NATO’s deterrence efforts appear to be working for now. After Russian drones entered Polish airspace and fighter jets violated Estonia’s skies last month, the alliance’s rapid response sent a clear signal to Moscow. U.S. and European officials say Russia seems to be exercising more caution, but its hybrid tactics drone incursions, cyberattacks, and disinformation are far from over.
Why It Matters
The incidents mark the first time NATO has fired on Russian targets since the start of the Ukraine war, raising the stakes of any miscalculation. With winter approaching and Ukraine bracing for renewed Russian strikes, NATO’s air defence posture and unity are under intense scrutiny. Any escalation could trigger a broader confrontation between Moscow and the alliance.
NATO and the U.S., Reinforcing deterrence and aiding Ukraine with Patriot systems.
Russia, Testing NATO’s resolve through airspace violations and hybrid tactics.
Eastern European states (Poland, Estonia, Baltics), Frontline members facing direct pressure.
European Commission, Pushing for new defence initiatives, including a counter-drone system and fortified borders.
What’s Next
NATO is accelerating plans to build a coordinated counter-drone deterrence network and strengthen eastern defences by 2030. The alliance will continue supplying Ukraine with missile defence systems while monitoring Russian activity across Europe’s airspace. Moscow’s next moves whether subtle provocations or overt challenges will test how far NATO’s deterrence can go before being drawn into direct confrontation.
With information from Reuters.
