Reporting form the Burma border
The rebels continue to find success due to their resolve and unity across ethnic lines. However, victory remains elusive as the Burmese army maintains air and artillery superiority, supported by Russia and China. Some foreign governments have expressed their support for the National Unity Government in exile, which is aligned with the rebels, but none have provided them with food, money, or weapons. As a result, the war grinds on, with the Burmese army targeting civilians while the people of Burma hope to establish a federal democracy.
During the 70-year history of the war in Burma, the fighting has followed a cyclical pattern of smoldering, flaring up, dying down, intensifying, and then leveling off repeatedly. However, since the coup in 2021, the war has taken a different turn, with fighting steadily escalating. Last October, the intensity increased significantly when several ethnic armed organizations (EAO) formed an alliance and launched coordinated strikes on government positions. Since then, the conflict has become so intense that soldiers on the ground are calling it the most severe fighting since World War II.
The rebels continue to find success, capturing land and overrunning government positions, and now hold about 70% of the country’s territory. However, most of the cities and large towns remain under government control, leading to a bit of a standoff. The rebels are poorly equipped, carrying meager gear, provisions, and makeshift weapons on their backs, while the Burmese army is resupplied by air. Additionally, the Burmese army has Russian and Chinese jet fighters and helicopters, along with modern long-range artillery and mortars. Reports from the front confirm that most of the casualties are resulting from air strikes and long-range artillery and mortar fire.
David Eubanks, head of Free Burma Rangers, a faith-based frontline aid organization, confirms information reported by human rights groups and others on the front lines: the Burmese army is directly targeting civilians with airstrikes, artillery, and mortar barrages. “The Burmese army is coming with a speed and force we have never seen—aircraft, helicopters, artillery, drones—slaughtering people. Systematic targeting of churches, monasteries, hospitals, clinics, schools, and civilians happens every day. Every day we receive reports from our teams or witness this with our own eyes.”
While the Burmese army has weapons, aircraft, fuel, and cash from Russia and China, the resistance has very little outside support. Foreign governments are not aiding the EAOs, who largely rely on the diaspora community overseas. This support allows them to buy cheap, often non-functioning, weapons on the black market. Transporting weapons through Thailand or China is illegal, complicating the rebels’ acquisition of arms. Meanwhile, the Burmese military receives regular shipments by air, mostly from Russia and China. David Eubanks also reported seeing the Burmese army using North Korean munitions and many drones, some possibly from Iran. This dual standard of legality puts the rebels at an even greater disadvantage. The weapons they are forced to buy are low-quality, very expensive, and many are confiscated by transit countries’ authorities before they even reach Burma, such as the drone jammers seized by Thai authorities in March.
The Burma war has always been fought along ethnic lines. The military and government are generally controlled by the largest ethnic group, the Bamar (or Burman), although even the majority of the Bamar have opposed the government but were less inclined to join combat against it until the 2021 coup. The 135 ethnic minorities have suffered at the hands of the government and, over decades, formed ethnic militias to fight against it. What has changed since the coup, however, is that many Bamar have either formed militias to fight the government, known as People’s Defense Forces (PDF), or have joined the ethnic armed organizations.
Several of the ethnic minorities have their own states: Kachin State, named after the Kachin people; Kayah State, named after the Kayah (Karenni) people; Kayin State, named after the Kayin (Karen) people; Chin State, named after the Chin people; Mon State, named after the Mon people; Rakhine State, named after the Rakhine (Arakanese) people; and Shan State, named after the Shan people. In the past, most of these groups were fighting separate battles for independence. Since the coup, however, they have been cooperating with one another, combining forces and joined by Bamar who have finally given up hope of changing the country through parliamentary procedures. While the degree of autonomy the various ethnic factions want to have after the war may vary, most have agreed to cooperate with, if not align themselves under, the National Unity Government (NUG). The NUG proposes a federal democratic system where the ethnic states would be able to preserve much of their autonomy and maintain their rights.
The National Unity Government (NUG) of Myanmar is a government in exile formed by opponents of the military junta that seized power in the February 2021 coup. It includes elected members of parliament from the National League for Democracy (NLD), Aung San Suu Kyi’s party, which won the 2020 general election. What distinguishes the NUG from previous iterations of the National League for Democracy is its inclusion of representatives from various ethnic minority groups and other pro-democracy organizations. This broader representation has made it easier for the NUG to garner support among ethnic groups.
This newfound unity has been a key factor in the rebels winning many battles. However, despite numerous foreign countries, including the US, expressing their support for the NUG, none are sending weapons. Additionally, most international aid goes to the Myanmar government, not the EAOs. As expected, the Myanmar army would never provide aid to the rebels, leading to immense suffering for civilians and struggles for the soldiers.
