U. S. military planning regarding Iran has progressed significantly, with options including targeted attacks on individuals and potential regime change in Tehran if President Donald Trump decides. Military preparations signal serious intentions to confront Iran should diplomatic efforts fail. Reports indicate the U. S. could launch a sustained operation against Iran, targeting its security and nuclear facilities.
The discussions suggest a shift in strategy under Trump, who has expressed interest in regime change in Iran. U. S. officials, remaining anonymous due to the sensitive nature of the planning, did not disclose specifics on potential targets or the military approach for regime change without a large ground presence. This marks a departure from Trump’s previous campaign promises to move away from military interventions that characterize past U. S. policies in places like Afghanistan and Iraq.
The U. S. has amassed considerable military resources in the Middle East, mainly through warships and fighter aircraft, which would support any bombing campaigns. In his first term, Trump authorized targeted killings, including a notable strike on Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in 2020. The Trump administration has designated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist organization, a first for a national military.
One U. S. official referenced Israel’s effective targeting of Iranian commanders during a past conflict with Iran, noting that such operations require substantial intelligence capabilities. Still, there is uncertainty about what specific intelligence the U. S. possesses regarding Iranian leaders who might be targeted.
Trump has recently raised the prospect of regime change in Iran, suggesting it could be beneficial, although he did not identify potential successors. He has previously opted for special operations rather than large troop deployments, as seen in a recent attempt to unseat Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro. Despite exploring these military options, Trump has also indicated hope for diplomacy, stating dire consequences may arise if no agreement is reached and hinting at a timeline of 10 to 15 days for a decision.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard stated it could retaliate against U. S. military bases in the region if attacked. The U. S. maintains bases across the Middle East, putting them at risk of retaliation. In a letter to the U. N., Iran asserted it would not initiate conflict but would respond decisively to military aggression, emphasizing its right to self-defense. U. S. officials anticipate that an attack would provoke a strong Iranian response, increasing the risk of casualties and escalating conflict regionally.
Trump’s threats toward Iran have influenced oil prices, and a Russian warship recently joined Iranian naval drills in a critical global shipping route. Iran has previously threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to an attack, which would significantly disrupt global oil supply.
U. S. and Iranian negotiators met to discuss guiding principles, yet considerable differences remain. Iran is reluctant to make significant concessions regarding its nuclear program, which it maintains is peaceful, despite U. S. and Israeli claims of its nuclear ambitions. A senior U. S. official noted that Iran would submit a written proposal to address U. S. concerns. Trump emphasized that peace in the Middle East is unattainable as long as Iran possesses nuclear weapons.
With information from Reuters
