Guinea will hold its first presidential election since the 2021 military coup on December 28, in a vote that could determine whether the West African nation transitions back to civilian rule or extends military dominance.
Colonel Mamady Doumbouya seized power in a coup three years ago, part of a wave of military takeovers across West and Central Africa. Since then, Guinea has been governed by a transitional framework that barred junta members from contesting elections.
That framework has now been replaced by a new constitution, approved in a referendum earlier this month and upheld by the Supreme Court. The new charter extends presidential terms from five to seven years (renewable once), creates a Senate, and crucially, removes restrictions preventing junta leaders from running.
Although Doumbouya has not confirmed his candidacy, critics argue the timing and content of the constitutional changes suggest he may intend to stay in power. Opposition groups also questioned official turnout figures — reported at 92% with 89% voting in favor, pointing to empty polling stations and alleging inflated numbers.
Why It Matters
Guinea’s vote will test whether military-led transitions in Africa can deliver genuine democracy or merely entrench strongmen in power. The country is strategically important: it holds the world’s largest bauxite reserves and one of the richest untapped iron ore deposits at Simandou, making it central to global commodity markets. International investors and regional powers alike will watch closely.
Guinea’s Transitional Government, Led by Doumbouya, it seeks legitimacy through elections but faces skepticism over fairness and inclusivity. The new constitution gives the junta room to consolidate power.
Opposition Parties and Civil Society, Contest both the referendum results and the credibility of the upcoming vote, demanding transparency and international oversight. Their ability to mobilize could influence legitimacy.
Regional Bloc ECOWAS, Has pressured coup regimes across West Africa to restore civilian rule. How it responds to Guinea’s election will set a precedent for handling other transitions.
Global Mining Companies,With billions invested in Guinea’s bauxite and iron ore sectors, companies are directly affected by political stability and contract certainty.
Guinea’s Citizens, Many hope for stability and democratic governance, but skepticism runs deep after years of authoritarian rule and unfulfilled promises.
What Lies Ahead
If the election is viewed as free and fair, Guinea could mark a turning point in West Africa’s recent cycle of coups. However, if Doumbouya runs and wins amid disputed conditions, the vote may entrench military rule under a democratic veneer. Either way, the outcome will have implications for regional stability, Guinea’s international standing, and the global resource market.
With information from Reuters.
