Enveloped within the Conditional two-week Ceasefire deal and the dwindling Peace talks is a lesson for the US to avoid overstretching its power beyond the Hemisphere, especially when the regime is rigid to survive multiple blows for over a month. The US has lost more than it has achieved in its Middle Eastern Adventure, in line with this, its close ally, Israel. A war that started a month ago, with strikes on 1000 targets on the first day, followed by 500-600 targets every day. With its aid, it does the additional hits, expanding the war for its own advantages in Lebanon, and weakening its regional enemy, Iran.
After the threat to end the civilization, Trump decided to resort to the deal mediated by Pakistan with Iran. Whether it was an actual threat or a bluff before accepting the deal to project that he was about to do something horrific and destructive, but then chose peace to save it all, a Classic Trump excuse.
A war that is asymmetric in nature is something the US has experienced before and lost as well in Vietnam. The lessons it never learnt, the decades it lost, and the retreat it did. Then came the hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan, where it wasted twenty years, only to leave it in the hands of the Taliban. The nuances of these wars must have given the US the chance to view things from a perspective different than continental or hemispherical. The nuances involving systems, people, and territory that are different and cannot be just invaded and exploited.
Again, it is repeating its mistake in Iran though it agreed to a two-week ceasefire, which is still at work at the time of writing and also ended up participating in Islamabad Talks, which, however, did not fail but was not successful either. It has not been able to have a graceful exit from asymmetric warfare and with Trump and his Violence Cloaked with Peace Narrative, it becomes more difficult.
There have been successful substantive talks and the difference has been on the nuclear program. Mediation was successful in providing a platform the rest was on the parties at conflict to agree or disagree on. Peace cannot be achieved until and unless the US has clarity regarding the time it would likely withdraw and is rational enough to leave things not worse than they are now. Neither can it be achieved if Iran does not develop trust in the US and for now, it has a trust deficient on US.
The US’s next move was a blockade on blockade though hoping that this might take the conditional control of the Strait of Hormuz that Iran developed during the war. This is the control that US passively granted Iran itself and University of Chicago Professor Robert Pape argued that Iran has become the one of the Major Power and no, not because they are now equal in power to other great power rather its conditional control on Strait of Hormuz that has resulted in it being able to put its conditions at the negotiation table with conviction and confidence.
US has mired itself into quicksand, and now even the negotiation does not seem to be a way out. At the time of writing, the situation regarding the US-Iran negotiations is unclear. Islamabad talks are over or not, no one has the answer yet. There are different statements regarding who will be coming from the US for Second round of Islamabad Talks. One Statement claims it would be JD Vance, another Trump, another again Vance, and then the statements regarding Iranian leaders refusing to be a part of the second round of negotiation. There is no clarity by the parties at conflict on how to end the conflict. Iran sees itself in an advantageous position and does not want to sacrifice the nuclear deal, as this would end the assumed deterrence impact on the region, or primarily Israel. For this, Robert Pape argued that the relative security would be determined by the decision taken. As Iran loses its nuclear capabilities or enrichment programs, it will lose regional impact, the US leaves nuclear, and then the whole cause it kept reiterating will be lost.
The world is confused, so is the US, on how to end the war without leaving a Vietnam resembling a mark on the current regime and how to create a narrative that Iran wanted it and we brought world peace. Even at this moment, Trump claimed that Iran wanted it, so we are doing it. Iran, on the other hand, seems not to be ready yet for the second round at the negotiating table as long as it is not being offered a fair deal. Now, it has become difficult even for the US to beat a retreat. The escalation engulfed the US deep into it, and the only way out is the negotiation table, which itself appears to be in murky waters at the moment.
