Important and even fateful historical processes most often occur after very significant events. Major wars, revolutions, and conflicts have often been such events in history. However, long-term political and socio-cultural processes also tend to unfold over long periods of time. This can be especially true for economic processes, which, as is well known, are deeply connected to and often dependent on political processes and relations. Political and economic processes in Central Asia and South Asia are developing very actively, even dramatically. However, at least so far, no significant events that could be considered fateful have been observed here.
Central Asia demonstrates impressive examples of economic and demographic growth. For example, in the outgoing year 2024, the countries of Central Asia are demonstrating stable economic growth. Economists estimate this growth at approximately 5.7% of GDP. It is worth noting that this figure exceeds the global average. Overall, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan are developing faster than many regions of the world, including Europe and Latin America. By comparison, Latin America’s average GDP growth for the same period in 2024 was 2.1%. The demographic situation is characterized by rapid and constant population growth. Some countries in the region will soon have populations greater than those of the leading European nuclear powers.
Stable authoritarian growth, abundant natural resources, and a key geostrategic position on the global map attract significant attention from the world’s leading superpowers. Central Asia is located in the heart of Eurasia. It enjoys proximity to the powerful and rising superpower China and to India, also a rapidly developing nuclear power. And, of course, Russia is the continent’s leading nuclear and military superpower. The countries of Central Asia are also geographically close to Iran, a major regional power with serious ambitions and a unique political system. In short, the summit of the five Central Asian states (C5), held at the White House in the United States in mid-November, has its own geopolitical logic and significance.
American strategists understand the region’s geographic and resource significance. They are well aware of the region’s strengths and weaknesses, as well as its complex relationships with its neighbors. Regardless of who holds power in the White House—Democrat or Republican—the strategic line of expanding its sphere of influence will persist. The forms and priorities will change, but America’s active participation in geopolitical processes will not significantly diminish. Under Donald Trump, the United States has reduced its presence in a number of regions, particularly in the Middle East. However, active diplomacy and foreign policy remain among the main tools of the American state.
South Asia, a region neighboring Central Asia, is experiencing difficult times. The region’s key nerve—the military confrontation between the region’s largest powers, India and Pakistan—has acquired a new, dramatic dynamic in recent years. In April and May 2025, the long-standing, irreconcilable conflict between the two enormous countries gained new momentum. In response to horrific terrorist attacks in the disputed Kashmir region, India launched Operation Sindoor. Delhi accused the Pakistani military of supporting the Islamist groups that carried out the attack. The notorious Pakistani terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba has a significant and long-standing presence in Pakistani cities. Furthermore, the terrorist attack in Kashmir had a distinctly religious dimension. Radical Islamists committed murders against Hindus, emphasizing the religious nature of their actions. It is worth noting that Pakistan denies any involvement in the radicals’ continued presence and notes that it is itself a target of various terrorist groups, including Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. The armed conflict between India and Pakistan was short-lived, but tensions continue. Both countries are actively strengthening their armed forces, including the latest systems. Consequently, another escalation is entirely expected. The situation is exacerbated by another conflict in the Central Asian and South Asian region, which came as a surprise to many. Following the victory of the Taliban and the reincarnation of the Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan, relations between Kabul and Islamabad have reached a historic low. The former allies have engaged in a series of armed clashes along the border and are in a virtual state of cold war. Pakistan has long patronized and supported the Taliban. However, after their victory and seizure of power in Afghanistan, the Taliban no longer wish to remain under the influence of the Pakistani military. Pakistan, in turn, does not want to lose its influence over Afghan politics and seeks to force the Taliban to consider its interests. Consequently, this conflict is far from over.
Afghanistan is seeking to significantly expand trade with resource-rich Central Asian countries, aiming to end its economic dependence on Pakistan, historically Kabul’s largest trading partner. Some people in the region have already called on Afghan traders and investors to cease operations in Pakistan and seek new business and trade opportunities in Central Asia. Taliban Deputy Prime Minister Abdul Ghani Baradar accused Islamabad of using trade as a “tool of political pressure” and called the ongoing border closure evidence that Kabul must reduce its dependence on its eastern neighbor.
However, the situation for Afghans is complicated by the fact that economic ties with Pakistan have a long history, and diversifying trade will be quite difficult.
According to statistics, trade between Afghanistan and the five Central Asian states is growing steadily, reaching nearly $1.7 billion. Most of this volume consists of Afghan imports, including flour, fuel, vegetable oil, and construction materials. Kazakhstan has become a major trading partner for Afghanistan. In 2024, Astana and Kabul signed a roadmap to increase bilateral trade to $3 billion over the coming years. Uzbekistan remains one of Afghanistan’s most active trading partners. According to official Uzbek data, bilateral trade reached $1.1 billion in 2024. Tashkent and Kabul plan to increase bilateral trade to $2 billion by 2025. Despite Afghanistan’s growing trade with Central Asia, Kabul remains dependent on Pakistan.
Thus, the Central and South Asian region is home to actively developing countries with rapidly growing economies and populations. At the same time, authoritarian governance methods provide some stability for the countries in the region. The most powerful country is India—nuclear-armed, ambitious, and the world’s most populous and wealthy. The countries of Central Asia are demonstrating stable, but not rapid, development. To a certain extent, they depend on Russia, which provides patronage and helps stabilize the political systems and economies of many Central Asian countries. The active involvement of non-regional Western countries in the region’s political and economic processes could undermine stability and lead to new conflicts, both within elite groups and between major regional powers. Relations between the former allied powers—Afghanistan and Pakistan—are developing in a complex manner. This conflict has significant potential for continuation. In short, the region faces new challenges and opportunities. Whether it will overcome them remains to be seen.
