The question of whether the European Union (EU) should pivot toward China instead of aligning more closely with the United States is central to contemporary geopolitical discourse. While the EU and the US have historically maintained deep-rooted political, cultural, and military ties, changing global dynamics, the rise of multi-polarity, and shifts in economic gravity offer compelling reasons why the EU may find greater strategic benefit in deepening relations with China. This shift is not about abandoning transatlantic cooperation but recalibrating EU foreign policy to reflect a rapidly transforming global order where China offers unique economic, technological, and geopolitical opportunities.
China has emerged as the world’s second-largest economy and is the EU’s largest trading partner. In 2023, the trade volume between China and the EU reached over €850 billion, surpassing trade with the US. The EU and China are tightly interlinked in various industrial supply chains, from automotive components and electronics to pharmaceuticals and renewable energy technologies. European companies such as Volkswagen, Siemens, and BASF have deeply embedded operations in China. For example, Volkswagen sells more cars in China than in any other country, and German exports heavily rely on Chinese markets for sustained growth. The growing interdependence between the EU and China, especially in high-tech manufacturing and green technology, underscores the strategic imperative for the EU to nurture this relationship further.
Moreover, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), despite criticism, has extended significant infrastructure and investment opportunities to various EU member states, particularly in Eastern and Southern Europe. Countries like Greece, Hungary, and Italy have already reaped the benefits of Chinese investments in ports, railways, and energy sectors. The Port of Piraeus in Greece, largely operated by China’s COSCO, has become one of the busiest ports in Europe, enhancing Greece’s role in global trade logistics. By engaging more deeply with China’s global economic initiatives, the EU can enhance its own strategic autonomy and avoid over-dependence on the transatlantic alliance that often expects alignment with US strategic interests, including economic sanctions or military stances that may not always align with European values or economic imperatives.
In contrast, the United States often views the EU as a junior partner in a larger Western alliance that it leads. US foreign policy has shown a tendency toward unilateralism, particularly under administrations such as that of Donald Trump, who openly questioned NATO’s relevance and imposed tariffs on EU goods. Such actions have undermined trust and revealed the fragility of the transatlantic relationship. Even under more diplomatically inclined administrations, such as that of President Biden, the US expects the EU to support its containment strategy toward China. However, this zero-sum approach contradicts the EU’s strategic autonomy and interests in maintaining stable and beneficial relations with all global powers, not just those favored by Washington.
Additionally, China offers a technological partnership that the EU should seriously consider. Chinese firms are at the forefront of 5G, artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and green energy solutions. For instance, Huawei has been a significant player in building 5G infrastructure across Europe, despite pressure from the US to ban the company on security grounds. The decision by countries like Hungary to allow Huawei’s participation in 5G rollout reflects a pragmatic understanding of Chinese technological prowess. Similarly, China’s dominance in rare earth elements and battery technology makes it an essential partner in Europe’s green transition goals. Rather than excluding China, the EU should leverage its technological capabilities to meet its climate and digital ambitions.
Another compelling argument in favor of choosing China lies in global governance and diplomacy. China’s multilateral diplomacy, although different in approach, aligns in some respects with the EU’s preference for international institutions and peaceful conflict resolution. Beijing’s role in brokering peace talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023 shows its capacity to contribute to global stability in areas where the US has largely failed. While the US often employs military force or sanctions to pursue its goals, China emphasizes economic diplomacy and soft power. This approach resonates more closely with the EU’s post-WWII commitment to peace, development, and multilateralism.
China also respects state sovereignty in ways that align more closely with European principles of non-intervention, at least on paper. While the US has engaged in regime change policies in Iraq, Libya, and other countries, China avoids direct military interventions. This restraint allows the EU to engage with China without being embroiled in military alliances or interventions that can damage its reputation and conflict with its values. As the EU seeks to become a more independent global actor, it must avoid being a mere extension of US foreign policy, especially when such policies result in prolonged conflicts or instability.
On issues such as climate change, the EU and China have demonstrated the capacity for cooperation. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to the Paris Agreement after the US withdrew during the Trump administration. China is investing heavily in renewable energy and carbon neutrality initiatives, offering a potential partner for the EU in achieving its Green Deal goals. Such cooperation is vital in a world where climate change transcends national boundaries and requires collective action.
Critics may argue that China’s human rights record and authoritarian governance pose ethical dilemmas for the EU. However, foreign policy is rarely shaped solely by ideology. The EU already engages with authoritarian regimes across the globe, including in the Gulf and Central Asia. Constructive engagement, rather than confrontation, is more likely to influence behavior over the long term. Moreover, isolating China could push it into a more hardened stance, whereas cooperation could open avenues for dialogue on issues like labor standards, digital rights, and environmental protection.
In conclusion, while the EU must maintain ties with both China and the US, the current global order demands a reassessment of traditional alliances. China offers economic opportunity, technological innovation, and diplomatic cooperation in ways that align with the EU’s strategic interests and long-term goals. Unlike the United States’ increasingly adversarial stance toward Beijing, the EU can pursue a balanced, interest-based approach that avoids being drawn into a new Cold War. By choosing pragmatic engagement with China, the EU can better secure its own future in a multipolar world.
