The recent US-Israel attacks on Iran has triggered an avalanche of analysis by a range of different specialists on the many media platforms that the public are familiar with. Some of these experts speak from the perspective of economics; others from regional security and others talk strictly from political domains only. A few have even raised concerns about the likely environmental effects of this war.
For instance, the economics editor of The Guardian newspaper Heather Stewart writes very coherently about the negative economic impact of the war in this article. Certainly, she is concerned regarding the upwards price spiral of oil per barrel in the international trading markets and the negative impact this will have on the poor.
In another article she makes it clear the devastating impact of this war on another overlooked but very critical commodity: food. She claims that African countries like Kenya and Tanzania are being devastated especially the farming sectors because they cannot sell their tea and avocados to wealthy nations in the Gulf nor to Pakistan because of the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, again this is an economic effect that far transcends the geographical roots of this war in the Middle-East.
I think largely we can agree and see that the economic impact of high oil prices because of this war, and the trading disruptions due to the blockage of the critical chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz are undeniable. It is not irrational to conclude that higher than average oil prices over the short-to-medium term is the likely outcome of this war, and that as a result of these changes, the global economy will become a much more challenging environment for the poorer nations and even the poorer citizens of the developed countries. We can simply extend this reasoning over the long-term if the pressure on prices likely continues if the war extends into the coming weeks and months, a scenario not known with certainty.
But we can see, based on the available evidence, such as the ongoing exchange of violence and aggressive rhetoric between US-Israel officials on the one hand and the Iranians and their proxies on the other that this economic nightmare is more likely to extend in some form for a while. And even if the hostilities were to end today, the mutual distrust and need for deterrence from the Iranian and even the Western perspective makes long-term peace in the region difficult to imagine.
In fact, just today as I write this paper Mauricio Alencar the City A.M economics and politics expert is warning that oil prices are rising rapidly, and the world could be plunged into a real recession. Oil is being reported now at $116 a barrel, which is an unsustainable price, and has enormous economic implications. The situation is so bad in Asian markets that according to The Washington Post in countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh angry motorists are killing gas station workers over lack of fuel. Furthermore, in the Philippines there is a national emergency due to the crisis in Iran, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to the BBC. Things are not better economically in India, Vietnam, and Myanmar either, with an economic crisis crushing these countries too, according to the same report.
On Al Jazeera we have the analysis from the security perspective by Sina Toossi who convincingly argues that Iranian leaders are more likely now to view nuclear weapons as a much more credible security guarantee than diplomacy. This should not be surprising since a non-nuclear Iran failed to deter the US-Israel alliance with asymmetric warfare involving missiles, drones and proxies, which are low-cost technologies that are not categorized as weapons of mass destruction. Anything non-nuclear that Iran had as a form of military deterrence failed to yield any form of security from a massive military attack by the US or Israel.
Furthermore, according to the analysis of Daniel Levy who authored the essay on Al Jazeera titled Did Israel miscalculate in launching the war on Iran? this war will accelerate the decline of the US and Israel hegemony in the middle east. I think this is quite correct; in fact, Paul Krugman argues using a similar line of reasoning that the one thing that was of critical importance to America’s power has been destroyed. He claims that alliances made the US great, and this has collapsed during Trump’s era, in this article appropriately titled: Decline and Fall of the American Empire. One thing to note is that the article by Krugman is not in the context of the US-Israel war on Iran specifically but generally the impact of Trump on the world order and how it has made the US weaker. The thing is this latest conflict which has happened months after he wrote his essay, has made American alliances even less cohesive and reliable especially in the context of the Gulf nations in the Middle East, where US security has failed to protect them from considerable retaliation from Iran.
On the security side of things, it is apparent to me that countries will consider weapons technologies to be of fundamental importance that requires the most focus in terms of financial and human investment.
According to Georgia Cole, an expert researcher writing in Chatham House a British think-tank, the current war on Iran risks a nuclear proliferation in the Middle-East and East Asia as countries take the dangerous conclusion that countries in possession of nuclear weapons such as North Korea do not get attacked, but countries that abandon or simply do not possess nuclear weapons like Libya, Iraq and Iran get attacked. The title of her article itself is noteworthy to the extent that I wish to quote it in full: “The Iran war risks triggering a new wave of nuclear proliferation”
A recent CNN article essentially makes a similar case in this ominously titled question “Cornered and wounded, will Iran now go for a nuclear bomb?”
There is a news report from a credible source that hardliners in the Iranian political scene are demanding that they withdraw from the Treaty of the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). It appears that one long-term security implication of the US-Israel war on Iran is the spread of nuclear weapons, according to the analysis conducted by Debak Das, a professor in the US.
One thing to note is that on the domestic political front in Israel, we see that there is a hardening of society and law itself to the extent that a law has been passed that now applies the death penalty to Palestinians. This has been condemned across the world for its discriminatory nature where only Palestinians are executed and the Israelis convicted of the same crimes are not. In this detailed analytical article by Al Jazeera, there is a greater elucidation of the circumstances of the recent legislative changes in this regard.
In the final analysis, the likely long-term implications of the US-Israel war on Iran are predicated by the twin factors of duration and intensity of the conflict. If the war lasts a long time and is especially violent, then the implications economically, politically, socially, legally, culturally, and strategically will be very bad for everyone, including the US-Israel/Western alliance. In my understanding, this conflict is likely to last a long-time, and in fact the roots of this latest violent chapter between the story of the West and Iran are centuries in the making.
The likely long-term implications of the US-Israel war on Iran are determined by how long the conflict lasts and how much violence is used by all the actors. If the war lasts a long time, then the chances of a large and negative economic, political, social, legal and cultural impact will be higher than if the war were to last a short period of time and the violence was less.
There is no question that the crisis in the Middle East caused by the US-Israel war on Iran has created a set of cataclysmic shocks that are unfolding across the world. From Asia to Africa and to Europe and even the United States of America, the negative economic effects are becoming clearer as each day passes with no end in sight to this conflict. CNBC has argued that all major economies will be negatively impacted by this war; however, the United Kingdom is in a particularly negative position, showing the greatest vulnerability.
An important implication to note is the emergence of a new world order where Iran becomes a fourth major global power, alongside the three well-known powers: US, Russia and China. This is the conclusion that a respected academic from the University of Chicago, Robert A. Pape has reached in this New York Times essay he authored. The title is worth stating here in full: The War Is Turning Iran Into a Major World Power
His line of reasoning can be summed as follows: control of the Strait of Hormuz gives Iran enough power and influence to render it a fourth centre of global power.
Conclusion
In the final judgement, the predictions that I make as to the probable long-term implications of the US-Israel war on Iran are the following:
A new Iranian attempt that is much more determined than prior to the war to become a nuclear-armed nation. And this time the majority of the population in support of this new-found enthusiasm, consistent with the “rallying around the flag” effect.
Negative Economic impact for the world and so on including Higher oil prices, fuel shortages in the world including in developed economies, recession in developing nations.
Potential political polarization as poverty increases in the world, including in developed nations.
