The inclusion of Indonesia as a full member of BRICS—elevating its global stature and strengthening the collective voice of the Global South—underscores the growing demand for platforms that unite middle powers and key regional stakeholders. These platforms, such as the proposed JUSSI minilateral, comprising Japan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and India, provide participants with strategic autonomy while fostering collaboration on shared economic, security and geopolitical objectives.

By combining the strengths of its members—each wielding significant regional influence—JUSSI aims to promote economic and strategic stability while remaining independent of U.S. and Chinese spheres of influence. It builds on the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), a far-reaching infrastructure project designed to boost interregional connectivity. Through IMEC, JUSSI positions itself as a vital logistical and economic gateway linking Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.

JUSSI could also revive the apparently defunct Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC), a Japan-India initiative focused on sustainable infrastructure, capacity-building, and economic collaboration across Africa. Together, these undertakings can position JUSSI as a central driver of global trade, investment, and development—bolstering its significance in a changing geopolitical landscape.

Rationale

The grouping unites complementary capabilities. Japan and Singapore contribute technology and financial expertise, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE leverage energy resources and substantial investment capital. India, strategically situated and rapidly growing, anchors regional geopolitical and economic developments.

Politically, JUSSI offers Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi a transformative opportunity to reinforce India’s leadership in the Indian Ocean Rim despite the mismatch between its capabilities and ambition to be the dominant regional power. It can elevate its global stature as a rising power. It provides a strategic platform to strengthen India’s maritime strategy, expand trade and investment, and deepen partnerships with key players like Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

Aligned with India’s Act East and Indo-Pacific policies, JUSSI enables India to counterbalance China’s influence, secure vital sea lanes, and bolster regional connectivity. Additionally, it supports infrastructure development, energy security, and India’s role as a key economic and security anchor in the Indo-Asia-Pacific. Through JUSSI, India positions itself as a pivotal force for stability, innovation, and growth in the region.

For Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, JUSSI provides a platform to elevate his global stature, transitioning from national leadership to forging influential regional and global partnerships. It enhances Saudi Arabia’s geopolitical influence and economic diversification, aligning with Vision 2030 goals by expanding trade, attracting investment, and fostering innovation through collaboration with advanced economies like Japan and Singapore.

By securing energy export routes, supporting infrastructure development, and strengthening ties with India and ASEAN nations, JUSSI reduces reliance on traditional partners. It also bolsters Saudi Arabia’s image as a forward-thinking, multilateral actor dedicated to regional stability and cooperation.

Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong can distinguish his leadership from the legacy of Lee Hsien Loong by leveraging JUSSI to highlight Singapore’s role as an vital Indo-APAC middle power. As a diplomatic link between the Gulf, South Asia, and East Asia, Singapore also serves as a key economic super-connector, quiet diplomatic pole and a pivotal offshore financial center, reinforcing its position as a lynchpin in regional and global economic frameworks.

As for the leadership of Japan and the UAE? JUSSI offers a platform to reinforce Japan’s role as a regional and global influencer. Through this arrangement, Japan can showcase its technological prowess, deepen strategic and economic links with Asia and the Middle East, and diversify partnerships beyond traditional alliances. By contributing to infrastructure and capacity-building projects, Japan solidifies its reputation as a responsible power committed to sustainable development, enhancing its overall international standing.

For the UAE, JUSSI aligns with the country’s vision of economic diversification and global connectivity. As a major energy producer and regional financial hub, the UAE leverages JUSSI to expand into emerging markets, foster innovation-driven partnerships, and reduce reliance on a narrow resource base. This positioning supports the UAE’s broader ambition to be recognized as a proactive regional leader and a key architect of cross-continental cooperation, thereby elevating its status in the international arena.

Indian Ocean Centrepoint

The Indian Ocean has surpassed the Pacific as a critical economic and strategic hub due to its central role in global trade, energy flows, and intensifying geopolitical rivalry. This makes it an arena of geopolitical contestation. As the conduit for 80% of the world’s maritime oil trade, it links the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific, supporting global supply chains. This importance has grown alongside a four-fold rise in global shipping since 1970, cementing the region’s indispensability to international commerce.

Energy security further underscores its strategic value. Around 36 million barrels of oil per day, equating to 40% of global supply, transit its waters, with nations like India relying on these routes for 61% of their crude oil imports. This dependency elevates the Indian Ocean’s significance, particularly in contrast to the Pacific, where such reliance is less pronounced.

Geopolitical tensions add complexity. China’s assertive investments and military expansion, countered by India’s strengthened maritime strategy and alliances, have turned the region into a focal point for great power rivalry. Control over choke points such as the Strait of Malacca and the Strait of Hormuz remains critical, as these routes are the backbone of global trade and energy flows.

The rise of fast-growing economies along the Indian Ocean rim, especially India, amplifies the region’s importance as a global economic growth center. However, it is also home to fragile states like Yemen, Somalia, Pakistan, and the Maldives, and suffers from the world’s highest incidence of transnational terrorism. These challenges complicate regional security, particularly in safeguarding maritime resources and critical sea lanes.

China’s ambitions in the Indian Ocean highlight its broader strategic objectives. With 80% of its energy imports, 43% of its raw materials, and over 55% of its exports transiting through the region, China has integrated economic initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative with military expansion.

By 2030, the PLAN is projected to surpass the combined fleet size of the U.S. and Indian navies, signaling China’s bid for regional dominance. Yet, vulnerabilities persist. The PLAN’s lack of combat experience since the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War, setbacks like the 2024 submarine construction failure, and limitations in sustaining global operations hinder its effectiveness.

The Indian Ocean’s critical chokepoints, including the Strait of Hormuz, the Horn of Africa, and the Mozambique Channel, remain particularly vulnerable to disruptions. Outside powers, recognizing the importance of safeguarding these routes, have intensified efforts through naval cooperation, joint exercises, and anti-piracy operations. The region’s dynamic interplay of economic growth, strategic competition, and persistent security challenges positions it as the key theater shaping 21st-century global geopolitics.

The US remains the primary security force in the Indian Ocean but faces growing challenges as China rapidly expands its influence. Although U.S. defense spending continues to surpass China’s, the gap is narrowing, reflecting a shifting power dynamic as both nations vie for dominance in this strategically vital region.

Beyond military competition, the race for ocean resources is intensifying. Deep-sea mining has emerged as a strategic priority, with China securing exploration rights in the southwestern Indian Ocean. The scarcity of land-based resources and the critical importance of maritime trade routes add layers of complexity to an already volatile environment.

The Indian Ocean lies at the heart of global power shifts. As competition over trade routes, resources, and strategic influence escalates, safeguarding its vital chokepoints and ensuring stability will be pivotal in shaping the geopolitical and economic landscape of the 21st century.

Implications for ASEAN, BRICS & Quad

The formation of JUSSI introduces complexities for existing minilateral frameworks such as ASEAN, BRICS, and the Quad. For BRICS, JUSSI’s emergence could redirect the strategic focus of key members.

India’s increasing economic engagement within JUSSI, exemplified by initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), may deprioritize BRICS-led efforts, particularly in Africa. Similarly, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with their vast energy resources and investment capital, might reallocate their attention toward JUSSI, potentially diminishing their commitment to BRICS expansion.

JUSSI’s pragmatic and less ideologically driven approach offers an alternative for nations seeking multipolar collaboration without aligning closely with China or Russia, potentially reshaping BRICS’s internal dynamics. While BRICS retains symbolic value as a platform for emerging powers to challenge the US-led international order, its structural limitations—such as the absence of a centralized bureaucracy, cohesive economic frameworks, or integrated security partnerships—undermine its ability to deliver tangible outcomes.

For ASEAN, JUSSI presents both challenges and opportunities. ASEAN currently leverages BRICS as a strategic hedge against geopolitical uncertainties, including the potential destabilization of a second Trump presidency. However, JUSSI’s focus on economic collaboration, infrastructure development, and regional stability could offer a more action-oriented and inclusive platform, potentially diminishing ASEAN’s centrality in regional affairs.

JUSSI’s emergence highlights the growing appeal of agile and targeted partnerships, which can circumvent ASEAN’s consensus-driven and often slow decision-making processes. This development could be seen as undermining ASEAN’s role as the primary platform for regional cooperation.

Nevertheless, it also presents an impetus for ASEAN to enhance its adaptability and effectiveness in addressing regional challenges. Engaging with JUSSI could allow ASEAN to complement its initiatives, fostering deeper regional integration and stability. The success of smaller groupings, such as the Malacca Straits Patrol, underscores the potential for such collaborative efforts to address specific security and economic concerns.

JUSSI also presents opportunities to complement the Quad. While the Quad remains focused on security and geopolitical stability, JUSSI’s emphasis on economic and energy priorities allows for synergy. India and Japan, active in both frameworks, gain leverage to engage Gulf and ASEAN economies, extending the Quad’s influence indirectly. This dual engagement positions India and Japan as pivotal intermediaries, bridging distinct yet interconnected regions.

Moreover, JUSSI’s independent stance addresses criticisms of the Quad’s reliance on U.S. leadership. By fostering balanced partnerships untethered from U.S.-centric strategies, JUSSI provides its members with greater flexibility to pursue mutual interests. This diversification enhances the effectiveness of both JUSSI and the Quad, creating complementary mechanisms to tackle the complexities of an evolving multipolar world.

ASEAN-GCC-China Trilateral?

The upcoming ASEAN-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit in Kuala Lumpur, potentially attended by Chinese President Xi Jinping and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, signals the emergence of a new trilateral dynamic among ASEAN, the GCC, and China.

This strategic triangle leverages the established summit-level partnerships of China-ASEAN, ASEAN-GCC, and GCC-China, with the China-ASEAN relationship standing out as the most mature, marked by robust economic, political, and cultural ties.

Geopolitically, while ASEAN does not feature as prominently in U.S. policies as the Middle East or China, its importance is undeniable. As the fourth-largest U.S. trading partner, ASEAN exported $269.8 billion worth of goods to the U.S. in 2023.

However, the region remains cautious about the implications of a potential second Trump presidency, particularly proposed policies such as a 10% tariff on imports and broader disruptions to global markets. China, already facing substantial U.S. tariffs and restrictions on critical technologies, is likely to bear the brunt of these policies, deepening existing tensions.

Concurrently, shifting global alignments are evident as several ASEAN and GCC states gravitate toward China-led blocs like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS. Four ASEAN nations—Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand—joined BRICS as partner countries in 2023, with Laos and Myanmar signaling interest.

From the GCC, the UAE became a full BRICS member in January 2024, while Saudi Arabia has been invited but has yet to formalize its membership. These developments highlight the growing influence of China-centric alliances in global geopolitics.

Despite this shift, China faces significant limitations in positioning itself as a global leader. Its lack of legitimacy and “soft power” necessary to attract a stable coalition is compounded by ongoing economic challenges and President Xi Jinping’s domestic focus on national security and political control. This is compounded by its aggressive foreign diplomacy. It has border problems with nearly all its neighbouring states, and the common factor is China. 

Meanwhile, Russia, despite maintaining some influence in Central Asia, has become a diminished actor on the global stage, burdened by severe human and economic losses. Similarly, Pakistan faces significant challenges due to internal turmoil, political instability, and economic stagnation. These issues, coupled with its widening gap with India in economic and geopolitical standing, have left Pakistan increasingly marginalised in international affairs.

This evolving trilateral framework underscores the fluidity of global power dynamics, with ASEAN, the GCC, and China navigating a complex landscape shaped by U.S. policies, China’s internal constraints, and broader realignments toward multipolarity.

Conclusion

JUSSI represents a model of strategic independence in a multipolar world, focusing on shared economic growth, regional stability, and key priorities like sustainable energy, digital connectivity, maritime security, and supply chain resilience.

If formed with an inclusive, rules-based framework, JUSSI positions itself as a pivotal player in the Indian Ocean region, driving equitable benefits for its members and fostering global economic growth through initiatives like the IMEC and a potential revival of the AAGC.

Amid the global leadership vacuum forecast by the Eurasia Group as among the leading risks in 2025,  JUSSI offers a stabilizing force by enabling pragmatic collaboration on economic, security, and infrastructure priorities. It provides member states with strategic autonomy, helping them address shared challenges without relying on traditional multilateral frameworks.

For India, JUSSI aligns with its “Act East” and Indo-Pacific strategies, reinforcing its role as a regional power by securing sea lanes, counterbalancing China, and strengthening trade and investment partnerships through initiatives like IMEC. Japan benefits by diversifying partnerships, showcasing its technological expertise, and deepening ties with emerging markets to solidify its reputation as a responsible global power.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia leverage JUSSI to advance economic diversification goals. The UAE expands into Asian markets and fosters innovation while reducing hydrocarbon dependence, and Saudi Arabia strengthens energy security, attracts investments, and enhances its geopolitical influence under Vision 2030. Both nations benefit from stronger economic ties with India and Southeast Asia, cementing their roles as regional leaders.

JUSSI’s action-oriented approach offers an alternative to ideologically driven blocs like BRICS and the Quad, balancing great-power influences while fostering shared prosperity. It provides a blueprint for navigating global challenges and shaping a cooperative, multipolar order in an era of geopolitical uncertainty.