The South China Sea Conundrum: Is AI a Boon or a Bane?

In the Asia-Pacific region, the South China Sea is the linchpin of natural resources, energy reserves and extensive trade routes, making it a center of attention for the key players in this maritime domain.

“The South China Sea is not only a hotbed of global geopolitics but also serves as a technological battlefield in the international realm.”

 In the Asia-Pacific region, the South China Sea is the linchpin of natural resources, energy reserves and extensive trade routes, making it a center of attention for the key players in this maritime domain. The rise of artificial intelligence technologies adds a new dimension to the strategic landscape of the South China Sea. With the advancement of AI and its integration in the dynamics of the South China sea, a critical question arises whether it is a boon or a bane for the key actors in this region.

    With the application of artificial intelligence, the system of surveillance and security in the South China Sea has improved to a great extent. The deployment of Zhu Hai Yun, an autonomous drone carrier by China in the region sets an example of how AI can aid in intelligence gathering and improve situational awareness. The drone carrier has the capability to launch several unmanned vehicles. These unmanned systems provide unhindered, real-time data on vessel movements and operations, considerably enhancing the maritime security. AI driven technologies have also proved to be advantageous in monitoring the illegal fishing activities. As per Global Fishing Watch, AI algorithms examining satellite data helped in successful identification and curtailment of the illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing practices. By the benefit of AI, nations are able to safeguard their marine resources more effectively and such developments play a pivotal role in enhancing the regional stability as well. The integration of AI into the defense systems enhances the relative capability of states to better secure their areas of interest. ASEAN states such as Indonesian, Malaysia and Singapore have integrated AI to enhance their capabilities and serve their interests in the South China sea.

   Where AI plays a positive role in dynamics of the South China sea, we cannot turn a blind eye towards the potential risks. AI poses major concerns, particularly in the domain of gray zone tactics. China has taken advantage of AI to improve their strategies in this regard. Making use of coast guard vessels and deployment of AI-driven maritime militia, China tactfully seeks to assert its dominance in the region without resorting to direct military conflict. Scarborough Shoal incident explicitly demonstrated the tactical benefits and potential hazards of AI. In the contested waters, Chinese coast guard vessels, featuring AI driven targeting systems made use of water cannons to block a Philippine resupply ship. This move in turn provoked a diplomatic protest from Manila. The employment of AI-guided systems in cases such as the intimidation of Philippines supply missions emphasizes the potential of AI to increase preexisting tensions erroneously. The uncertainty of gray zone tactics, coupled with AI’s autonomous capabilities, may culminate miscalculations and inadvertent escalations in the region. The use of unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) operations demonstrates this vulnerability. Although such vehicles are justified for the peaceful purposes, they do create privacy concerns among states. A Chinese Sea Wing UUV was discovered by Indonesian fisherman in 2020, raising concerns over sovereignty and espionage.

    Keeping in view the potential benefits and hazards of AI, it is crucial for the key players in the South China Sea to adopt a balanced approach. AI has the potential to serve as a strategic deterrent in the region. Showcasing AI capabilities, the actors can deter aggression from the adversaries. Although the idea of AI deterrence seems beneficial, without proper precautions it may prove to be perilous. Unregulated utilization of AI in military domain can lead to arms race as well. In the domain of regional diplomacy, AI’s role is also pivotal. States are constructing new alliances based on common security concerns and technological benefits as members of the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) came together to enhance maritime domain awareness, demonstrating unified stance against coercive actions in the South China Sea. Such demonstrations present the larger geopolitical ramifications of AI. It has the potential to contribute in diplomatic realignments. The incorporation of AI in maritime operations also has substantial economic implications. On one hand it, it can play its part to boost trade in the region pertaining to enhanced security. On the other hand, economic instability may occur in case of weaponization of AI technologies, disrupting the trade routes. Therefore, it is imperative to strike a balance between security benefits and economic implications of AI to ensure regional stability.

    The establishment of international norms for the use of AI in maritime operations is critical to avoid unintended confrontations and ensure cautious deployments. The elements of accountability, transparency and human monitoring cannot be overlooked at any cost. Also, the states should join hands to collaborate with each other in the domain of AI development and research to enhance security and stability in the region. This would also foster trust among the collaborating parties, averting the chances of conflict. With the advancement of AI comes the associated risks. Robust security measures are required to safeguard AI systems from cyberattacks, mitigating the risks of escalating tensions and damage to critical infrastructure. Strict security protocols and regular audits should be implemented to safeguard AI technologies and reduce the chances of disruption. In the complex dynamics of the South China Sea, AI is a mixed bag, neither an unequivocal boon nor a straightforward bane. The integration of AI into broader strategic frameworks determines its potential consequences. It depends largely on the decisive actions of the regional powers to manage its dual edged potential. By adopting a collaborative and controlled approach, the international community can guarantee the positive contribution of AI in promoting peace, security and stability in one of the world’s most critical region.

Natasha Nayab Abid
Natasha Nayab Abid
The author is an undergraduate student of International Relations at National Defence University, Islamabad.