The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday that global oil and gas demand could continue growing until 2050 a reversal from its earlier projections of an imminent peak. This shift suggests that the world is unlikely to meet its climate targets, even as pressure mounts for a faster energy transition.
The IEA’s new World Energy Outlook moves away from its recent emphasis on clean energy pathways and instead focuses on “current policies,” reflecting existing government measures rather than aspirational climate goals.
Why It Matters
The findings represent a major departure from the IEA’s earlier message that oil demand would peak this decade. Under current policies, oil demand is now projected to reach 113 million barrels per day by 2050 about 13% higher than 2024 levels. This outlook signals a slower-than-expected transition to renewable energy, increasing the risk of surpassing global warming thresholds.
Oil demand: Expected to rise steadily until mid-century under existing policies.
Energy demand: Projected to grow 15% by 2035.
LNG expansion: Global liquefied natural gas capacity will jump 50% by 2030, driven by energy-hungry data centres and AI technologies.
Investment trends: Data centre spending could surpass annual oil supply investments in 2025.
The IEA dropped its “pledges scenario” this year, saying too few countries submitted updated climate commitments for 2031–2035 to create a meaningful picture.
Political Context
The IEA’s shift also reflects political dynamics in the United States. Under President Donald Trump, the U.S. the agency’s largest funder urged the IEA to emphasize fossil fuel expansion. In contrast, the Biden administration backed its earlier focus on clean energy and net-zero goals. Trump’s Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, dismissed previous IEA projections of an oil demand peak as “nonsensical.”
Climate Impact
Even in the most optimistic policy cases, the IEA warns global temperatures will exceed the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. Only the “net zero scenario” which assumes large-scale carbon removal technologies shows a decline in temperatures after mid-century.
What’s Next
The IEA’s report signals a global energy path increasingly driven by short-term national priorities rather than coordinated climate action. With oil, gas, and LNG demand still rising, the gap between current policy trajectories and climate pledges is widening leaving the world’s 2050 net-zero ambitions in doubt.
With information from Reuters.
