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Russia: Improving public diplomacy in Africa

Kester Kenn Klomegah
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Russia: Improving public diplomacy in Africa

Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), collaborating with Ministry of Communications, Diplomatic Academy and the Institute for African Studies, plans to launch a short orientation and training programme for senior editors working in the state media organisations in African countries.

The media initiative came up as a follow up to Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s discussions during his African tour early March about rolling out a comprehensive strategic roadmap for a more integrated cooperation and find effective ways of improving public diplomacy in Africa.

On May 16, Sergey Lavrov chaired the Foreign Ministry Collegium meeting on the subject “Cooperation with Sub-Saharan African countries as part of implementing important tasks of Russian foreign policy.”

The meeting noted that the consolidation of versatile ties with the Sub-Saharan African countries remains a major part of Russia’s foreign policy strategy, which is acquiring special significance in the context of deep changes in the global arena.

The MFA has released an official document, available to its website, titled “Concept of the Russian Federation on Cooperation with African Media” stresses the need to cooperate with African media as Russia looks forward to strengthening relations and share strategic interests with Africa on international arena.

According to the MFA “the Russian Federation is implementing programmes of cooperation with various African countries which include education, culture, art, the media and sport.”

The Russian Government supports the pilot programme and will be organised for African media groups in two phases: in October and in May, and planned for a two-year period from 2018 to 2020.

The participants from this pilot programme will be at the forefront to highlight or propagate post-Soviet economic and cultural reality, shape the African perception about Russia and raise Russia’s image and reputation among the political and business community and the general population in Africa.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, this is the first significant step on media cooperation by the official authorities to address the information gap between the two regions. The initiative particularly seeks to bridge the widening business information gap that has existed and might help strengthen bilateral relations between Africa and Russia.

Experts have acknowledged that, for Russia, there are important geopolitical implications working with Africa and unreservedly praised Russia’s initiative for creating this mechanism for media cooperation and for more diversified aspects of its policy with Africa.

Canadian-Nigerian Professor O. Igho Natufe, Head of Ukraine-African Study Center in Kiev, says looking into the future it is important to continue approaching the relationship beyond natural resources and the economy, and to include soft power, so the move will boost the overall relationship in the long-term since the media has a huge role to play.

Undoubtedly, Natufe further explains that frequent exchange of visits by Russian and African journalists as well as regular publications of economic and business reports could help create public business awareness and raise, to an appreciable level, the understanding of the relationship between Russia and Africa.

Earlier, Dr Olga Kulkova, a Research Fellow at the Moscow based Center for the Study of Russian-African Relations, Institute for African Studies, also pointed out that “more quality information about modern Russia should be reported in Africa. Indisputably, it might take a lot of money and efforts, but the result will pay off.”

“It is excellent to adequately collaborate with African partners and attract Russian business to Africa. Russia ought to take this into account, if it wants to improve the chances for success in Africa,” Kulkova said.

Professor Gerrit Olivier from the Department of Political Science, University of Pretoria in South Africa, noted that “Russian influence in Africa, despite efforts towards resuscitation, remains marginal. The cultural gap (language in particular) is a great handicap. The official visits are mainly opening moves and symbolic and have little long-term concrete results.”

While prioritising Africa now, Russia has to do more, particularly, in the cultural-intellectual field (like China, EU and US) with a view to the longer term and work on its image problem in Africa, Professor Olivier, who previously served as South African Ambassador to the Russian Federation from 1991 to 1996, wrote in an email comment from Pretoria, South Africa.

For decades, a number of foreign countries are cooperating with African media to push their strategic policy interests. For example, the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation has fixed China-Africa Press Exchange Center in Shanghai to encourage and promote exchange and visits between Chinese and African media.

In June 2018, China held the Fourth Forum on China-Africa Media Cooperation. A Joint Statement on Further Deepening Exchanges and Cooperation was adopted. During the Johannesburg summit held in 2015, President Xi Jinping said China would implement access to satellite TV for 10,000 African villages and provide training for 1,000 media professionals from Africa.

Ease of Doing Business Varies in Cities Across Croatia, the Czech Republic, Portugal and Slovakia

MD Staff
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Ease of Doing Business Varies in Cities Across Croatia, the Czech Republic, Portugal and Slovakia

The ease of doing business varies substantially among cities within Croatia and the Czech Republic, while the implementation of business regulations is more consistent across cities in Portugal and Slovakia, finds a new World Bank report.

Released today, Doing Business in the European Union 2018: Croatia, the Czech Republic, Portugal and Slovakia covers 25 cities in the four countries.

It finds that Prague is the only capital city which out-performs other cities in the Czech Republic. Bratislava, Lisbon and Zagreb, on the other hand, lag behind most of the smaller cities within their own country.

The report analyzes business regulations affecting domestic small and medium sized firms in five Doing Business areas: Starting a Business, Dealing with Construction Permits, Getting Electricity, Registering Property, and Enforcing Contracts.

The 25 cities covered are: Osijek, Rijeka, Split, Varazdin, and Zagreb in Croatia; Brno, Liberec, Olomouc, Ostrava, Plzen, Prague, and Usti nad Labem in the Czech Republic; Braga, Coimbra, Evora, Faro, Funchal, Lisbon, Ponta Delgada, and Porto in Portugal; and Bratislava, Kosice, Presov, Trnava, and Zilina in Slovakia.

“The unevenness in performance among cities in each country shows that the regulatory reform agenda remains incomplete and suggests opportunity for improvement,” saidRita Ramalho, Senior Manager of the Global Indicators Group at the World Bank. “We hope this report will draw the attention of policy makers in the four countries and serve as a roadmap for reform at the subnational level.”

Key findings include:

In Croatia, entrepreneurs in the smaller cities of Varazdin and Osijek face less hurdles than their counterparts in the three larger cities covered by the report. And, regulatory reforms to improve the ease of doing business over the years have led to inconsistencies in how regulation is implemented at the local level. As a result, Starting a Business is easier in Split; Dealing with Construction Permits and Getting Electricity in Varazdin; while Osijek stands out for its performance in the areas of Registering Property and Enforcing Contracts.

Among the seven cities benchmarked in the Czech Republic, it is the country’s three largest—Prague, Brno and Ostrava—where doing business is easier across the five areas measured. Prague ranks first in two areas (Getting Electricity and Enforcing Contracts), while Brno ranks first in Dealing with Construction Permits and Ostrava in Registering Property—demonstrating the potential for large cities to achieve regulatory efficiency and quality by capitalizing on economies of scale and investing in administrative modernization.

In Portugal, the eight cities benchmarked show the most homogeneous performance, suggesting relatively consistent implementation of regulations across the country. Nevertheless, Porto ranks first in Dealing with Construction Permits but close to the bottom in Registering Property and Enforcing Contracts. Coimbra leads in Getting Electricity and Enforcing Contracts, but lags behind in Dealing with Construction Permits. Faro, along with Funchal and Ponta Delgada, tops the ranking in Registering Property, but ranks last in Getting Electricity.

Smaller cities in Slovakia are more business-friendly as they vie to compete with the capital. Except for Bratislava, each of the five cities benchmarked in Slovakia ranks at the top in at least one area: Starting a Business is easier in Presov and Zilina, construction permitting is more efficient in Presov and Getting Electricity in Zilina. Trnava stands out for its performance in Registering Property and Kosice outperforms its peers in Enforcing Contracts.

Overall, the report finds that the most marked differences in performance within each country are in areas where local authorities have the most autonomy in developing and implementing regulations, such as construction permitting, getting electricity and contract enforcement.

In the areas of Starting a Business and Dealing with Construction Permits, most cities benchmarked have processes that are more complex than the average amongst European Union member states.

Reform-minded officials can make tangible improvements by replicating good practices in other cities in their country. If the capital cities adopted all the good practices found at the subnational level, all four countries would move substantially closer to the global frontier of regulatory best practices. For Croatia, this could mean an improvement of 11 places in the Doing Business global ranking, while Slovakia could improve its rank by nine places.

“The European Commission has been working closely with national and regional authorities, in the context of Cohesion Policy, to set the right conditions for growth and job creation. This report shows how to make the life of businesses and entrepreneurs easier. The future Cohesion Policy for 2021-2027 will continue supporting those reforms that make our regions attractive places to work and invest in,” said Corina Crețu, European Union Commissioner for Regional Policy.

Doing Business in the European Union is a series of subnational reports being produced by the World Bank Group at the request of and funded by the European Commission. A first edition, covering 22 cities in Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania, was released in 2017.

The work on Croatia, the Czech Republic, Portugal and Slovakia is based on the same methodology as the global Doing Business report published annually by the World Bank Group.

Radicalisation of Youth in Indonesia and Counteractions

Abhishek Mohanty
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Radicalisation of Youth in Indonesia and Counteractions

There is a generic proverb that youth are the upcoming leaders of future. But in reality, they are the leaders of contemporary times. Indonesia, with approximately 266 million population, in which almost 25% of the population is occupied by youth falling below the age of 25. Shaping this group for influencing present and future discourses of Indonesia is very important. But this young generation is ghastly being motivated towards radicalism on several pretexts, primarily politically and religiously. One of the several factors is due to identity crisis which is invoked internally by society and externally by subtle indoctrination through mainstream and social media.

There is an increasing consciousness in Indonesia that terror organisations are encouraging youths to join their ranks. This endangerment was clear since 2009 when Indonesian media telecasted a video of an 18-year old preparing himself for suicide bombing at the Hotel Marriott. The video disclosed the serene account about sacrificing one’s life for the sake of religion. The Indonesian media had unconcealed in front of the whole nation that for some of Indonesian youth, it was their responsibility to wage Jihad against infidels in the form of terrorist acts. Indonesian public found it embarrassing to digest this at that time.

But now, a worrying number of Indonesian youth have been exposed to radical political and religious orientation. Approximately 39% of university students have confessed their support to radical organisations. Fifteen provinces of Indonesia now have a “high risk” categorisation. Their students are an easy prey for radical organisations.A related narrative is also going on in Indonesian high schools. Nearly60% of extracurricular Islamic studies students are ready to engage in fierce jihad. This has caused an alarming situation in Indonesia as it is clearly visible that radical radical elements of the society have infiltrated the minds of Indonesian youth.

One of the earliest radical preachers in Indonesia is the Rohani Islam movement, which upsurged after the fall of Suharto’s autocratic regime. It has promoted radical interpretations of Islams to Indonesian youths through evening classes. Rohani apologists are now the most radical section of people in Indonesian society. Around 40% of the supporters backed to transform Indonesia into an Islamic State under a caliphate. The Rohani Islam movement comes under the purview of the Ministry for Education. But there have been negligible attempts to probe or reorient the Rohani Islam movement.

Another renowned radical organisation Jemaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD) has also been radicalising Indonesian youth since the last three years. It was established in 2015, as a result of amalgamation of more than a dozen Indonesian terrorist outfits to strengthen the influence of ISIS in Indonesia, with Aman Abdurrahman, who recently was sentenced to death for his involvement in terrorist attacks, as it’s de facto supremo. According to Indonesian authorities, the family of suicide bombers which recently perpetrated the terrorist attacks in Surabaya had strong connections with JAD. The radical organisation also runs unauthorised boarding schools study groups for Indonesian youth. It has been also alleged by Indonesian authorities that students and teachers from these schools have travelled to Iraq and Syria for training purposes.

With the issue of radicalism gaining momentum in Indonesia, several NGOs have stepped up to counter the influence of radicalism in the Indonesian society. They have carried out majority of the initiatives on deradicalisation of youths. The Wahid Foundation, like for example, visits high schools which are soft targets of radicalisation. Their activists teach lessons on subjects like peace, religious tolerance, multiculturalism and pluralism. The Jakarta-settled NGO Maarif Institute organises an annual camp youth camp to assist youth in countering the influence of radicalism. Its also organises visits to Catholic churches and Buddhist temple to promote inter-faith cooperation and has partnered with Google to host workshops on ways to combat baneful online propaganda.

The radicalization of Indonesian youth is now a major concern for the government, as inflammatory thoughts now easily move through cultures and borders with one touch, more precisely with just tapping tweet or post. There is an urgent need for maximising government initiatives towards youth related policies. Such as, there are very less public investments in youth related national programmes to tap their prolific assets. Recently, President Widodo has announced new policies to forbid youth from coming under the influence of radical views. For developing a robust framework of youth deradicalisation involves modifications in policies, societies and families.

Indonesia’s youth deradicalisation initiatives will be more complex and intriguing in the coming times. Albeit Indonesia is the best model of a multicultural, religious tolerant Muslim-majority secular democracy, still a lot has to be done in developing an environment among the youth that is free from any kind of radical orientations. One aspect can be encouraging ambitious youth leadership. Interactive sessions by senior educators won’t appeal the youth as much when compared with passionate youth leaders.

Radicalism is often a harbinger to terrorism and concentrating on radicalism signals to get rid of terrorism at the nascent stage, before it is too late for non-coercive tactics. Triumphing over radicalism will in the end not be reckoned by military actions but by encouraging non-military policies that tones up the institutional support of human development in the country.

The Yemeni Calculation is Impossible

Sondoss Al Asaad
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The Yemeni Calculation is Impossible

Four years after the global imposed war against the impoverished Yemen and none of the supposed objectives have been attained. Currently, after around a month of the hostile assault on the most important strategic port city of Hodeidah; the Yemenis are more persistent to defend their country and to preserve their sovereignty. Hodeidah; the apple of the Imperialist proxies’ eyes is more determined to put an end to their arrogance and prejudice.

Since the onset of the assault back in 13 June 2018, the Yemeni army, resistance and popular committees have all announced it loudly, “Hodeidah is the Saudis’ graveyard.”  This statement is not a rhetorical slogan but a firm authentic ideology of resistance. Therefore, the thorough system of atrocities, attacks and blockades, etc. has failed to subjugate the Yemenis and indeed will never succeed to do so.

Today and as ever, the Yemenis are more enlightened and conscious of the preprepared conspiracy to overwhelm their country, to loot its oil and natural resources and to occupy the geostrategic locations. Consequently, they are expressing their willingness and readiness to resist until the very end. Although the aggressive coalition have been backed, financed and armed by the colonialist and Capitalist American and European powers, the Saudi mercenaries and vampires would be soon or after defeated.

Whatsoever, national resistance and revolutionary movements are armed by the soul of enthusiasm, determination and persistence. Yemenis, beyond doubt, lack the technological advanced arms and weapons, however; they have a firm belief and perseverance to smash the Imperialist dream in Yemen and to teach the Saudis an unforgettable lesson on how to respect nations’ will and freedom.

Yemen’s western coast will certainly discipline the Donald Trump’s representative; the so called MSM. It will sustain the confrontation after it has interrupted the invasion and caused immense casualties at the enemies’ side. This phenomenal port city has also exposed the assault’s hypocrisy, lies and fake victories.

In Yemen, there is a wise and shrewd leader, i.e. Sayyed Abd-al-malek al-Huthi, and here is secret behind Yemen’s steadfastness and persistence. Thus, a nation who has such a frank, resolute and courageous leadership can hardly be defeated. Besides, what differentiate between the enemies’ soldiers and the Yemenis is that the latter are defending their homeland; their own dignity and cause. Whilst the enemies’ soldiers are prepaid mercenaries who have neither the ideology nor the purpose.

The Saudis and their Western Imperialist proxies ignore the fact that their atrocities and genocides ignite the nationals’ determination to resist and free their country. The quite advanced armoured vehicles have failed to save the lives of hundreds commanders and soldiers. Further, the ongoing air-raids over civil facilities and populated areas have emphasised that the Saudi regime pays no respect to the minimum ethical standards of human rights and obligations.

Act Now for a More Prosperous and Livable Dhaka

MD Staff
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Act Now for a More Prosperous and Livable Dhaka

Through swift measures to develop East Dhaka, Bangladesh has a unique opportunity to relieve the flooding, congestion, and messiness that are clogging the capital’s growth and affecting the quality of life of its people, says a new World Bank report released today.

The report, Toward Great Dhaka: A New Urban Development Paradigm Eastward, lays out a strategic vision for the city to unlock its development potential. Inspired by the success of Pudong, Shanghai, but based on localized economic modeling and simulations, the report recommends three critical interventions to develop East Dhaka. This area is mainly rural at present, but it is located within a few kilometers of the most valuable parts of the city.

The three interventions are: building the eastern embankment along the Balu River to mitigate flooding; developing transport links and public transit to ease congestion; and creating a world-class business district with sound policies to attract firms and residents eastward.

The report analyzes how these interventions could propel Dhaka toward becoming a global city and a stronger economic powerhouse for Bangladesh. If adopted, average income per capita in Dhaka could reach $9,200 by 2035 compared to less than $8,000 on current trends.

“Dhaka’s residents currently face many difficulties, as the city’s infrastructure development has not kept pace with the substantial growth of its population and traffic” said Martin Rama, the World Bank’s Chief Economist for South Asia. “Developing East Dhaka with a strategic approach will result in a more prosperous and livable city. But action must be taken now, to avoid replicating the messy urban development of the past, and to mitigate environmental and social risks. Fixing East Dhaka in the future will be much more expensive and difficult.”

Dhaka’s population has increased from 3 million in 1980 to more than 18 million today, with 3.5 million residents currently living in slums that lack basic services. Average driving speed has slowed from 21km/h to less than 7km/h, and 3.2 million working hours are wasted everyday due to congestion. Social costs will worsen without a different approach to urban development, as Greater Dhaka will be home to 25 million people by 2035 on current trends.

 “Because of its vast size and proximity to the city center, East Dhaka represents a golden opportunity that few megacities in the world have. But seizing this opportunity requires a clear mandate by authorities, good collaboration between agencies, and concerted implementation” said Qimiao Fan, the World Bank’s Country Director for Bangladesh. “As a long-term development partner, the World Bank stands ready to work with the government and the people of Bangladesh to transform the dream of a great Dhaka into a reality.” 

The three interventions proposed in the report could enable Dhaka to comfortably host an extra 5 million inhabitants, and to create 1.8 million additional jobs, compared to a continuation of business as usual. The interventions would cost about $15 billion, but they could lead to $53 billion in increased economic activity per year by 2035. They would also result in an improved quality of life for Dhaka’s inhabitants, and alleviate many of the challenges the city currently faces.

A Fourth Of July Perspective

Dr. Arshad M. Khan
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A Fourth Of July Perspective

The US celebrated the glorious Fourth, the nation’s independence day and the myths going along with it.  As with most wars, the elite prospered, the poor shed blood, and most shamefully in this case the slaves remained slaves.  Dissenters in this war dubbed Royalists were killed or fled to Canada, a country later peacefully independent from Britain and none the worse for it.

Back to the revolutionary war, let us not forget the French, their navy, their army without which, well … .  Having suffered a reverse against the British in India, the French were thirsty for revenge, and America gave them the ideal opportunity.

Oh yes, India.  It, too, celebrates independence from Britain a little more than a month hence.  However, in the process it managed to shoot itself in the foot and elsewhere severing itself into three countries and a very painful digit called Kashmir that still has not healed.  How did England manage to conquer such a large sub-continent?  Well, in actual fact, it didn’t.

We have heard of the Rajahs, Maharajahs, Nawabs and so forth.  Large sections remained independently run by these rulers under certain restrictions.  This included Hyderabad and its Nizam (ruler) who allied himself with the British in the 18th century Deccan peninsula wars against Mysore, which fought the British and its Indian allies until its ruler died fighting.

The British used skillful political manipulation and Indian soldiers in a land divided by language, custom, religion and even race.  America on the contrary favors force, often brutal force, usually effectively as in the Philippines.  It did not work in Vietnam but Central and Latin America have been another story.  If Cuba bucked the trend, Venezuelan and Ecuador have tried, and their story continues to unfold.

Just the 21st century list curdles the blood.  Afghanistan, its people and its government, had nothing to do with 9/11; so why attack them, when a maverick from Saudi Arabia and Arabs mostly from Saudi Arabia were the perpetrators.  Yes, the leader Osama bin Laden, fostered by the CIA, was based in Afghanistan, but then why not attack his base, instead of making new enemies and getting trapped in the US’s longest war.

Why Iraq?  Why Libya?  And many others including a coup to remove an elected government in Ukraine.  The extremist fundamentals are no longer kept in check by Libya’s secular Gadaffi and are mushrooming in Africa, while China might get the oil, and it looks like Iran has become the big winner in Iraq.  The answer?  Why, of course, another war.  This time with the Saudis against Iran despite the Syria misadventure.  Can reason and foresight prevail as dead bodies pile up and refugees scatter?

So here we are 242 years later … in a land governed by corporate greed and economic malfeasance centered on unsustainable growth; facing rising global temperatures; an earth already in the sixth mass extinction with rapidly declining wild life.

Have you seen many butterflies this year?  I notice the milkweed bush outside in the yard is still awaiting its first monarch.  But I cannot end a Fourth-of-July piece on a sour note.  The robin pair visiting us annually, nesting under the eaves in the crook of a storm drain pipe, has been particularly successful this year, hatching its third brood a few days ago.

Climate Change Could Depress Living Standards in India

MD Staff
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Climate Change Could Depress Living Standards in India

Rising temperatures and changing monsoon rainfall patterns from climate change could cost India 2.8 percent of GDP and depress the living standards of nearly half the country’s population by 2050, a World Bank report says.

According to “South Asia’s Hotspots: The Impact of Temperature and Precipitation Changes on Living Standards”, almost half of South Asia’s population, including India, now lives in the vulnerable areas and will suffer from declining living standards that could be attributed to falling agricultural yields, lower labor productivity or related health impacts. Some of these areas are already less developed, suffer from poor connectivity and are water stressed.

India’s average annual temperatures are expected to rise by 1.00°C to 2°C by 2050 even if preventive measures are taken along the lines of those recommended by the Paris climate change agreement of 2015. If no measures are taken average temperatures in India are predicted to increase by 1.5°C to 3°C.

The work scientifically identifies vulnerable states and districts as “hotspots” using spatial granular climate and household data analysis. The report defines hotspot as a location where changes in average temperature and precipitation will have a negative effect on living standards. These hotspots are not only necessarily higher temperature zones than the surrounding areas, but also reflect the local population’s socio-economic capacity to cope with the climatic changes.

In India today, approximately 600 million people live in locations that could either become moderate or severe hotspots by 2050 under a business-as-usual scenario, the report says. States in the central, northern and north-western parts of India emerge as most vulnerable to changes in average temperature and precipitation.

According to the report’s analysis, by 2050 Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh are predicted to be the top two climate hotspot states and are likely to experience a decline of more than 9 percent in their living standards, followed by Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Maharashtra. Seven out of the top 10 most-affected hotspot districts will belong to the Vidarbha region of Maharashtra.

“These weather changes will result in lower per capita consumption levels that could further increase poverty and inequality in one of the poorest regions of the world, South Asia,” says report author Muthukumara Mani, a Lead Economist in the South Asia Region of the World Bank. “Identifying hotspots will help policymakers in finding specific locations and household types where the resources are needed the most to address the rising risk to living standards.”

The report provides options to prioritize investments and strategies to build local resilience to climate change. To offset the negative economic impact in India, for example, the analysis suggests enhancing educational attainment, reducing water stress, and improving job opportunities in the nonagricultural sectors. The analysis predicts that a 30 percent improvement on these measures could halt the decline in living standards by almost 1 percent from -2.8 percent to -1.9 percent.

Muthukumara Mani adds: “Development is indeed the best adaptation strategy, since it is associated with improved infrastructure, market-oriented reforms, enhanced human capabilities, and a stronger institutional capacity to respond to the increasing threat of climate change and natural disasters.”

Bangladesh: Will this country become Pakistan or Kashmir?

Minar Rashid
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Bangladesh: Will this country become Pakistan or Kashmir?

A political group is spreading the perception that the country will again become Pakistan if Awami League loses control of Bangladesh. They even suggested a label “Banglastan” for this supposed nation which transforms into an improvised Pakistan in the East. But symptomatically it appears to become another Kashmir, or in a classical sense be called Banglashir (Bangladesh + Kashmir).

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina went to Shantiniketan, India to attend the VishvaBharati convocation. On the same occasion, Narendra Modi joined in as a Vishva-Bharati’s Acharya. Various observers believe this particular rendezvous was orchestrated at an opportune moment to help re-establish a relationship between the two leaders. The media hyped it as  viewing a display of the mythical chariots (RathaYatra), but the primary objective was to push a package; “how to win the upcoming election at the end of this year once again”; by hook or crook, whatever it takes.

On this visit, Hasina propagated the fear of Pakistan and that; her’s is the only party that can be trusted to continue the pro-India mantle faithfully that works out magnificently for India and also gives the power she wants.

The “Ananda Bazar Patrika” zealously propagated the Pakistan fear. Even though this magazine was not supposed to be privy to the contents of the secret meeting between Hasina and Modi, and yet they published a piece covering the event. It was headlined “Hasina’s message – the anti-liberation forces are perpetrating the plot to make Bangladesh into Pakistan. If Awami League loses power, India has to live with two houses of Pakistan; one in the West and the other in the East.  So, India should render its necessary support to the present government of Bangladesh.”

Indira Gandhi uttered the above sentence in 1971. She used to say that the head could survive pain on one side. But it is difficult to sleep with pain on both sides. Ananda Bazar highlighted a similar statement by Hasina. As there are no comments on this issue from Hasina’s office, it can be assumed to be a true declaration by Sheikh Hasina.

A “Preeti” press conference was organized at Ganobhaban (Prime Minister’s residence) after her return from that trip. The entire country was watching the congregation of such an elite group of flattering journalists who were asking appealing questions allowing her to continue her long cacophony against her opponents without even semblance to the questions asked. One of them asked; “we understand, an Indian newspaper has indicated that Bangladesh wants a reward for what you have done for India.” To this, the Prime Minister retorted; “I do not want any rewards. Why do I need a reward here? I do not have the habit of asking for favors; rather I am magnanimous in giving more than I receive. Whatever I gave to India; India should remember me forever. ”

Another Sheikh, Sheikh Mohammed Abdullah of Kashmir, also gave away everything without asking for anything in return. He had the habit of being magnanimous in giving more than what he received. People in Kashmir have not forgotten that ever since 1947.

In 1947, Sheikh Mohammed Abdullah welcomed the Indian army into Kashmir. He fully supported the document evidencing alignment with India. In exchange, he was able to act as the Chief Minister of Kashmir till 1953. The man who is most responsible for the suffering of people in Jammu and Kashmir, as well as the people of India and Pakistan; is Sheikh Mohammed Abdullah.

In the lust for power, these Sheikhs became so blind that, the sufferings of the people never crossed their minds. There were mass killings of about 250,000 Muslims and displacement of approximately 1,000,000 persons in Jammu and Kashmir.

In 1953, Sheikh Abdullah realized he made a tremendous mistake by trusting India when his perceived friend Nehru put him in jail. This mistake has caused enormous sufferings for the Kashmiri people for which they are paying till now. They do not see any future in the Indian Federation.

All indications are that Bangladesh is proceeding towards the path of Kashmir. By creating the myth of a Pakistani Genie, Bangladesh is being prepared to become another Kashmir. Here, we can hear the sound of another Sheikh’s footsteps.

Before the arrival of the British, the Hindus and Muslims lived peacefully in these lands what was India.  To effectively administer India, the British devised a “divide and rule” policy between Hindus and the Muslims. It worked out very well for them. They were acting as the judge and the jury while the Hindus and Muslims were fighting. If they did not get tired, the British could have ruled India for another century using the same method.

Their “divide and rule” policy created a new dimension of troubles in India. Even before leaving for good, they embedded a seed of enmity between Hindus and Muslims. One of these seeds was the creation of the Kashmir problem. India and Pakistan; even though very poor, were importing arms and ammunition in record levels heeding poverty of their population. Now, both of these nations are very large purveyors of weapons and are two big nuclear powers.

British misdeeds have created this enormous enmity amongst peoples that were otherwise living peacefully for centuries. Without the Kashmir issue, India and Pakistan could have lived peacefully. But the British had to leave their legacy behind. Instead of using their wealth for the benefit of their people, they indulged into purchasing arms and ammunition. Otherwise, the region could have achieved unprecedented prosperity.

A prolific crusader, Arundhati Roy promoted the cause of Kashmiri independence despite the stereotyped Indians calling her a traitor and wanted her incarcerated. In an interview, Miss Roy said, if the state runs a case against me in the court of law then there should be a case against Nehru (the first Prime Minister of India) even post his death. She mentioned several telegrams and radio addresses by Nehru in which he said; “I declare, the fate of the Kashmiris will be decided by themselves. This promise is not only for the Kashmiris; it is to the entire world. I will never renege from this covenant, and I won’t be able to do it either (3 November 1947)”.

For the sake of Kashmir, Pakistan and India fought three wars; 1947, 1965 and 1999. It is incumbent to the parties in this conflict to address issues and mitigate their differences for the sake of peace and prosperity. The people who talk about the European like peace in the sub-continent, somehow are not getting involved deeply in this pursuit.

The armed forces of India comprise of about 1,300,000 persons which makes it the third largest standing armies of the world. About 700,000 of their armed personnel are deployed in Jammu and Kashmir. With a population of 7,000,000, this is one to ten ratio and makes it the largest per capita army deployment in the world. Naturally, the expenditures related to this engagement is enormous.

If Bangladesh was to be made into a defacto colony, India has to deploy 20 times the soldiers as in Jammu and Kashmir. When India is already over-stressed within Kashmir, where should she be looking into when it comes to Bangladesh?

If India thinks Bangladesh will be similar to the peoples of Sikkim and Bhutan, they would grossly misjudge the situation on the ground. In 1947, 90 percent people of the then East Bengal (now Bangladesh) voted for the formation of Pakistan. Bangladeshis got disenchanted with the misrule of the Pakistani ruling class. Even with the commonality of religion, which was initially thought to be viable, now could not keep the Bangladeshis from remaining in Pakistan. The war of liberation in 1971 was the result of the resolve of the Bangladeshis.

India must realize, the hatred towards Pakistani rulers is now being diverted against Indian defacto rule of Bangladesh by maintaining Awami League as their proxy. More the Awami League gets through with make-believe elections; the more Bangladeshis will be agitated against India. They firmly believe, the Indian government is behind these fake elections.

Anti-India feelings are running high throughout South Asia. Leaving Pakistan alone, one cannot forget Sri Lanka, the Maldives and the people of Bangladesh who are tired of Indian policies. Even the Hindu Nepal is no exception. How long will the peace in Bhutan last is someone’s guess? No one likes anyone to pry into one’s family and nation. People abhor agents of foreign governments. If this hatred magnifies, the scenario in the entire sub-continent may drown into chaos.

Various Indian think tanks are already warning about these scenarios. With China encircling India in all directions, one does not have to look in any other direction.

Every action has an equal and opposite reaction. When India is playing with her smaller neighbors, a counter activity/reaction is developing. Indian neighbors would rather have China as their friend owing to meddling in their internal affairs by India. Not only that India has pain on both sides; that pain will propagate to every organ of the body. Because of wrong Indian policies, all neighbors are transforming into Pakistan.

When the neighboring nations like Bangladesh and India create ties with some political parties and not the people, they focus all their energies on the winning of that political party.  With aiding Awami League only, there is already tremendous anti-Indian feelings within the people of Bangladesh. China would gladly work her way into the void.

Awami League strengthens their power by exhibiting the fear of the Pakistani Genie. The main opposition party BNP must expose that point in a clear voice. The recent trip to Delhi by the BNP leadership must be clearly explained to the public. BNP must proceed with their political agenda in a transparent, concise manner keeping the people with them at every stage.

BNP was in power at a crucial time of Bangladesh when coups and counter-coups were happening every time you look around. BNP is a nationalist party and never converted Bangladesh into Pakistan then, and is not planning for it now. It is transparent propaganda spread by Sheikh Hasina and her party. Creating Sheikh Abdullahs by instilling fear of a ghost of Pakistan, we cannot save Bangladesh from becoming a Kashmir. India must realize this and not put all eggs in one basket.

While BNP needs India, India also requires the cooperation of BNP. If the scenario changes, India may have lost their opportunity to maintain a reliable neighbor. Any shortcut way may bring a considerable loss for India as well as BNP.

India’s general election is forthcoming. In the last election, Awami League government helped the Congress Party. BJP is fully aware of this. Doubt remains whether Modi government will bring the crocodile by digging the canal. Whether Modi has realized this, it is a matter of guess.  “All disciples’ in a temple are not true disciples”; Modi is fully aware of this.

BNP and their partners are deeply rooted in various localities outside the capital city Dhaka. At this time, BNP has only one roadmap in front of them. They should not participate in the upcoming polls without the help of a neutral caretaker government; otherwise, it will be another electoral fiasco like 2014 election. Awami League and Hasina know, they are shouldering a burden of illegitimacy and BNP must make sure this burden should crush an authoritarian regime Hasina is running. With firm resolve and clear direction, this fascist government will crumble.

Citizenship by investment: A lifeline for many small states

Heather Cover-Kus
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Citizenship by investment: A lifeline for many small states

Recent research by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has brought to light the significant macroeconomic impact of citizenship by investment programmes on many small states. In the Caribbean region where five small states offer them, the industry jumped from 0 per cent of regional GDP in 2007 to a substantial 5.1 per cent in 2015. At a country level, the figures, are even more impressive, with the industry contributing 14 per cent of GDP in St Kitts in 2014 and 9.5 per cent in Dominica in 2015-16.

Noting these impressive figures, I think my last blog – which discussed the strengths and weaknesses of citizenship by investment – understated its economic importance to the small states that have these programmes.

The impact and challenges of the citizenship by investment industry deserve an in-depth look.

Simultaneously, the governments tend to use the income of these programmes to address the issues that arise from their vulnerability as a small state.

In Dominica, funds from the programme have been used to aid the recovery from devastating hurricanes and tropical storms. Similarly, in Antigua and Barbuda, the income is being used in the reconstruction of Barbuda, which was badly damaged by hurricane Irma. In Grenada, 40 per cent of the income is put into a contingency fund to clear debts or deal with natural disasters.

However, the income from citizenship by investment programme is volatile. There are upcoming challenges to the industry which need to be handled with care if it is to be sustained. These challenges can be classed into three categories – international, regional and national.

International challenges: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is exploring the potential abuse of citizenship programmes to circumvent the common reporting standard and avoid tax payments. If this issue is not tackled effectively, this may signal the beginning of further international regulation of this industry, possibly blacklists.

Regional challenges: The last five years have seen an increase in the number citizenship by investment programmes offered in the Caribbean, rising from two between 1993-2012 to five between 2013-2015. Following the growing competition, there have been changes to programme structures and decreases in fees, which many fear signal a “race to the bottom” for those in the industry. While the governments had planned to sign an MoU on the margins of the Caribbean Community Heads of Government Meeting last February, which never transpired. Without an agreed set of parameters of the industry, all countries stand to lose out.

National challenges: The citizenship can be a personal and sacred thing, particularly for people without the means to acquire another one or the interest in doing so. For the locals of the countries which offer citizenship programmes, there are fears that programmes are subject to corruption. There have been whispers of diplomatic passports being issued and people making money under the table. If the industry is to succeed, it needs to be properly managed with transparency and integrity. From a social perspective, governments need to consider how to avoid creating enclaves of the super wealthy and causing resentment among the locals.

I recently gave a presentation at the Global Investment Immigration Summit and highlighted these critical challenges. I noted the Commonwealth’s continued support for small states in finding innovative ways to obtain development funds and its assistance to help them keep this revenue source open and sustainable. Given the importance of this economic lifeline for many small states, they were receptive to the offer of support.

Perhaps, there is a role for the Commonwealth in helping the industry to define parameters and standards. But is that enough for small states? Beyond setting the parameters to achieve true sustainable benefits of these programmes, countries should think carefully about how the revenue can create jobs and boost economic growth.

For me, this economic lifeline should not be held forever, but rather, should be used to help countries get back on a sustainable path.

Source: Commonwealth

China’s ‘Debt Trap’ for Pakistan: Dilutes FATF Ruling

Gen. Shashi Asthana
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China’s ‘Debt Trap’ for Pakistan: Dilutes FATF Ruling

Under normal circumstances, a one billion dollar loan between two sovereign countries would have gone unnoticed by global community, but what makes China’s one billion dollar lending to Pakistan so special is the timing of this loan and the strategic intention behind it. The economics of this loan to justify the need to buffer Pakistan’s foreign currency reserves, which nosedived to $9.66bn last week from $16.4bn in May 2017, taking China’s lending to Pakistan to over $5bn in this fiscal year, has been well covered by all the segments of media in India and abroad. The messaging and the strategy behind this bailout need deeper analysis.

Timing and Messaging

The timing of the loan, which raises eyebrows, is that it comes immediately after Pakistan being officially included in the grey list of Financial Action Task Force (FATF). FATF is a global body, (of which China is also a member), aims to combat money laundering and terror financing, while taking the decision was convinced that Pakistan has failed to act against terror financing on its soil. China’s tried its best to help its ‘All weather friend’ Pakistan by responses to indicate that they are doing their best to fight terrorism and have made enormous sacrifices towards that. This aid package indicates China’s resolve to signal the global community, that it intends to keep Pakistan economically afloat irrespective of FATF ruling. China is apprehensive that if Pakistan sinks economically (if it does not get IMF aid package which it will bid for after elections), it may well happen that China may not find enough investors for CPEC, and may be its own companies may find it difficult to sustain the project. With this gesture China has tried to raise the confidence level of its investors in CPEC/BRI, despite the risk of criticism of diluting FATF, despite knowing that Pakistan cannot pay the interest of its loan and needs further loan to repay its interests with sinking economy.

Why Pakistan is strategically lucrative to find donor for bail out?      

Pakistan’s geographic location is strategically so important that US, as well as China will like to have influence over it. For US, Pakistan is relevant to keep its competitors under check and have bases to launch operations in Afghanistan, especially against al-Qaeda and Haqqani network. As Pakistan provided the bases and manpower to enable US to fight in Afghanistan against Taliban giving shelter to both, it extracted billions of dollars from them as bailout packages, besides military hardware on the excuse to ward of Indian threat to concentrate on fighting on Afghanistan borders to serve US interest. Now US is acting tough on them, post “New South Asia Policy of Trump Administration”, blocking the aid to them, as it is convinced that Pakistan did not do enough to target al-Qaeda and Haqqani network and continues to help them. US is however, in no mood to give a free run to China to cede this strategic space so easily in this region, hence the strategic competition in this region is not yet over.

China needs warm water access for its Western region and smooth flow of energy and trade through this region besides some of the minerals in Pakistan. CPEC and the related infrastructure also give China an opportunity to utilize its overcapacities in Pakistan. This will end up in insurmountable loan for Pakistan, beyond its paying capacity, which may result in Chinese land grab as well as resource grab and some compromise to sovereignty of Pakistan by “Debt/Financial Offensive” by China, which has been very successful in some countries like Myanmar, Maldives, Sri Lanka and others. China also has a strategic interest to keep US out of this region. China therefore has enough strategic reasons to keep Pakistan economically afloat for its own strategic interests, hence it has gladly taken over this role from US.

Pakistan transition to Chinese colony/Terroristan

From global prism and Indian perspective the financial crisis of Pakistan is dangerous. If China continues to be determined to bail it out every time, Pakistan’s status will be reduced to a colony of China, with considerable PLA’s presence in context of protecting CPEC and other investments. Presently Pakistan is a sham democracy with Pakistan Army giving an impression of binding and protecting the country by holding all levers of power. If Pakistan collapses, then, with the number of terrorist groups being nurtured, there is a danger of it coming under Jihadi rule or becoming another Islamic caliphate, which the world community has to deal with, which can be far more dangerous with nuclear assets including tactical nukes present there. With Pakistani Army’s and ISI honeymoon with terrorists, including getting them a backdoor entry into politics through Hafiz Saeed’s Milli Muslim League fighting elections, the radicalization of Pakistani Army is reasonably evident. It is time for the global community including China to revisit their support to Pakistan, and prevent it from being diverted to self destroying Terroristan.

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