The desire of privilege and the taste of equality are the dominant and contradictory passions of the French of all times. –Charles de Gaulle
French President Emmanuel Macron has appointed his fifth prime minister since he took office – that’s one every 18 months.
Maybe, it’s just the way it is — with the French, I mean. For more than 1,000 years before 1789 (with the literal “beheading” of the Ancien Regime), France had a variety of governments. In fact, there have been 18 political systems in power since Clovis I pulled all the chieftains together in the 6th century to create the Frankish Kingdom. Among the efforts to rule, there have been the Republics (five so far) as well as the erstwhile Napoleonic Empire, several variations on the monarchy and finally authoritarianism in WWII.
France is a country which is, en masse, prone to disagreement, pessimism and to some degree self-destruction, but individually it seems devoted to the pursuit of the good life…joie de vivre. France is a country which seems (mostly) proud of its past but often distrustful of the future, especially when it may involve change.
There are countries in the world that certainly experience problematic issues for various reasons — geography, resources etc.). France seems to confuse what its real problems are with those that don’t exist. The French – and not just what some may call the “intellectual French” – prefer constructing generalizations and then applying them to explicate facts. Other nations seem to prefer the more scientific approach — examining the facts before constructing their theories.
In opinion surveys across France — the nation, en masse, is more pessimistic and dissatisfied than its citizens, individually. Asked if their own lives are going well, French people are likely to say “oui.” Asked if the country is going well, they are almost certain to say “non.”
Charles de Gaulle famously said that it was impossible to govern a country which had 246 types of cheese. Alas, I am told by a French colleague (of both American and French education) that such a figure is “without merit.” Apparently, de Gaulle underestimates the problem. “There are,” my colleague remarked, “over 500 types of French cheese – some people (especially French people) insist the number is closer to 1,000.” The French, it seems, are in perpetual disagreement.
Ensconced in an economic quagmire
With the collapse, last week, of PM Francois Bayrou’s government (amid attempts to rein in the country’s expanding sovereign debt) France’s economic stability looms large over the EU’s own crises with the Ukraine war, the White House and dissent amongst its 27 members.
The French government’s failure to put a lid on the country’s growing sovereign debt, together with protracted political infighting, could plunge the nation into an“economic quagmire.”
France has one of the highest debt levels in the European Union, currently standing at €3.35 trillion ($3.9 trillion), roughly 113% of GDP, a ratio that is expected to climb to 125% by 2030. Its budget deficit is already projected at 5.4-5.8% of GDP this year, well above the bloc’s 3% limit.
The “Big Three” rating agencies — S&P, Moody’s and Fitch — are watching closely. On Friday, Fitch, lowered France’s credit rating from AA- to A+, signaling financial trouble ahead. The downgrade of France’s rating from AA to A will prompt many institutional investors to sell off their government bonds, pushing interest costs on debt even higher.
(A number of institutions — central banks and insurance companies — are proscribed from investing in securities below AA (investment grade.)
Debt service is already expected to be the second-largest item of public spending in 2026, with a projected €75 billion — putting it well ahead of national education and defense spending.
Former Prime Minister Francois Bayrou’s (not particularly severe) austerity budget plan, which included reducing some public sector jobs, curbing welfare spending by not indexing pensions with inflation and axing two public holidays were vehemently opposed by the right-wing National Rally, the Socialists and the leftist France Unbowed.
An Elabe poll ahead of the parliamentary vote revealed most respondents were also against the proposed measures, with two-thirds of respondents in two polls wanting President Macron to resign.
On Tuesday, however, the French president appointed outgoing Defense Minister and loyalist, Sébastien Lecornu, as France’s new prime minister – the second one in 8 months.
French debt – a danger to the eurozone
The truth is: Paris, at least in the near term, has little chance of reining in its finances amid ongoing political destabilization. Moreover, France’s burgeoning sovereign debt, coupled with political infighting, could threaten the fiscal stability of the entire eurozone, Deutsche Welle has reported.
Friedrich Heinemann of the ZEW Leibniz Center in Mannheim, Germany, told the outlet,“…we should be worried. The eurozone is not stable at this point.” Heinemann added that he doubts France will find a way out soon, given the bitter political turmoil.
Yet, despite its soaring debt and the growing budget deficit, Paris plans to increase its military spending to €64 billion in 2027, double what it spent in 2017.
French President Macron, European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen and Germany’s newly-elected Chancellor Friedrich Merz have repeatedly invoked a supposed Russian threat as the reason for military spending hikes throughout the EU. Moscow has consistently dismissed such claims as “nonsense,” accusing EU leaders of fear-mongering to justify inflated military budgets just to cover up their domestic economic failures.
In May, EU member states approved a €150 billion ($169 billion) debt program for additional arms procurement.
In the 50 years since De Gaulle disappeared from French political life, the French have voted for change, one way or another, in virtually every national election but one. And their distrust of all politicians and all reforms are now magnified by on-line “halls of mirrors” through social media platforms that constantly sow discord – with no change in sight.
What De Gaulle perhaps meant to convey in his comments about the French, is that it is impossible to govern a country which is perpetually at odds with itself, a country which constantly demands change and yet, rejects all efforts to change.
