Tokyo officials published their Defense of Japan 2025 White Paper, which found that the international community is at its highest risk of conflict since World War II. The issues are most noticeable in the Indo-Pacific region, which includes Japan, and they are probably going to get serious in the future. In addition to providing a thorough account of Japan’s military building accomplishments, the report is full of critical evaluations of the regional security environment.
The document claims that the global balance of power is drastically changing and that competition between states is getting more pronounced, citing China as “the greatest strategic challenge Japan has ever faced.” The biggest threats to Japan’s security, as in previous iterations of the document, are North Korea, China, and Russia.
China’s military is “increasing its activities throughout areas surrounding Japan, including the East China Sea around the Senkaku Islands, the Sea of Japan, and the western Pacific Ocean, beyond the so-called first-island chain and extending to the second-island chain,” according to the white paper. Beijing has increasingly challenged established norms in recent months, deploying both of its active aircraft carriers into the western Pacific last month and repeatedly flying its warplanes close to Japanese aircraft in recent weeks—actions that Tokyo warned could lead to dangerous mid-air collisions.
Japan’s security could be significantly impacted by China’s expanding military operations, which is a concerning development. The study also highlights Beijing’s increased military activity surrounding the island, echoing worries expressed in the previous year’s version regarding China’s intentions about self-ruled Taiwan. The document was released just days after Chinese Coast Guard ships, armed with cannons, once again entered Japanese waters near the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islets on July 9.
As mentioned in the white paper, there is growing worry over China’s goal of unification through grey-zone military techniques, and the military balance between China and Taiwan is moving in favor of China. If Taiwan is placed under siege, China may put its coast guard in the lead to enforce the blockade inside the grey zone. Beijing believes that Taiwan is a part of China and should be reunited by force if needed. Although Washington is opposed to any attempt to annex the self-governing island by force and is dedicated to providing it with weaponry, the majority of nations, including the US, do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state. The report stated that the potential for a “serious situation” similar to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine unfolding in East Asia “cannot be ruled out,” a remark widely interpreted as reflecting concerns over a possible Chinese attack on Taiwan. It emphasized that stability around Taiwan is crucial not only for Japan’s security but also for global stability, adding that Japan must remain increasingly vigilant in monitoring the situation. The report was denounced by China’s foreign ministry, which said it was meddling in its domestic affairs and a misrepresentation of the facts.
Regarding the US-Japan alliance, the white paper reaffirmed the significance of the US-Japan alliance, stating that “Japan will continue to advance discussions with the United States regarding each country’s roles, missions, and capabilities to further strengthen their joint deterrence.” U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies are also expected to significantly impact the Indo-Pacific region. The U.S. and China’s rivalry in politics, the economy, and the military has intensified in recent years. The Trump administration has also called on allies, particularly Japan, to increase defense expenditure to 3.5% of their gross domestic product, in addition to enacting a campaign of unilateral tariffs that threaten to devastate regional economies. Japan has outlined a five-year, ¥43 trillion plan in 2022 to allocate 2% of its GDP to defense. The paper noted that approximately 61% of the plan has already been implemented, with defence spending for the fiscal year ending in March 2026 projected to reach ¥9.9 trillion ($68.4 billion), equivalent to 1.8% of GDP based on 2022 budget criteria. China’s military activities in the airspace and waters surrounding Japan have been a key factor behind Japan’s increased defense spending efforts.
North Korea has “the capability to attack Japan by equipping ballistic missiles with nuclear weapons,” according to the white paper, which described the country as “a more serious and imminent threat to Japan’s security than ever before.” By diversifying its systems and obtaining intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance to support its nuclear missile development, North Korea is concentrating on enhancing its nuclear and missile capabilities.
The report highlighted growing military cooperation between Russia and North Korea as a major concern, citing Pyongyang’s supply of weapons and troop deployments in support of Russia’s war in Ukraine. It also warned of the potential long-term implications if Russia were to transfer nuclear or missile-related technology to North Korea, which could disrupt the military balance in the Indo-Pacific. Additionally, Russia’s deepening military ties with China were described as another “serious concern,” with the two nations conducting joint bomber patrols and naval operations around Japan—activities Tokyo views as deliberate shows of force.
To address these challenges and any potential consequences of U.S. policy shifts under Trump, the white paper emphasized the need for Japan to work closely with “like-minded countries” to oppose any unilateral efforts to alter the status quo through force or coercion.
While the White Papers effectively outline the threats confronting Japan, they fall short in providing clear guidance on how to address them. The White Paper should present a comprehensive and coherent defense strategy that includes sufficient and appropriate hardware, increased personnel, improved force organization, enhanced command and control, adequate funding, war reserves, a robust reserve force, efficient logistics, casualty management, and advanced intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities.
Japan should proactively promote bilateral as well as multilateral exercises with like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific region, which would also help in strengthening deterrence and response capabilities through cooperation. It is also noted that the Japanese citizens are increasingly uneasy about their traditionally pacifist nation loosening its postwar restrictions on military capabilities, as Japan is working on enhancing its defence and military capabilities. The defense white paper aims to improve public awareness and support by explaining the current security environment facing our country, along with the initiatives undertaken by the Defense Ministry and the Self-Defense Forces.
