A senior Taiwanese military officer has warned that a Russian victory in Ukraine could embolden China to step up its aggression towards Taiwan. Speaking at the Warsaw Security Forum in Poland, Hsieh Jih-Sheng, deputy chief of the general staff for intelligence, said Taipei is closely studying Ukraine’s defence strategies to prepare for a potential Chinese attack. His appearance in Europe was highly unusual, reflecting Taiwan’s effort to expand its international security dialogue despite Beijing’s opposition.
Why It Matters
The warning underscores Taiwan’s attempt to link its security to Europe’s, framing the conflict in Ukraine and the threat from China as interconnected challenges. If Ukraine is defeated, Beijing may interpret it as evidence that the West lacks staying power, potentially lowering the costs of coercion against Taiwan. For Western powers, the possibility of simultaneous crises in Ukraine and the Taiwan Strait would stretch military and political resources, creating a two-front geopolitical challenge.
Taiwan: Urged Europe to see Taiwan’s security as tied to global stability, stressing lessons from Ukraine on cyber defence, disinformation, and asymmetric warfare.
China: Criticised Taiwan’s participation in the Warsaw forum, accusing Taipei of exaggerating the “China threat.”
Europe: Some Central and Eastern European states have grown more sympathetic to Taiwan since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, though most maintain formal ties with Beijing, limiting open support.
Russia: Through joint drills with China, Moscow is seen by Taipei as potentially emboldening Beijing and complicating Western deterrence efforts.
Future Outlook
Taiwan’s strategy is to position itself as part of the same security equation as Ukraine, pressing Europe to treat its stability as a shared interest. If Ukraine withstands Russia, it strengthens deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. But a Ukrainian defeat could embolden China, intensifying military pressure on Taiwan. For now, European support is more likely to take the form of political backing, intelligence cooperation, and cyber expertise, rather than direct defence aid. The coming years will test whether the West can maintain enough cohesion to counter authoritarian pressures in both Europe and Asia simultaneously.
With information from Reuters.
