Hamas has criticized Donald Trump, calling him a racist and expressing concerns over his vision for Gaza. However, a significant phone call last month shifted Hamas’s perspective on Trump, leading them to believe he could facilitate a peace deal between Israel and Hamas, even if Hamas gave up hostages that currently give them leverage. During a prior meeting at the White House, Trump put Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the line to apologize to Qatar’s prime minister for an Israeli strike in Doha that targeted Hamas leaders but did not kill them. This event fostered trust in Hamas towards Trump’s ability to confront Netanyahu and seriously pursue peace in Gaza.
Recently, Hamas signed onto a ceasefire organized by Trump, committing to release hostages without a comprehensive agreement for full Israeli withdrawal. Two Palestinian officials from Hamas admitted that this move is risky, depending on Trump’s commitment to ensuring the deal does not fail. They feared that Israel might resume military operations after the hostages were released, as had occurred after a previous ceasefire earlier in the year. Despite these risks, Hamas took steps to sign the ceasefire during indirect talks with Israel in Sharm el-Sheikh, reassured by the presence of Trump’s advisors and regional leaders.
Trump’s influence was palpable in the conference center, with him making multiple personal calls during discussions. His team, including Jared Kushner and envoy Steve Witkoff, facilitated negotiations between Israeli and Qatari representatives. While the ceasefire could potentially end the conflict that began after Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, there is uncertainty about the future steps outlined in Trump’s Gaza plan.
Trump’s response to the Qatar bombing, alongside the ceasefire that ended Israel’s earlier war with Iran, bolstered Hamas’s confidence that he would prevent Israel from resuming hostilities after the hostages were freed. His aides recognized the opportunity to use Trump’s frustration towards Netanyahu over the Qatar strike to apply pressure to reach a peace framework. Trump’s connections with Gulf states and his friendship with the Qatari emir enhanced his credibility with Hamas and other actors, leading them to believe in his commitment to a ceasefire.
Hamas also observed Trump’s public demand for both Iran and Israel to cease hostilities, including his ultimatum to Israeli forces regarding air raids on Iran after announcing a ceasefire. This public stance contributed to their impression that Trump followed through on his promises. Moreover, Turkey’s intelligence chief’s involvement in the talks was seen as pivotal due to Turkey’s close relationship with Hamas and Erdogan’s recent discussions with Trump, in which he was asked to help encourage Hamas to accept the peace plan.
The situation remains complex, as Israel will maintain control over parts of Gaza, and Hamas will continue to exist despite the pressure to relinquish its weapons. The dynamic between the two parties could ultimately facilitate further negotiations. In the discussions, mediators successfully helped Hamas realize that holding hostages had become a liability instead of leverage, which diminished global support for the Palestinian cause. The group came to see that releasing the hostages could prevent Israel from using those circumstances to justify renewed hostilities.
Despite accepting verbal assurances from the U. S., Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey regarding progressing toward a broader peace deal, Hamas did not receive any formal written guarantees. They are aware of the inherent risks if Israel decides to take advantage of the situation or retaliate for any attacks initiated by Hamas or its allies. However, the climate felt distinct from past ceasefires, with Hamas sensing a genuine willingness from Israel to make a deal, influenced by pressure from various parties.
Trump’s anticipated visit to the Middle East is expected to further ensure the continuation of this ceasefire, with officials describing the invitation from Egyptian President al-Sisi as a clever maneuver.
With information from Reuters