Four years after the stolen 2020 Belarusian election, the outcome of the war in Ukraine is the greatest variable affecting the future of democracy in Belarus. While the despotic regime of Alexander Lukashenko continues to aid Russia in its war against Ukraine, the Belarusian democratic movement is supporting Ukrainian victory through arms, information, and ideas.
To pro-democracy Belarusian volunteers and activists, supporting their Ukrainian neighbors goes hand in hand with helping their own countrymen, giving a face to those Belarusians who fundamentally disagree with Lukashenko’s complicity in the war and rest their hopes for change in Belarus on those fighting Russia.
Since the invasion began, many democratic Belarusians have contributed to Ukraine’s defense by volunteering to fight alongside Ukrainians, providing humanitarian aid, and assisting Ukrainians with resettling in Europe. Ongoing support for the Belarusian Democratic Forces is an important component of hastening Ukrainian victory and in so doing, forcing a reckoning for dictator Alexander Lukashenko.
United in Arms: Belarusians in Ukrainian Trenches
Motivated by the firm belief that Lukashenko’s reign will quickly end once his patron Vladimir Putin is defeated, some 1,500 Belarusian volunteer soldiers are fighting as part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Since the beginning of the war, Belarusian volunteers have been involved in serious battles, fighting in mixed groups alongside Ukrainians. Belarusian volunteer units include the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment, “Terror,” “Volat,” the Belarusian Democratic Corps, and the 1st Separate Airborne Assault Company. The latter was founded by Lt. Col. (Ret.) Valery Sakhashchyk, who serves as the Representative for Defense and National Security in the United Transitional Cabinet (UTC), the Belarusian cabinet in exile headed by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the leader of the Belarusian Democratic Forces. To date, at least thirty-six soldiers from Belarusian units have been killed in action in Ukraine, among the highest casualty rate among non-Ukrainian nationals.
Winning Hearts and Minds: Fighting the Information War
While combat is waged on the front lines, some Belarusians have chosen the information space as their battlefield. Propaganda from Minsk and Moscow is a nefarious influence, clouding Belarusians’ understanding of what is really happening across the border. Belarusian activists fight this disinformation by instead providing accurate information about the war, Lukashenko’s complicity, and the grave risks it poses for Belarus’ future. Meanwhile, watchdog organizations like Belarusian Hajun track the movement of Russian military equipment into and out of Belarus, shining a spotlight on Lukashenko’s nefarious backing of Russian aggression.
The UTC, the cabinet-in-exile, is also actively supporting Ukraine’s defense. UTC Representative Sakhashchyk plays an important role in the struggle for the hearts and minds of Belarusians through his messaging to the Belarusian people. Yet, his campaign is difficult: the regime has abundant resources to inundate Belarusians daily with propaganda, utilizing television, publications, and a state-controlled education system.
Mr. Sakhashchyk’s primary audience is the regime’s military personnel and officials, to whom they communicate the dangers and risks of supporting Russia’s war. Its work includes an interview series called “One of Us,” where former regime military personnel share their stories about why they left the military and how it indoctrinates its personnel. This is important in engaging Belarusian military personnel by providing them with true stories from former soldiers who pull the curtain back on the regime’s brainwashing of its armed forces.
Capturing the Future: Reform of the Belarusian Armed Forces
While some Belarusians volunteer for the battlefields of Ukraine and others counter propaganda online, the UTC is meanwhile offering a better vision for the future of Belarus’ military. Representative Sakhashchyk’s office is developing a new concept of national security which will present a modern alternative to a military system still encumbered by its Soviet predecessor. Indeed, in the regime’s recently published new military doctrine, Lukashenko names the US, NATO and the “collective West” as the enemy; yet, at the same time, he fears internal threats much more than a hypothetical external intervention or conflict with NATO. This presents the Belarusian Democratic Forces with an opportunity to redefine the meaning of Belarusian security.
Victory in Ukraine — Change in Belarus
In the wake of more than two years of Russian aggression against Ukraine, the greatest determinant of change in Belarus is the outcome of the war. The Belarusian Democratic Forces play an increasing impactful role in supporting Ukraine through arms, information, and ideas. Further support is needed to provide Belarusians with the tools they need to hasten Ukraine’s victory- and their own.
