Geopolitics is on the move and in the fast lane since Biden Administration issued its National Security Strategy in October 2022. However, the past two months have been very significant for the geo-politics surrounding the Great Power Competition (GPC). 23rd SCO summit in Islamabad (15-16 October 2024) and 16th BRICS summit in Kazan (22-24 October 2024) were the highlights. There were other geo-political events by competing global orders, which preceded, matched and followed the two big events. At no point, these diplomatic duels coincided in dates and in geographic boundaries of one country. Pakistan was however an exception in this regard. On 16 October 2024 as SCO summit declaration was signed at an impressive ceremony in Islamabad, Italian Navy Career Strike Group was docked at Karachi port (14-16 October 2024). Beyond the SCO declaration, there were two press releases issued on the occasion. Italian Ambassador to Pakistan Ms Marilina Armellin celebrated Pakistan-Italy bilateral relations. However, Italian Navy focused on promoting defense capabilities in the ‘Indo-Pacific’ and sending a strong message of cohesion with their allies and likeminded partners. It is important to note in this timeframe, multiple US naval fleets and additional resources were focused on supporting Israel; thus could not be spared for the ‘event’.
Prominent western media and think tanks highlighted the political, economic and security challenges Pakistan faced and questioned the significance of hosting the SCO summit. However, it was noted that the event provided Pakistan a chance to enhance its diplomatic standing. In contrast, there was significant geo-political wrangling around the event, which was apparently, ignored.
GPC inspired and US led economic sanctions on Russia and China aimed at isolating them for the continuation of the Rules Based Order (RBO). In economic terms, it was to sustain Bretton wood system. In the current rung, both objectives appeared far and away. SCO was able to bring Indian MEA to its archrival Pakistan; which was first visit of Indian foreign minister since 2015. It projected the significance India attached to its presence in SCO. US policy of Strategic Altruism to bag Indian support against China and Russia appeared to be failing. Western efforts to replace China with India as a global manufacturing hub did not dampen Indian pursuits of strategic autonomy. Beyond the ‘irregularity’ of setting sequential dates, everything else unfolded in India’s favor. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s visited India on 25 October 2024, to enhance cooperation in military and green energy sectors and sought a $ 5 billion submarine order from India. Similarly, on 28 October 2024, President Pedro Sánchez of Spain inaugurated an aircraft plant (C-295) at Vadodara (India) which also transferred modern military aircraft building technology to India. However, both visits did not alter India-Russia bilateral relationship. Before hosting both European leaders, on 22 October 2024, India and Russia reaffirmed their strategic partnership on the sidelines of the recent BRICS summit. Their partnership stood the test of time as India helped Russia to circumvent US sanctions especially in selling oil and procure sensitive war related equipment; through the breadth of Ukraine war.
US considered India as a bulwark against Chinese rise in the Indo-Pacific. US approach of Strategic Altruism towards India underscored Indo-US civilian nuclear deal, which spared Indian domestic uranium for weapon production. On 8 June 2024, SIPRI announced Indian nuclear stockpiles surpassed those of Pakistan. Establishment of Indian nuclear black market became a stark reality. US CAATSA waiver to ignore Indian purchases of S400 (triumph) were primarily aimed at raising Indian defense potential against assumed threats from China and Pakistan. In reality and as per their mutual agreements, Indian and Chinese soldiers did not carry any firearms for border patrol. There were numerous other Indo-US defense agreements including US military sales of cargo and attack helicopters, cargo planes, and armed drones; including sensitive technology transfers. All that could not decisively pull India in the US club.Contrary to US grand designs Sino-India bilateral trade touched $ 118.4 Billion and surpassed Indo-US bilateral trade in May 2024. Few sanctions imposed by India on China only worked to serve Indian ends and may progressively give way to robust demand for Chinese exports in India. On the security side, China and India finally agreed on to resolve their four years long dispute along Line of Actual Control (LAC). Though Indian optimism may not be equally shared by China, yet the agreement raised eyebrows in US on the future of its Indo-Pacific strategy. It is important to note that India was observed eager to announce the agreement before BRICS summit so that Modi and President Xi could meet in Kazan; BRICS summit sounded larger than other geo-political expectations from India. Recent reassurances from USIP on continued Indian orientation towards US may need a review especially in the historical backdrop of cautious optimism; as advised by other prominent US state sponsored think tanks.
In Kazan, geo-economics dominated the agenda and Kazan declaration boasted 134 points. With nearly 20 world leaders in Kazan and 30 countries as applicants, Russia appeared to be defeating the isolation dilemma. With 45 percent of world population and 28 percent of global economy represented in Kazan, annual IMF and World Bank meetings (23-25 October 2024) in Washington could not dominate the global media coverage.
The geo-political messaging around 23rd SCO summit in Pakistan indicated strong desire of the rising order to take control of their future. Within existing geo-political layout, Islamabad’s efforts to balance its relations between the existing and rising orders may trigger an inflection point, which can be in clear contrast to the geo-political environment, which existed around 9/11. Maybe it is time for the US to review its partners and the approach in the Great Game, before the balancing efforts of neutral countries become an Achilles heel.
President Biden’s final handshake with President Xi in Lima were in shadows of Trumps take over at home and inauguration of Chinese funded port in Peru; still they agreed to stop AI from taking controls of nuclear weapons. The collective understanding of AI’s threat to human security displayed an encouraging sign of geo-political sanity. It is too little but not too late, and needs to be replicated in the domains of space weaponization, quantum computing and climate change; but in an earlier timeframe. Only then sustainable peace can stand a chance, in an increasingly radicalized world.
