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Africa: Urgent action needed to mobilise domestic resources as tax revenues plateau

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The average tax-to-GDP ratio for the 26 countries participating in the new edition of Revenue Statistics in Africa was unchanged at 17.2% for the third consecutive year in 2017. This was lower than the averages for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) at 22.8% and for the OECD at 34.2%, underlining the need for urgent action to enhance domestic revenue mobilisation in Africa.

The 26 countries covered in Revenue Statistics in Africa 2019, released today in Tunis at the African Union’s 13th Session of the Committee of Directors-General of National Statistics Offices, represent nearly three-quarters of Africa’s GDP. The report shows that tax-to-GDP ratios varied widely across these countries in 2017, ranging from 5.7% in Nigeria to 31.5% in the Seychelles. This fourth edition has grown from 21 to 26 countries and includes Equatorial Guinea, Madagascar, Mauritania, Nigeria and the Seychelles for the first time.

While tax revenues plateaued as a percentage of GDP for the Africa (26) in 2017, non-tax revenues (primarily rents and royalties from natural resources, as well as grants) continued to decline and were lower than tax revenues in all but three of the 26 countries: Botswana, the Republic of the Congo and Equatorial Guinea. Between 2010 and 2017, an increase in tax revenues equivalent to 1.9% of GDP on average was offset by a decline in non-tax revenues from 7.5% of GDP to 5.7% of GDP.

African economies continue to rely heavily on taxes on goods and services, which accounted for 53.7% of total tax revenues across the 26 countries. Within this category, value-added taxes (VAT) accounted for 29.4% of total tax revenues. Meanwhile, corporate income taxes (CIT) generated 18.6% of total tax revenues – a higher proportion than in LAC and in the OECD – and were equivalent to 2.8% of GDP in 2017. This is the same level as in 2016, halting the decline in CIT as a percentage of GDP since 2013.

Overall, the tax structure across participating countries has evolved over the past decade, with VAT and personal income tax (PIT) accounting for a higher proportion of revenue generation in 2017 relative to 2008, on average. However, PIT (15.4% of total tax revenues) and social security contributions (8.1% of total tax revenues) remain low in Africa. Reforms to broaden the personal tax base, remove harmful and regressive subsidies, and expand social insurance coverage can assist in domestic resource mobilisation efforts while contributing to inclusive growth.

Enhancing the efficiency of VAT systems can also provide higher and more sustainable revenues, and improve distributional or environmental outcomes. Environmental taxes are found to represent a small but increasing share of tax revenues in Africa and can have an important role in raising revenues and encouraging the transition to a low-carbon economy. Property taxes are shown to be much lower in Africa than in LAC and in the OECD but have the potential to play a key role in funding better local services. Equally, improvements in governance and spending may also lead to higher revenues by improving tax morale and making citizens more willing to pay taxes.

A special feature assesses the potential impact of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on the level and structure of tax revenues, drawing on the detailed data on these revenues in this report. While AfCFTA is likely to strengthen Africa’s economic growth and increase tax revenues in the medium-to-long term, the elimination of taxes on trade within the region will likely reduce revenues in the short term. Trade taxes accounted for 11.8% of total taxation on average in 2017 across the 26 countries in this report.  Low-income and least developed countries in the region tend to rely more on trade taxes and are more vulnerable to the short-term impact of reduced trade taxes, underlining the importance of the flexibility mechanisms envisaged by the AfCFTA.

Revenue Statistics in Africa is a joint initiative between the African Tax Administration Forum (ATAF), the African Union Commission (AUC) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and its Development Centre, with the technical support of the African Development Bank (AfDB), the World Customs Organisation (WCO) and the Cercle de Réflexion et d’Échange des Dirigeants des Administrations fiscales (CREDAF) and the financial support of the European Union.

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Aviation Sector Calls for Unified Cybersecurity Practices to Mitigate Growing Risks

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airplane travel

The aviation industry needs to unify its approach to prevent cybersecurity shocks, according to a new study released today by the World Economic Forum. The increased level of interdependencies can lead to systemic risks and cascading effects as airlines, airports and aircraft manufacturing take different approaches to countering cyber risks.

To guard against these risks and create a streamlined approach with civil aviation authorities, the World Economic Forum has launched the Cyber Resilience in Aviation initiative in collaboration with more than 50 companies.

The latest report, Pathways to a Cyber Resilient Aviation Industry, developed in collaboration with Deloitte, outlines how the industry – from airlines to airports to manufacturing and the supply chain – can work with a common language and baseline of practices. The report focuses on mitigating the impact of future digital threats on multiple levels:

International:

· Aligning regulations globally

· Establishing a baseline of cyber resilience across the supply and value chain

· Designing an impartial assessment and benchmarking framework

· Developing international information-sharing standards

National:

· Enabling reskilling

· Rewarding more open communication on aviation incidents

Organizational:

· Integrating cyber resilience in business resilience practices

· Ensuring risk assessment and prioritization

· Improving collaboration

“The aviation industry has developed a strong track record of safety, resilience and security practices for physical threats and must integrate cyber risks into this culture of safety and resilience,” said Georges De Moura, Head of Industry Solutions, Centre for Cybersecurity, World Economic Forum. “A common understanding and approach to existing and emerging threats will enable industry and government actors to embrace a risk-informed cybersecurity approach to ensure a secure and resilient aviation ecosystem.”

“The work of the World Economic Forum on aviation cyber resilience complements these global efforts led by the ICAO and is another excellent example of the importance of broad-based international collaboration among public and private stakeholders,” said Fang Liu, Secretary-General, International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).

“Adopting a collaborative cyber-resilience stance and creating trust between cross-sector organizations, national and supranational authorities is the logical yet challenging next step,” said Chris Verdonck, Partner, Deloitte, Belgium. “However, if the effort is not collective, cyber risks will persist for all. Further solidifying an extensive and inclusive community and developing and implementing a security baseline is key to adapt to the current digital reality.”

The Cyber Resilience in Aviation initiative has enabled organizations to create plans as a community to safeguard against current and future risks. It convenes over 80 experts from more than 50 organizations across global aviation and technology companies, international organizations, trade associations and national government agencies. Major collaborators include ICAO, NCSC, EASA, IATA, ACI, Eurocontrol and UK CAA.

The recommendations and principles developed by the community have been published in a set of reports, allowing companies worldwide to learn from their insights and develop their own policies to ensure cybersecurity in aviation.

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Wide Variations in Post-COVID ‘Return to Normal’ Expectations

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London, UK, Covid-19 restrictions in place in Soho. IMF/Jeff Moore

A new IPSOS/World Economic Forum survey found that almost 60% expect a return to pre-COVID normal within the next 12 months. including 6% who think this is already the case, 9% who think it will take no more than three months, 13% four to six months, and 32% seven to 12 months (the median time). About one in five think it will take more than three years (10%) or that it will never happen (8%).

Views on when to expect a return to normal vary widely across countries: Over 70% of adults in Saudi Arabia, Russia, India, and mainland China are confident their life will return to pre-COVID normal within a year. In contrast, 80% in Japan and more than half in France, Italy, South Korea, and Spain expect it will take longer.

At a global level, expectations about how long it will take before one’s life can return to its pre-COVID normal and how long it will take for the pandemic to be contained are nearly identical. These findings suggest that people across the world consider that being able to return to “normal” life is entirely dependent on containing the pandemic.

An average of 45% of adults globally say their mental and emotional health has gotten worse since the beginning of the pandemic about a year ago. However, one in four say their mental health has improved since the beginning of the year (23%), about as many that say it has worsened (27%).

How long before coronavirus pandemic is contained?

Similar to life returning to pre-COVID normal, 58% on average across all countries and markets surveyed expect the pandemic to be contained within the next year, including 13% who think this is already the case or will happen within 3 months, 13% between four and six months and 32% between seven and 12 months (the median time in most markets).

Majorities in India, China, and Saudi Arabia think the pandemic is already contained or will be within the next 6 months. In contrast, four in five in Japan and more than half in Australia, France, Poland, Spain, and Sweden expect it will take more than a year.

Change in emotional and mental health since beginning of the pandemic about a year ago

On average across the 30 countries and markets surveyed, 45% of adults say their emotional and mental health has gotten worse since the beginning of the pandemic about a year ago, three times the proportion of adults who say it has improved (16%)

In 11 countries, at least half report a decline in their emotional and mental health with Turkey (61%), Chile (56%), and Hungary (56%) showing the largest proportions.

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African fisheries need reforms to boost resilience after Covid-19

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The African fisheries sector could benefit substantially from proper infrastructure and support services, which are generally lacking. The sector currently grapples with fragile value chains and marketing, weak management institutions and serious issues relating to the governance of fisheries resources.

These were the findings of a study that the African Natural Resources Centre conducted from March to May 2020. The centre is a non-lending department of the African Development Bank. The study focused on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic in four countries – Morocco, Mauritania, Senegal and Seychelles. The countries’ economies depend heavily on marine fisheries. The fisheries sector is also a very large source of economic activity elsewhere in Africa. It provides millions of jobs all over the continent.

The study dwells on appropriate and timely measures that the four countries have taken to avoid severe supply disruptions, save thousands of jobs and maintain governance transparency amid the ongoing global uncertainty and crisis.

Infrastructure shortcomings include landing facilities, storage and processing capacity, social and sanitary equipment, water and power, ice production, and roads to access markets.

Based on the findings, researchers made recommendations to strengthen the resilience of Africa’s fisheries sector in the context of a prolonged crisis, and looking ahead to a post-Covid-19 recovery.

The report strongly advocates for:

– Increased acknowledgment of the essential role of marine fisheries stakeholders and the right of artisanal fishermen to access financial and material resources.

– Strengthening the collection of gender-disaggregated statistical data in a sector that employs a vast number of women and youth.

– Establishing infrastructure and support services at landing and processing sites of fishery products, with priority access to water.

– Investing in human capital to ensure high-level skills in the different areas of fisheries management.

– Improving governance frameworks by encouraging the private sector and civil society to participate in formulating sectoral policies and resource management measures.

The study recommends urgent reforms to make marine fisheries more resilient and enable the sector to contribute sustainably to the wealth of the continent’s coastal countries.

Marine fisheries are a crucial contributor to food security and quality of life in Africa. Good nutrition is a key factor to quality of life, and the marine fisheries sector supports the nutrition of more than 300 million people, the majority of whom are children, youth and women. It also provides more than 10 million direct and indirect jobs.

Dominated by artisanal fishing and traditional value chains, the fisheries sector in Africa is mainly informal and is rarely considered in public policies or in assessing the wealth of countries.

Like other sectors, the African fisheries sector has been severely hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. Covid has affected supply markets and regional trade. This has resulted in substantial economic losses for most households that depend on fisheries.

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