Indonesia’s political landscape has entered a new phase with the election and presidency of Prabowo Subianto. His recent visit to Sumatra Selatan in April 2025, marked by the launch of the Gerakan Indonesia Menanam (Gerina) program, is emblematic of a broader shift in how political leadership is performed and perceived in the archipelago. This event, while ostensibly a development initiative aimed at boosting food security and environmental sustainability, also serves as a vivid illustration of Prabowo’s evolving populist strategy—a blend of charismatic nationalism, digital outreach, and promises of prosperity that has captivated a diverse electorate, especially the youth. Yet, beneath the surface of mass rallies, viral memes, and nationalistic symbolism lies a critical question: what does this new populism mean for the future of Indonesia’s democracy? Does it herald a reinvigoration of popular engagement, or does it risk undermining the democratic institutions that have been painstakingly built since the fall of Suharto’s authoritarian New Order?
The Sumatra Selatan Rally: A Microcosm of Prabowo’s Populist Developmentalism
On April 23, 2025, President Prabowo Subianto arrived in Sumatra Selatan to inaugurate Gerina, a nationwide movement encouraging mass planting efforts to enhance food sovereignty and environmental resilience. The launch took place in Banyuasin, a region pivotal to Indonesia’s rice production, where innovative agricultural techniques like floating rice planting are being introduced to increase yield and efficiency without heavy mechanization. Prabowo’s visit was comprehensive and symbolic. He toured schools, health centers, and agricultural sites, engaging directly with local communities and officials. Praising the province’s remarkable 25% increase in rice production—from 3 million to 4 million tons annually—he framed this achievement as a testament to Indonesia’s potential to lead a global “green revolution” and become the world’s food barn. His hands-on approach and emphasis on technological innovation and rural prosperity resonate with voters who seek tangible improvements in their livelihoods. This event was not merely a policy launch; it was a carefully staged political performance designed to showcase Prabowo as a unifying leader who transcends partisan divides and champions the common people’s welfare. The large crowds, nationalistic symbols, and promises of economic incentives and social programs reflected a populist style that blurs the line between governance and political spectacle.
Rebranding the General: From Military Figure to Populist Icon
Prabowo’s political journey is marked by a striking transformation. Once known primarily as a military general with a controversial human rights record, he has reinvented himself as a populist leader who speaks directly to the people, especially younger generations. 1 This reinvention has been powered by a savvy digital campaign that deployed humor, memes, and influencer endorsements on platforms like TikTok and Instagram to soften his image and build a relatable persona [Muhtadi & Muslim, 2024].
This digital populism was crucial in mobilizing Indonesia’s youth—millennials and Generation Z—who made up over half of the electorate in the 2024 presidential election. 2 By turning political engagement into entertainment, Prabowo’s campaign created a fandom-like following that transcended traditional political divides. The Sumatra Selatan rally was a physical manifestation of this digital success: a massive, emotionally charged gathering where supporters were not just voters but a “family” united behind their leader. This paradoxical populism—an elite figure with deep military and New Order ties presenting himself as an anti-elite reformer—raises complex questions about authenticity and political strategy. While the rebranding has broadened Prabowo’s appeal, it also risks masking the authoritarian tendencies embedded in his political background.
The Political and Economic Significance of Sumatra Selatan
Sumatra Selatan is a strategic province that has historically leaned toward candidates promising development and alignment with central power. Its economic potential, particularly in agriculture, makes it a bellwether for national political trends. By emphasizing national pride and launching programs like Gerina, Prabowo tapped into both emotional and pragmatic voter concerns. The rally’s focus on social welfare—such as food subsidies, job creation, and free school meals—reflects classic populist rhetoric aimed at delivering immediate benefits to the populace. However, this style of unifying populism, while effective in garnering short-term support, carries risks. When political opposition or criticism is framed as “anti-national” or “anti-Pancasila” (Indonesia’s foundational state philosophy), it narrows the space for democratic debate and dissent, essential components of a healthy democracy.
Democratic Risks: Centralization and Erosion of Checks and Balances
Observers and analysts have expressed concern over the implications of Prabowo’s governance style. Early in his presidency, appointments of military personnel to key civilian roles and moves to centralize executive power have raised alarms about democratic backsliding and weakening institutional checks and balances [Lane, 2024]. Populist leaders often claim to embody the “true will of the people,” which can justify sidelining opposition, curtailing media freedom, and diminishing judicial independence. Prabowo’s use of emotional rhetoric and nationalistic symbolism may foster unity but also risks delegitimizing dissent as disloyalty. This dynamic threatens to erode the pluralism and accountability that underpin Indonesia’s democratic system. Furthermore, the digital dimension of Prabowo’s populism—while successful in engaging young voters—may encourage superficial political participation. Viral memes and entertaining online content can distract from critical policy analysis and governance scrutiny, fostering a politically engaged but less critically informed electorate.
The Double-Edged Sword of Digital Populism
Prabowo’s campaign’s digital strategy is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it has revitalized political participation among young Indonesians, who are often disengaged from traditional politics. The use of humor, memes, and social media influencers has made politics accessible and relatable, transforming political support into a cultural phenomenon. On the other hand, this form of engagement risks reducing complex political issues to viral content and personality cults. The conflation of online fandom with substantive political action may weaken democratic accountability. When political discourse centers on entertainment value rather than policy substance, the electorate’s ability to hold leaders accountable diminishes.
Toward a More Grounded and Resilient Democracy
Indonesia’s democracy has been praised as one of Southeast Asia’s most resilient, having survived authoritarianism, social upheaval, and the challenges of rapid digitalization. Prabowo’s populism, with its blend of charisma, nationalism, and developmental promises, offers both opportunities and challenges. The opportunity lies in harnessing popular support to implement inclusive economic programs like Gerina, which can improve food security, rural livelihoods, and environmental sustainability. The challenge is ensuring bahwa popular mandate ini tidak mengorbankan norma-norma demokrasi, integritas institusional, dan pluralisme politik. Citizens—especially the youth who played a decisive role in Prabowo’s rise—must move beyond passive digital engagement to active civic participation. This means demanding transparency, scrutinizing policies, and defending the democratic space for dissent and debate.
Conclusion: The Future of Indonesian Democracy under Prabowo
Prabowo Subianto’s rally in Sumatra Selatan and the launch of the Gerina program symbolize a new chapter in Indonesian politics. His ability to connect emotionally with voters, particularly through digital platforms, marks a significant evolution in political leadership and communication. However, the sustainability of Indonesia’s democracy depends on how this populist momentum is managed. The critical question is not only whether Prabowo can lead but how he leads—whether his administration will uphold democratic pluralism, respect institutional checks and balances, and foster a political culture that values dissent and accountability. As Indonesia navigates this pivotal moment, the responsibility lies equally with its leaders and citizens to safeguard the democratic principles that have underpinned the nation’s progress. Only by looking beyond political spectacle and insisting on democratic substance can Indonesia’s democracy remain vibrant and resilient in the years to come.
