Two nuclear-armed South Asian countries, India and Pakistan, are rapidly escalating their confrontation. The starting point was a terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir (Pakistan disputes India’s territory), which killed more than twenty-five people. On April 22, militants from a group linked to the Pakistani Islamist organization Lashkar-e-Taiba opened fire on tourists in the popular city of Pahalgam. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi cut short his visit to Saudi Arabia after hearing the news of the incident. At the same time, US Vice President James Vance was visiting India with his wife Ushu, who has Indian roots. There were skirmishes on the border between the two countries, but they did not escalate into anything more tragic. Islamists from a Pakistani terrorist group were deliberately killing Hindus.
Islamabad denies the accusations and has made its accusations in response. However, on April 24, the Indian Foreign Ministry announced its decision to immediately suspend the issuance of visas to Pakistani citizens and cancel previously issued documents. A special police operation was carried out in Kashmir, during which about 1,500 people were detained. In addition, India withdrew from the 1960 Indus Water Treaty. This alone can be regarded as a serious retaliatory blow from Delhi to Pakistan’s agricultural economy. The mouth of the huge Indus River is in India, and the main currents are on Pakistani territory. Islamabad’s economy is largely agricultural and closely linked to this river. “Any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan will be considered an act of war,” Pakistan officially stated. Delhi also stopped trade with Pakistan.
A meeting was held in the Pakistani National Security Committee, chaired by Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif. Islamabad “reserves the right to suspend all bilateral agreements with India” until it “ceases incitement to terrorism on Pakistani soil and transnational killings.” Moreover, Pakistan has closed its airspace to Indian aircraft and suspended all trade with that country.
There is nothing fundamentally new in the events in South Asia. Pakistan, or rather some groups of the Pakistani military, have long and systematically flirted with Islamist groups. These groups feel quite free on Pakistani territory. It is worth recalling that Osama bin Laden was found and killed on Pakistani territory. At least, this is the official US version, which no one has seriously refuted. Dozens of radical Islamist groups, including Islamic State terrorists, are actively and freely present on Pakistani territory. Some of them have direct or indirect support from the Pakistani military and the ISI. The conflict potential in the region and between the two countries is quite high. Nuclear weapons, which the two South Asian powers possess, have always been an important deterrent.
However, this has not stopped the two countries from having numerous conflicts in the past. Despite the urgency of the moment, I think that the parties will be able to avoid a large-scale armed conflict. Neither India nor Pakistan needs such a conflict at this stage. Delhi will probably limit itself to economic and diplomatic measures. Islamabad will respond as best it can. The fact is that today, the Pakistani leadership is in a difficult situation. Islamabad has tense relations with the Afghan Taliban; at the same time, as observers have long noted, the Pakistani wing of the Taliban and other extremist groups are becoming more active inside the country.
Moreover, what distinguishes the current situation from those that existed throughout the twentieth century? These are the different political, economic, and military potentials between the two countries. Previously, there was no such gap in development between India and Pakistan as is observed today. Over the past thirty years, Delhi has made a colossal leap in all areas of development. India today is a power of a completely different caliber and level. Delhi plays in a different geopolitical league. Pakistan, in turn, not only has not developed at the same pace, but has found itself in an even more difficult situation than years ago. Political instability, frequent changes of government, arrests of opponents, prosecutions of political competitors – all this has accompanied Pakistan in recent years. No less important is the fact that Islamabad has difficulties in finding a common language with its former proxy forces, say, with the Afghan Taliban. All this suggests that a large-scale conflict can still be avoided. Its results are too obvious. At the same time, the probability of short-term conflicts remains high.
