Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under mounting pressure as his far-right coalition fractures over U.S. President Donald Trump’s push to end the Gaza war. Trump’s 20-point peace plan aimed at demilitarizing Gaza, freeing hostages, and charting a post-war political framework has been embraced by Netanyahu but fiercely opposed by his ultra-nationalist allies. The plan proposes disarming Hamas while allowing its members to remain in Gaza if they renounce violence. As negotiations between Israel and Hamas resume in Egypt, the internal divisions within Israel’s ruling coalition threaten to derail the diplomatic process.
Why It Matters
The political rift in Israel poses a major obstacle to U.S.-led peace efforts and could plunge the country into early elections, jeopardizing regional stability. Netanyahu’s balancing act between appeasing hardliners who reject any Hamas role and addressing the demands of hostage families and international allies highlights Israel’s deep domestic polarization after nearly two years of war. The crisis also threatens to stall broader U.S. objectives, such as expanding the Abraham Accords to include key Muslim nations like Saudi Arabia, which has conditioned normalization on a Gaza ceasefire and a path toward Palestinian statehood.
- Benjamin Netanyahu: Caught between Trump’s diplomatic expectations and the uncompromising stance of his far-right partners, Netanyahu risks political collapse if his coalition fragments.
- Far-Right Ministers (Ben-Gvir & Smotrich): Strongly oppose any arrangement that leaves Hamas intact, calling a pause in Gaza operations a “grave mistake.” Their parties control 13 of 120 Knesset seats and could trigger elections by quitting the coalition.
- Donald Trump & U.S. Administration: Actively pushing to end the war and reshape the Middle East through diplomacy. Trump has publicly urged Israel to halt its bombing campaign to allow negotiations in Egypt to proceed.
- Opposition Leader Yair Lapid: Offering political backing to Netanyahu to stabilize the government and ensure the Trump plan advances, even proposing to set an election date to sideline extremist partners.
- Hamas: Has partially accepted Trump’s proposal, agreeing to negotiate hostage releases and engage in a “Palestinian national framework,” though it rejects disarmament.
- Regional Powers (Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia): Egypt and Qatar serve as mediators in the Sharm el-Sheikh talks, while Saudi Arabia’s normalization with Israel remains contingent on an end to the conflict and Palestinian sovereignty progress.
Future Scenario
Israel’s political landscape faces an inflection point. If Netanyahu cannot manage dissent within his coalition, early elections could be triggered well before the 2026 deadline. Meanwhile, Trump’s peace initiative remains fragile lacking a clear timeline for Hamas’ disarmament or specifics on Palestinian statehood. Despite U.S. pressure and ongoing negotiations in Egypt, Israeli airstrikes have continued, deepening skepticism about a near-term ceasefire. While Netanyahu insists his government’s goals align with Trump’s plan ensuring Israel’s security and Hamas’ surrender both domestic and external tensions make swift progress unlikely. The coming weeks will determine whether diplomacy can outlast political volatility or if Israel’s internal divisions will derail yet another attempt to end the Gaza war.
With information from Reuters.
