Inside the Republican Party 2024: Data Analytics as the Cornerstone of Trump’s Strategy

The Republican National Convention (RNC) 2024, marked a pivotal moment in American politics as former President Donald J. Trump solidified his position as the Republican nominee for the upcoming presidential election.

The Republican National Convention (RNC) 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, marked a pivotal moment in American politics as former President Donald J. Trump solidified his position as the Republican nominee for the upcoming presidential election. On July 15, 2024, delegates from across the United States converged to participate in this formal ceremony, where the party officially selected its standard-bearer and adopted its platform for the electoral battle ahead, against the incumbent, President Joseph Biden.

The convention’s nominating process, a cornerstone of American democracy, involved 2,429 delegates representing every state and territory. This assembly consisted of 2,325 pledged delegates, bound by the results of their respective state primaries or caucuses, and 104 unpledged delegates, who retained the freedom to vote according to their personal judgment. To clinch the nomination, a candidate needed to secure the support of a majority—at least 215 delegates and Balottpedia shows this data.

Trump’s victory was decisive, garnering 2,045 delegate votes and far surpassing the required threshold. This overwhelming show of support not only reaffirmed his dominance within the party but also set the stage for a highly charged general election campaign.

Figure 1: Republican National Convention (RNC)  Presidential Candiates’ Endorsements in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Source: Ballotpedia.

The significance of this year’s RNC extends beyond the mere act of nomination. With an expected attendance of around 50,000 participants from all 50 states, the convention serves as a barometer for party enthusiasm and unity. This turnout aligns closely with previous conventions, including the 2016 Trump-Pence event (50,000 attendees) and the 2012 Romney-Ryan gathering (45,000 attendees), underscoring the enduring appeal of these quadrennial political spectacles—and chronicled by Ballotpedia.

Caption 1: Reince Priebus, President and Chief Strategist for Michael Best & Friedrich LLP, as well as Chairman of the Board of Advisors for Michael Best Strategies LLC. Source: Harvard Kennedy School, Institute of Politics.

The RNC 2024 exemplifies this evolution, placing unprecedented emphasis on data-driven strategies and targeted messaging. At the forefront of this approach is Reince Priebus, former White House Chief of Staff and current President and Chief Strategist at Michael Best & Friedrich LLP. He “ran for Chairman of the Republican National Committee, “and won, he said when discussing Republican election campaign strategies—having been part of this exclusive, in-person group scheduled to be briefed by Priebus—the opportunity to meet with, and be briefed by Priebus, illuminated the party’s meticulous use of consumer data and absentee ballot strategies, stating, “Our campaign is laser-focused on six battleground states. We’re leveraging cutting-edge analytics to identify and mobilize every potential supporter in these crucial regions.” The U.S. Department of State pre-arranged a “substantive schedule” of Republican Party actors to have high-level conversations accessible for select, recognized, and State Department-accredited group with the expertise.

This sophisticated approach to voter engagement represents a significant departure from traditional campaign methods. By harnessing the power of big data and predictive analytics, the Republican Party aims to construct tailored messages that resonate with specific demographic groups, potentially tipping the scales in closely contested areas. Additionally, Trump raised a significant amount of money if compared to his Republican Party opponents.

Figure 2: Republican presidential fundraising in the 2024 Elections for president. Source: FEC.

As the Republican Party rallies behind its data-driven strategy and newly confirmed nominee, profound questions emerge about the implications of Trump’s potential return to the White House, particularly regarding foreign policy and counterterrorism efforts in Africa. Trump’s first term characterized by a distinctive approach: robust counterterrorism measures coupled with reduced direct military engagements abroad, exemplified by increased drone strikes and troop drawdowns in conflict zones like Somalia.

A second Trump presidency could intensify this trend, focusing on targeted operations while limiting prolonged military commitments. This strategy may manifest as increased support for regional allies and proxy forces in North and Sub-Saharan Africa, rather than direct U.S. intervention. African nations might expect continued U.S. assistance in intelligence, training, and equipment, but with greater emphasis on local leadership and burden sharing.

The campaign’s data-driven approach could extend to foreign policy and military operations, potentially revolutionizing the identification of terrorist networks, threat prediction, and resource allocation. However, the effectiveness of such strategies in complex geopolitical landscapes remains uncertain, dependent on data quality and the ability to translate analytical insights into actionable intelligence on the ground. This evolving approach presents both opportunities and challenges for addressing the persistent threats posed by extremist armed groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS across the African continent.

The RNC 2024 stands as a testament to the evolving nature of American political conventions and campaign strategies. The formal nomination of Donald Trump, backed by an overwhelming majority of delegates, sets the stage for a fiercely contested 2024 election with far-reaching implications for both domestic and foreign policy.

As the convention unfolds, it serves not only as a celebration of party unity but also as a launching pad for a campaign that seeks to blend traditional political mobilization with cutting-edge data analysis. The coming months will reveal whether this sophisticated approach to voter engagement can successfully navigate the complexities of a deeply divided country and secure victory in November.

The RNC 2024 marks not just the selection of a nominee, but the unveiling of a new era in political campaigning—one where the power of data and the passion of grassroots support converge to shape the future of American democracy.

Pearl Matibe
Pearl Matibe
Pearl Matibe is a terrorism subject matter and Africa regional expert at the Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center (TraCCC), at George Mason University's Schar School of Policy and Government. Matibe is also a distinguished journalist, geopolitical analyst, and media commentator with extensive field experience as a State Department and Chief White House Correspondent, for several independent media outlets. In this capacity, Matibe has written extensively about United States grand strategy, its role in great power competition, and the nuances and interplay of its domestic, defense, and foreign policies, and intelligence matters. Pearl's portfolio boasts interviews with current and former high-ranking U.S. Government officials, ambassadors, and Foreign Service personnel, spanning multiple administrations, African leaders in the Sahel region, and heads of government. Matibe has extensive expertise in the history, military exercises, and engagement activities of the U.S. Africa Command, and expeditionary sea base USS Hershel “Woody” Williams’ port calls on the African continent. She has done extensive coverage of conflicts, including on U.S. counterterrorism activities, and on private mercenary companies in Africa. Matibe's academic background is in international politics, intelligence studies, and international security, which position her as a prominent voice in her areas of expertise: U.S.-Africa relations, Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, the nexus of defense and foreign policies, intelligence matters, international security, emerging and enduring transnational threats, terrorism, and regularly publishes on these. Matibe's contributions to the discourse on global geopolitics and international relations are both impactful and insightful. She has conducted social science research on U.S. security sector assistance to Africa, and has ongoing academic research projects on international security. Matibe graduated magna cum laude from George Mason University.