The space program that gave the United States much-deserved global recognition is looking very different today. Somewhat embarrassingly, the United States relies on the Atlas V rocket, powered by a Russian rocket engine, to transport crucial space satellite technology.
It is concerning to the US to heavily depend on Russia, at the moment still under sanctions for interfering in Ukrainian unrest. Thus it seems imperative that this situation needs to change for the long-term benefit of the American space program. In order to be ready for future conflicts, which may include space, US armed forces need to rely on space technology such as GPS, communication satellites, and intelligence gathering equipment.
The United States must maintain uninterrupted and independent access to space due to 21st century national security interests. By heavily depending on Russia, Washington is supporting the defense industry of a state that carries, to put it mildly, deep skepticism toward American power. It is unwise policy to depend on Russia for vital space missions and even worse policy when this dependence might help Russia takes steps against US national security interests. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin has described American fees for the space transport as “free money” that is invested directly into Moscow’s missile development program. NASA spokesman Mr. Allard Beutel stated recently that his agency still has a transport contract with Russia until June 2020.
This idea of American space dependence on Russia is receiving increasing criticism in Washington. Recently Senator John McCain said: “today Russia holds many of our most precious national security satellites at risk before they ever get off the ground.” His concerns were not unfounded because in 2014 Rogozin, in light of impending sanctions, openly threatened to prohibit the export of Russian rockets that facilitate deployment of the American satellite program. If that happened the United States would have no means of deploying its essential satellite technology into space. More disconcertingly, the new federal budget proposed to cut NASA’s Fiscal Year 2017 funds even further. In perspective, NASA’s budget is dangerously small when compared to regular expenditures. Former NASA administrator Mike Griffin stated that Americans spend more annually on pizza (27 billion USD) than on space. Due to such changes NASA’s mission today is much weaker than several decades ago. The United States, first to send men to the moon in 1969, now struggles in the 21st century to reach beyond low-earth orbit without expensive Russian assistance. How the mighty have fallen indeed.
While proposed budget cuts to NASA have been causing bitter debates in Congress, the reality is that any good change will take years before empirical results become visible. In 2011, policymakers decided to eliminate NASA’s Constellation program: $9 billion dollars of diligent labor to construct a new Orion spacecraft and Aries rocket canceled. Some of the main objectives of the program were completion of a new International Space Station and a return to the Moon by 2020, with subsequent manned trip to Mars. The Constellation program was meant to reinvigorate American space supremacy. No other nation, including Russia, China, India, and Japan, was meant to be able to successfully compete or outmaneuver such an advanced program. Now those countries do not even need to bother.
In 2015, Russia deployed 17 unmanned satellites into orbit, further expanding its capacity for remote sensing systems and intelligence collection. In addition, both Russia and China are developing provocative new space technologies such as anti-satellite weapons. That would allow Russia and China to deny access to any adversary during conflict. The intense reliance of modern warfare on satellite access is impossible to underestimate. The possibility of having Russia and China interrupting and disabling vital communications and navigation space equipment should therefore be very concerning to the United States. The threat is so serious that US policymakers have authorized an additional $5 billion dollars to be used on defensive and offensive capabilities to overcome deficiencies in the American military space program.
Russia is developing its own array of military equipment that could track, approach, inspect, and possibly sabotage foreign satellites in orbit. While China has publicly announced its space endeavors are nothing more than peaceful science experiments, Russian officials have remained silent. Ironically, both Russia and China have been promoting for years a treaty on the prevention of the placement of weapons in outer space and the threat or use of force against outer space objects. Interestingly, Washington opposes this treaty, which was submitted to the United Nations by Russia and China. The reason for opposition is basically the American perception that Russia and China are both disingenuous. In other words, the US feels both Moscow and Beijing will work on space militarization while letting the treaty automatically counter any potential rival entrants. Thus, the fear is that Russia and China want to use the treaty only to curb a resurgence of American space capabilities. Regardless of whether or not these suspicions are true, the problem with any space treaty will be the difficulty in achieving real compliance and oversight verification.
China’s Vice Foreign Minister Cheng Guoping has stated on several occasions that Beijing intends to increase its cooperation with Russia on several space projects. In the meantime, Russia is planning to build its own space station by the year 2024. The Chinese government is also planning to construct its own orbiting space station by the year 2020. In 1998, when the International Space Station launched, it was the most expensive project ever built at approximately $150 billion. The United States generously gave more than $100 billion toward its construction. Today, only Russian rockets equipped with a Russian docking system can bring necessary ISS supplies. Realistically, the United States is approaching a critical moment when space dependency on Russia will have to end. Perhaps the arrival of successful private companies such as Space X will fill the void left by diminished NASA support. By allowing private industry to compete and provide necessary services, the need for Russia might diminish.
Frankly, American policymakers have been too slow to act on minimizing the negative consequences of their budget cuts in crucial space areas. Allowing Russia or China to militarize space while also making America addicted to Russian space services can only lead to vulnerability in critical military areas. Placing Russia or China in the leadership position for space would cause great concern among many nations and even negatively impact global economic security. Many civilian and scientific organizations have their satellites in low-Earth orbit. It is fair to assume that as of today most of them prefer a leading American presence over Russian or Chinese. But that preference right now is not matched by any empirical reality.
What might help even the playing field is corruption and mismanagement: it was reported that over $1 billion cannot be accounted for in the Russian space program. Even at its best, the Russian space program budget is only slightly bigger than NASA’s smallest budget. The United States still has the leading technology assets. They are simply being hindered by poor policy choices. Both Russia and China depend on media propaganda to maintain their image of power and strength in space. The United States space program does not need more media coverage but better policy to move forward. But so far, that policy wisdom has yet to emerge. As a consequence, the future of space will remain crowded, confused, and potentially conflict-ridden.
