Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) is set to visit the White House, his first trip to Washington since the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. U.S. President Donald Trump has touted the prospects of Saudi Arabia normalising ties with Israel, following the Abraham Accords with the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco.
However, Riyadh has signalled that formal relations with Israel will only occur if a credible roadmap for Palestinian statehood is agreed, maintaining alignment with public sentiment and long-standing regional policy
Key Issues
Israel Normalisation: Saudi Arabia will not recognise Israel without progress toward a sovereign Palestinian state, including a clear Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and empowerment of the Palestinian Authority. Netanyahu’s opposition to Palestinian statehood complicates immediate progress.
Defence Pact: Saudi Arabia aims to seal a limited U.S.-Saudi defence agreement, expanding military cooperation, joint exercises, and advanced weapons sales.The pact stops short of a full treaty requiring Congressional approval, but could evolve into one if Israel normalisation progresses.
Regional Security Dynamics: Threats from Iran and its proxies have diminished due to Israeli strikes and other regional developments. Riyadh seeks to curb expanding ties with China in military technology, balancing strategic autonomy with U.S. guarantees.
Economic & Investment Interests: Saudi Arabia is keen to ensure defence cooperation and investment discussions remain central, avoiding being overshadowed by the politically sensitive Israel normalisation issue.
Trump’s Position
Trump remains upbeat about expanding the Abraham Accords but faces Riyadh’s insistence on Palestinian statehood as a precondition. He has suggested Saudi Arabia could join “very soon” but has not provided a timeline.
Other Considerations
Arab public mistrust of Israel remains high, intensified by Israel’s recent Gaza operations.
Saudi officials are keen to keep negotiations incremental, separating national security guarantees from broader regional issues.
The U.S.-Saudi discussions reflect a strategic recalibration, with regional security concerns now balanced against political, economic, and diplomatic priorities.
Analysis
The Trump-MbS meeting underscores the complexity of Middle East diplomacy. While U.S. influence in the Gulf could be strengthened via defence cooperation, the linkage between normalisation with Israel and Palestinian statehood remains a major hurdle.
Saudi Arabia’s cautious stance signals that domestic legitimacy and regional leadership concerns outweigh external pressure. The limited defence pact is likely a strategic compromise, allowing both parties to demonstrate progress without forcing premature concessions on Israel-Palestine.
In practice, this could set a precedent for incremental diplomacy, where economic and security partnerships advance even as political disputes remain unresolved. However, Trump’s optimism may clash with on-the-ground realities, and any premature public statements could destabilise the negotiation dynamic.
With information from Reuters.
