Bloody attacks, seizing towns, declaring caliphates, kidnapping children and women, bombing churches and mosques, abuses against civilians, assassinating politicians and leaders are just some of the problems Nigeria is facing. War against terror in estimated 173 million population state is far from finished.
The security situation is worsening in the North from the Boko Haram insurgency. Boko Haram group is in Nigeria active for many years now, and based on United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimation responsible for 20.000 people killed so far, and recording to Human Rights Watch only this year at least 1.000 civilians. The number of internal displaced persons (IDPs) is also increasing. As of February 2015 Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) reported that 1.235,300 people were forced to flee their homes.
The Multinational Joint Task Force (MJTF) with newly task to fight the branch of Al Qaida was established in 1998 for maintenance of security in the border area and was expanded to counterterrorism operations. Military tasks are protecting civilians from further attacks, stopping abductions and rescuing those held captive. African Union, which recently gave MJTF a green light, asked the United Nations Security Council on January 29 to adopt the resolution authorizing the military operations, achieving coordination, conducting border patrols, finding abducted persons, stopping the flow of arms, reintegrating insurgents into society and bring those responsible for crimes to justice. Human Rights Watch suggests that situation in northeastern Nigeria can be resolved with the help of newly elected government, which needs to provide medical treatment, counselling and the ability to educate former captives. Boko Haram insurgency is also spilling across Nigeria’s border into Cameroon, Chad and Niger which together with Nigeria and Benin are part of MJTS. In a way MJTS is only regional attempt to contain the threat. Nigeria is reluctant for regional intervention on its territory, so neighboring countries within MNJTF framework will work on securing the borders and preventing Boko Haram insurgency from further spilling, while Nigeria itself will be military and otherwise active on its national territory. Regional force will be responsible for 10 to 15% of the entire area where Boko Haram operates, so Nigeria will need to do most of the job. The reasons can also be seen in history of border disputes with the neighbors and traditional status of Nigeria as an important regional actor in securing peace and stability in West Africa.
Doomsday predictions based on previous elections for the aftermath of presidential elections in April luckily did not happen. In pre-election period based on Fund for Peace reporting saw 264 instances of insecurity and 2.215 fatalities. By comparison of pre-election period in 2011 the numbers of fatalities have in this year increased dramatically and immediate post-election violence in 2011 resulted in an additional 800 people killed. Results of presidential elections were peaceful accepted mainly because Goodluck Jonathan concede defeat and congratulated Muhammadu Buhari on his win. Africa’s biggest oil producer did not face a fresh wave of violence, even though for the first time in history an opposition candidate won elections. On 11th April country voted again, this time in gubernatorial elections. State governors are one of the most important politicians, since they are managing big budgets, have influence over federal appointments and the choice of who runs for president. Political system in Nigeria is also confronted with high corruption level. From 175 countries measured by Transparency International Nigeria was ranked 136, from which we can see that corruption is widespread.
The country faces divisions along ethnic and religious lines, communal violence and impunity for crimes by Nigerian security forces. The latest is the most worrying since the army in the country had an important role in Nigeria’s turbulent history. Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, The Global Centre for Responsibility to Protect, Human Rights Agenda Network and other international and national organizations have reported on abuses in Nigerian army. Nigerian security forces have in response to Boko Haram attacks used excessive force. A lot of people were detained in inhumane conditions. Physical abuse, burned civilian homes, violations of human right and humanitarian law, no credible investigations of past crimes, no accountability for crimes, executions, arbitrarily arresting, beating on people, stealing money while searching homes, torture and detainment in inhuman conditions are just some mentions problems that need to be addressed that Nigerian population won’t be forever caught between the army and Islamic violence.
Inter-communal violence, political unrest, and corruption demonstrate that Boko Haram attacks are not the only issue facing the country. A lot of inter-communal unrest has been seen through the years. The causes were, among others, also ethnic or religious identity and resulted in a great number of IDPs, deaths and violence. In Africa’s largest economy, people in the north of the country are predominantly Muslim religion and Christian in the south. 10% of the population following indigenous sects and close to 350 ethnic groups speak 250 languages. Another problem beside diversity in religion and ethnicity facing Nigeria is poverty. According to UN statistics about 70% of Nigerians live below the poverty line and survive on less than a dollar a day. The division along economic lines is seen, since poverty is more widespread in the north and less in the south and in the Niger delta. The divisions and inequalities, corruption, vulnerable people, the state’s inability to protect, with battles against insurgent groups have contributed to the current security crisis in the country. Potential problems can be seen in the country’s economy and its reliance on oil. 70% of the country’s government revenues are derived from the oil and gas business. That makes the country vulnerable in a case of oil price drops.
The crisis in Nigeria has rapidly become a complex global, regional and national issue. A lot of concerns and actions have come through different international actors and organizations about the situation in the country. On international level International Criminal Court (ICC) indicted Boko Haram and reason to believe that crimes against humanity have been committed. The Court is still in its preliminary stages but has gained the cooperation of Nigerian government. Furthermore, what is also important is that the Court also announced thatany crimes committed by Nigerian army will fall under its derestriction. United Nations (UN) have also condemned the violence seen in Nigeria. The UN and Security Council have expressed deep concerns of Boko Haram activities that jeopardize regional and national peace and security.
There are no easy answers for ending the crisis in Nigeria. Some things that need to change are Nigeria’s cooperation with even greater extend with regional actors and acceptances of assistance from its neighbors. Security must be established and insurgency from Boko Haram and other groups must be stopped. In the short term military conflicts must stop and negotiations with representatives of different militant groups must start. Different aspect of crisis must be addressed in order to protect the population. Furthermore, crimes and atrocities must be punished and answered regardless of the side that committed them. Beside successful prosecutions corruption must be reduced. There has been seen some improvements at the federal level with the establishment of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission and with it impunity has begun to change. A lot still needs to be done at local government level, which has become the most corrupt in the federal system. The next thing is to improve use of oil revenues that will improve development indicators and last but not least a lot of political will and competent leaders.