In the realm of international relations, Realist Hegemony Theory defines hegemony as a powerful state (or even multiple states) that possesses the material capability to alter and enforce the rules of the international system. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, a unipolar world order centered around the United States, was seen as dangerous by many global experts like Noam Chomsky. However, with China’s emergence as a global economic power and the rise of an ambitious Putin in Russia during the first decade of the 21st century, many began to dream of a multipolar or bipolar world order.
It’s no surprise that the recent growth and expansion of alternative economic organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS, led by China and Russia, outside the World Bank and the IMF, have fueled this possibility. Iran maintains close ties with both China and Russia, two major powers positioned against the US and the West in this ever-emerging polarization. In recent times, under various US sanctions, China has become Iran’s largest business and export partner. Oil, in particular, is noteworthy as it’s the lifeline of Iran’s economy. According to Reuters, China processes nearly 90% of Iran’s transportable oil. Furthermore, Iran plays a significant role in China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Iran’s relationship with Russia has also been deeply entrenched for a long time. The two nations have collaborated extensively on nuclear enrichment programs, missile technology, and oil supply. Their shared experience of facing US and Western sanctions has brought them even closer. In Russia’s prolonged campaign against Ukraine, Iran has supplied missiles, drones, and artillery, with the ‘Shahed’ drone, in particular, becoming an integral part of Russia’s arsenal. Analyzing the roles of China and Russia, the two countries leading this new polarization, during Israel’s recent attack on Iran and the subsequent 12-day war, helps us understand the true extent of a multipolar or bipolar world order under Realist Hegemony Theory.
Firstly, let’s look at Russia’s role after the Israeli attack. Immediately following the attack, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. During the call, Putin expressed his “condolences” for Iran’s irreparable losses and condemned the Israeli attack, stating it was a “violation of the UN Charter and international law.” The following day, Putin spoke with US President Donald Trump, offering to mediate if necessary, and again condemned the Israeli attack. Simultaneously, on June 22nd, Russia strongly condemned the US attack on Iran’s Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear facilities. They denounced any attack on a sovereign nation, regardless of justification, as a “serious violation of international law, the UN Charter, and UN Security Council resolutions.” Subsequently, Russia, along with China and Pakistan, put forward a proposal for a ceasefire between Iran and Israel in the UN Security Council, which was vetoed by the US. Additionally, immediately after the attack, the Iranian parliament ratified the TCSP (Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership) agreement with Russia. Although the agreement was signed by the two presidents in January, it is not a defense treaty. It does not obligate either party to provide military assistance if attacked. Rather, it merely ensures that neither party will assist their adversary.
China played a somewhat similar role. Chinese President Xi Jinping stated in a declaration, “If the Middle East remains unstable, the world will not be at peace.” He also urged the warring parties, especially Israel, to implement an immediate ceasefire. Subsequently, China supported Putin’s call for mediation. Like Russia, China also strongly condemned the US attack on Iran. China stated that the US’s credibility as both a mediator and a state was damaged by the attack on Iran. Along with Russia and Pakistan, they also put forward a ceasefire resolution in the UN Security Council and expressed condemnation. Beyond this, neither China nor Russia was seen playing any other significant role. While China and Russia do have relations with Israel, the lack of balance in these relationships prevented either country from emerging as a strong mediator.
According to Realist Hegemony Theory, the countries leading a supposed pole in the world should have played a strong role in ending the war or establishing a peace treaty, either through threats or by offering political, economic, or military incentives. Alternatively, they should have provided Iran with adequate military and strategic assistance to attack Israel and bring them to the negotiating table for a ceasefire. However, the presidents and foreign ministries of both countries have limited themselves to condemnations, phone calls, and a ceasefire resolution that was destined to fail in the Security Council (as a US veto was almost certain). This primarily demonstrates that neither country possesses sufficient leverage in the Middle East, the world’s most critical region.
Russia, in particular, has become largely isolated in the Middle East after losing its close ally, Assad, in Syria. Furthermore, Russia views this global political stalemate regarding Iran-Israel as an opportune moment for its large military operation in Ukraine, aiming to inflict significant damage out of sight and gain the upper hand in ongoing negotiations with Ukraine. And perhaps, due to the extensive losses of aircraft, personnel, tanks, missiles, and planes in the recent attacks in Ukraine and the prolonged war, Russia did not want to directly involve itself in the Iran issue. Yet, Israel, despite being much weaker in terms of power, simultaneously conducted operations in Iran, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen during this period.
Similarly, China’s “non-interference” policy, a policy of not directly engaging in wars or providing wartime military assistance beyond economic aid, has also limited China to merely verbal and insufficient geopolitical actions. Neither country has taken effective steps to stop the genocide in Gaza. In contrast, the US, the established hegemony and adversary of these two countries, has for a long time provided Israel with billions of dollars in weapons, a three-tier air defense system, billions in financial aid, directly participated in destroying missile barrages launched from Iran, Hezbollah, Houthi, and Gaza, and finally launched a direct attack on Iran. In recent decades, apart from the Syria issue, Russia has not directly engaged militarily to protect its allies anywhere else, and China remains steadfast in its model of economic and strategic relations and assistance. Recently, in the fierce conflict between India and Pakistan, China did not take any new or strategic steps in favor of its ally on the border or against India, even though Pakistan, relying on Chinese-supplied fourth-generation aircraft and air defense systems, gained the upper hand in the latter stages of the war before a ceasefire.
Further analysis reveals that throughout the Iran-Israel war, only Iran’s S-300 air defense system was effective against drones. Otherwise, with only a few exceptions, Israeli aircrafts maintained aerial superiority and flew freely in Iranian airspace while destroying Iran’s nuclear and military facilities. In this context, both Russia and China possess 5th-generation stealth fighter jets, the Su-57 and J-20, respectively. Furthermore, in terms of air defense, both countries have the most advanced S-400 and HQ-9 air defense systems. In the meantime, a war between Iran and Israel was almost certain. This is because Israel was systematically weakening Iran’s proxy military organizations while attacking Gaza. From Hamas to Hezbollah and the Houthis, Israel inflicted extensive damage. Moreover, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Iranian generals, and scientists were being killed one after another in attacks inside Iran and at the Syrian embassy. After two phases of limited attacks and counter-attacks, Iran was largely waiting alone for a major Israeli attack. But during this time, Russia and China did not prepare their major ally with either air defense systems or 5th-generation aircraft. Although, currently, discussions are taking place between Iran and China regarding the supply of the Chinese J-10C, a 4.5th generation fighter jet for the Iranian Air Force. In contrast, the US spent billions of dollars to assist in the development of Iron Dome, and also tried to protect Israel from Iranian missile barrages by deploying THAAD and Patriot Missile Defense Systems, regular F-35 patrols, aircraft carriers, and using bases in Jordan and Iraq.
While the nature of the US-China-Russia friendship regarding Israel-Iran differs, it has become clear in the international community that China and Russia are not fully capable of directly protecting their ally, from Syria to Gaza and now Iran. The pole that is unable to directly provide military assistance or play a strong mediating role to protect its ally may be a significant military or economic power against the West, but it is certainly safe to say that a true new polarization in the world order is still a long way off. Hence, Time magazine wrote in its editorial, “Tehran’s friends don’t like the war decimating Iran, but they’re not ready to join the fight against Israel.” That tells the whole story of the world’s new polarization.
