Yesterday, Mexico held pivotal elections that resulted in Claudia Sheinbaum becoming the country’s first female president. Voters also elected numerous state governors, mayors, and members of Congress, solidifying the dominance of the ruling MORENA party across multiple levels of government. This sweeping victory not only represents a significant political shift but also sets the stage for potential constitutional reforms and policy continuations of outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s populist agenda. As Sheinbaum prepares to take office, the implications of these elections extend far beyond gender milestones, touching on economic stability, investor confidence, and the health of Mexico’s democratic institutions.
Claudia Sheinbaum’s decisive victory in Mexico’s presidential election marks a historic milestone, ushering in the country’s first female presidency and signalling a continuation of the populist legacy of outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO). As Sheinbaum prepares to take office, the overwhelming support for the ruling MORENA party raises both hopes and concerns about Mexico’s future political and economic landscape.
The Legacy of AMLO
Sheinbaum’s ascent to the presidency is deeply intertwined with AMLO’s political influence. MORENA ‘s rapid rise from a nascent movement to the dominant political force in Mexico is largely credited to AMLO’s leadership, populist style and popularity. The party’s stronghold, now encompassing the presidency, numerous state governments, and a majority in both houses of Congress, reflects a significant shift in Mexico’s political dynamics, displacing the historically powerful Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).
Despite the celebratory tone of Sheinbaum’s victory, financial markets have reacted with apprehension. The Mexican peso plummeted by as much as 4%, and Mexican assets experienced significant declines. Investors are wary of potential increased state control and constitutional changes that could emerge from MORENA ‘s supermajority in Congress. The prospect of heightened government intervention in the economy and the potential erosion of institutional checks and balances have heightened market jitters.
It is anticipated that Sheinbaum will bring nothing new to the table, but a continuation of AMLO’s populist policies, emphasising social programmes and potentially market-unfriendly reforms. In some initial statements, Sheinbaum has sought to calm market fears, emphasising her commitment to fiscal responsibility, the autonomy of the central bank, and boosting private investment. However, her administration faces significant fiscal challenges, including a substantial budget deficit and the need to fund expanded social programmes without major tax reforms, and low foreign investment. Improving tax collection efficiency and exploring new revenue streams will be crucial for maintaining financial stability while addressing social needs.
The broader economic landscape also presents challenges. The potential for MORENA to push through constitutional changes has led to concerns about economic stability and investor confidence. The market’s cautious stance reflects a wait-and-see approach, anticipating concrete policy directions and the extent of AMLO’s influence in Sheinbaum’s administration. Sheinbaum must balance the need for fiscal responsibility with the continuation of popular social programmes. Her administration aims to capitalise on nearshoring opportunities and enhance Mexico’s trade relationship with the United States under the USMCA trade deal. However, the challenge lies in achieving economic growth while addressing budgetary constraints and market apprehensions.
MORENA ‘s dominance raises questions about its future without AMLO at the helm. The party’s internal cohesion and ability to navigate internal dynamics will be tested, particularly during the presidency of Sheinbaum. AMLO’s continued influence, even after leaving office, will be crucial for maintaining MORENA ‘s unity and dominance.
While Claudia Sheinbaum’s election as Mexico’s first female president is a historic milestone symbolising progress in gender equality, her rise does not necessarily translate into a broader advance for women’s representation in politics. Despite breaking the highest glass ceiling, Sheinbaum’s policies and political approach largely mirror those of her predecessor, AMLO. This continuity suggests that her leadership might not bring significant changes to the gender dynamics within Mexico’s political landscape. Her administration’s success will largely depend on whether she can address systemic issues affecting women’s rights and representation or if her presidency will be seen as a symbolic victory with limited substantive impact on advancing gender equality in the broader political sphere.
Claudia Sheinbaum’s tenure as Mayor of Mexico City and her political alignment with outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) have raised significant concerns regarding her stance on gender-based violence. Despite the alarming rise in femicides and violence against women across Mexico, Sheinbaum has not been notably critical of these issues, the worsening of security conditions for women during AMLO’s presidency, or of AMLO’s policies, such as the closure of day-care centres and shelters for women suffering from domestic violence, among other policies which disproportionately affected women. This lack of critique and action is worrying, given the widespread demand for stronger protections and support for women. Her administration in Mexico City saw only minimal improvements in combating violence against women, leaving many to question her commitment and effectiveness in addressing these urgent problems.
As Sheinbaum steps into the presidency, her approach to these critical issues will be closely scrutinised. The expectation is that she will take more decisive and effective actions to protect women’s rights and safety across the country. Advocates hope that she will implement comprehensive policies to address the systemic issues contributing to gender-based violence, including improved law enforcement responses, support services for survivors, and public awareness campaigns, however, none of this was part of her campaign platform.
One of the most significant challenges facing Claudia Sheinbaum as she steps into the presidency is the pervasive violence that has plagued Mexico. During Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (AMLO) tenure, security conditions deteriorated, with the homicide rate remaining alarmingly high. The increasing power and influence of drug cartels have compounded these issues, often infiltrating local governments and exerting control over regions through fear and violence. Sheinbaum will need to address these security concerns urgently, as public safety remains a top priority for many Mexicans. Her administration’s ability to implement effective law enforcement strategies and restore trust in public institutions will be crucial in curbing the violence that has become endemic in the country.
The role of drug cartels in elections has become increasingly prominent, further complicating the security landscape. Reports of cartels intimidating or even assassinating political candidates and officials have become distressingly common. During the recent elections, there were numerous incidents where criminal organisations attempted to influence the outcome, highlighting the extent of their reach. This infiltration not only undermines the democratic process but also perpetuates a cycle of corruption and impunity. Two adjectives come to mind when thinking of the worsening situation in Mexico: narco-state and failed state.
A narco-state is a term used to describe a country where drug cartels or criminal organisations have significant influence over the government, economy, and society. In a narco-state, drug trafficking and related activities are so pervasive that they undermine the legitimate institutions of the state, leading to corruption, violence, and instability. Mexico faces the danger of becoming a narco-state due to the powerful influence of drug cartels within the country. These cartels often operate with impunity, controlling vast territories, engaging in illicit activities, and corrupting government officials and law enforcement agencies. This pervasive influence threatens Mexico’s democratic institutions and the rule of law, making it increasingly difficult for the government to maintain control over its territory and enforce its laws.
A failed state, on the other hand, is a country where the government is unable to provide basic services and security for its citizens, leading to widespread lawlessness, violence, and social unrest. While Mexico is not yet considered a failed state, it faces significant challenges that could lead it in that direction. The escalating violence, particularly related to drug cartels, has strained the country’s security forces and institutions. Additionally, widespread corruption, weak governance, and economic inequality have eroded public trust in the government and hindered its ability to effectively address these challenges. If Mexico does not take decisive action to address these issues, it risks descending into a state of failed governance, with dire consequences for its citizens and the region.
Sheinbaum’s presidency will be tested by her ability to combat these powerful criminal networks, ensuring that electoral integrity is upheld and that the government remains free from cartel influence, while, at the same time, ensuring the state recovers the ability to provide basic services such as security in several states of the country. Addressing these issues head-on will be essential for restoring order and securing a safer future for Mexico.
The Risks of Hegemonic Party Dominance
While MORENA ‘s swift rise to power showcases its ability to break traditional political barriers, it also poses significant risks to Mexico’s democracy. The consolidation of power within a single party can lead to a hegemonic system where checks and balances are weakened, and democratic institutions are undermined. This concentration of power can stifle political pluralism, marginalising opposition parties and diminishing the robustness of democratic debate.
MORENA ‘s potential to become a hegemonic party raises concerns about the erosion of democratic principles. A dominant party system can lead to decreased accountability, as the ruling party may feel emboldened to pursue policies without sufficient scrutiny or opposition. This scenario risks creating an environment where dissent is suppressed, and political discourse is homogenised, ultimately weakening the democratic fabric of the nation.
MORENA is increasingly being likened to the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) due to its rapid consolidation of power and dominance across Mexico’s political landscape. The party swiftly rose from a nascent movement to the preeminent political force in the country, much like the PRI did in the 20th century. MORENA now holds the presidency, numerous state governments, and a majority in both houses of Congress, echoing the PRI’s historical control. This concentration of power has raised concerns about the potential erosion of democratic checks and balances, reminiscent of the PRI’s decades-long hegemony that often stifled political pluralism and dissent. As MORENA continues to expand its influence, the parallels with the PRI highlight the risks of a single party dominating the political arena, potentially undermining the robustness of Mexico’s democracy.
Further entrenching Morena’s rule is the practice of ‘chapulineo’, where legislators switch parties for personal or political gain, often due to disagreements with party leaders or to seek candidacies with different parties. This practice, coupled with nepotism and the strategic lending of legislators to secure legislative goals, mirrors the PRI’s tactics to maintain control. Although proposals have been made to restrict ‘chapulineo’, such as prohibiting legislators from changing parliamentary groups close to leadership elections, no laws currently regulate this in Mexico’s Congress. This fluidity undermines party accountability and contributes to MORENA’s growing dominance, evoking concerns about the erosion of Mexico’s democratic institutions and the robustness of its political pluralism.
The Perils of a Qualified Majority in a Democracy
The potential for the ruling MORENA party to attain a qualified majority in both houses of Congress raises concerns about the erosion of democratic checks and balances. With such overwhelming control, there’s a risk of stifling dissenting voices and marginalising opposition parties, undermining the pluralistic foundation of democracy. A dominant party with a supermajority can push through significant constitutional reforms without the need for consensus or compromise, potentially leading to the concentration of power in the hands of a few. This scenario not only weakens the role of the opposition but also diminishes the accountability of the ruling party, fostering an environment ripe for authoritarian tendencies. Thus, the prospect of MORENA securing a qualified majority poses a significant challenge to Mexico’s democratic institutions and the principles of representative governance.
It is dangerous for MORENA to hold a majority in the Congress due to the potential for advancing populist agendas that could undermine democratic institutions. MORENA’s majority has already led to controversial reforms, such as the elimination of autonomous institutions, changes to the pension system, and the abolition of fideicomisos (trust funds). These reforms have sparked criticism from opposition parties and civil society, who argue that they concentrate too much power in the hands of the government and undermine the independence of key institutions. The concern is that without strong opposition to challenge and balance Morena’s power, there is a risk of authoritarianism and erosion of democratic norms in Mexico.
Claudia Sheinbaum’s election as Mexico’s first female president represents a significant political shift. Electing a woman as president does not automatically translate into advancements for women’s rights or improvements in gender politics. The political ideology and policies of the female leader are crucial factors that determine her impact on gender issues. For instance, leaders like Giorgia Meloni in Italy, despite being a woman, have not prioritised or advocated strongly for women’s rights in their political agendas. Their conservative and nationalist policies often overlook or undermine gender equality initiatives, illustrating that the mere presence of a woman in a high political office is not a guarantee of progress for women’s issues.
It is important to recognise that female politicians can have diverse political views and priorities, which may not always align with advancing gender equality. Voters and advocates must critically assess the policies and actions of female leaders, rather than assuming their leadership will inherently benefit women’s rights. This careful scrutiny ensures that the election of women in politics is genuinely linked to the betterment of women’s opportunities and the implementation of progressive gender policies. Without this critical evaluation, there is a risk of complacency, where the symbolic victory of electing a woman overshadows the substantive work needed to achieve real gender equality.
Claudia Sheinbaum’s alignment with the populist agenda of AMLO raises questions about her approach to women’s rights and gender politics. While Sheinbaum’s election as Mexico’s first female president is a significant milestone for gender equality, her continuation of AMLO’s policies may not necessarily translate into substantial advancements for women. Like AMLO, Sheinbaum’s focus on populist initiatives may overshadow the need for comprehensive gender equality reforms. If Sheinbaum prioritises the same policies and approaches as AMLO, such as economic redistribution and social welfare programmes, without addressing specific gender issues, there is a risk that her presidency may not significantly improve women’s rights or opportunities in Mexico.
It is crucial for Sheinbaum to distinguish herself from AMLO’s approach to gender politics and demonstrate a clear commitment to advancing women’s rights. This includes implementing policies that specifically target gender inequalities, such as improving access to healthcare, education, and employment opportunities for women, as well as public policy that solves the systematic violence against women in Mexico. However, her administration faces a delicate balancing act in navigating fiscal challenges, market concerns, and the potential for significant policy shifts, which means women’s rights and endemic violence might not be at the top of her presidential agenda. Moreover, the risks associated with MORENA’s dominance underscore the importance of preserving democratic integrity and ensuring robust political competition. As Mexico stands at this economic and political crossroads, Sheinbaum’s leadership and policy decisions will be pivotal in shaping the country’s future, determining whether it can achieve economic stability and growth while honouring its commitment to social progress and democratic principles.
Sheinbaum’s challenge will be to balance the populist agenda that has garnered her support with the need for substantive gender equality, security and welfare reforms. Only by actively prioritising and advocating for women’s rights can Sheinbaum ensure that her presidency contributes to meaningful advancements in gender equality in Mexico.
