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Monday that the new OPEC+ mechanism for assessing members’ maximum production capacity will help stabilise global oil markets and fairly allocate future output quotas. The group, which includes OPEC members and allies led by Russia, approved the updated capacity-assessment system to determine baseline production levels from 2027.
OPEC+ has for years struggled with disagreements over how production quotas are assigned, especially as some producers like the United Arab Emirates have increased their output capacity and pushed for higher quotas. Others, particularly several African members, have seen declining capacity and opposed cuts. These tensions contributed to Angola’s exit from the alliance in 2024. The newly adopted system is meant to bring a uniform, technical approach to measuring each country’s true production potential.
Why It Matters
The new mechanism is positioned as a way to bring greater transparency and predictability to global oil supply at a time when markets remain sensitive to geopolitical disruptions and changing demand patterns. By rewarding members who invest in expanding capacity, the system could shape long-term production strategies and influence global energy prices. Stable and predictable output levels also help major energy-importing nations gauge supply security.
Stakeholders
The key stakeholders include Saudi Arabia and Russia, the de facto leaders of the coalition, whose alignment remains central to OPEC+ cohesion. Producers with rising capacity, like the UAE, have a strong interest in the new framework, while African members—struggling with declining output—face pressure to accept potentially lower quotas. Global oil consumers, energy markets, and multinational energy companies are indirectly affected by decisions that influence price and supply stability.
What’s Next
The evaluation of each member’s maximum production capacity will take place from January to September 2026. These findings will then shape the 2027 output quotas, setting the stage for how responsibilities are shared within the alliance. For now, OPEC+ has agreed to keep production levels unchanged through the first quarter of 2026. The next year will likely be marked by technical assessments, diplomatic bargaining, and attempts to prevent further fragmentation within the group.
With information from Reuters.
