On April 26, senior advisor to the Africa Center and U.S. Institute of Peace, Ambassador Johnny Carson told me—in a one-on-one interview—“Over the last decade, certainly starting around 2009, 10, and 11, we have seen an upsurge in violence in the northeastern part of the country caused by the group called Boko Haram.” He said, “It’s an equal opportunity purveyor of violence, kidnapping, robbery… It is marginalization, which is driving it because a lot of the killings, assassinations, kidnappings have actually been carried out against people of the Muslim faith, as well as the Christian community.”
The goal now, is for Nigeria to achieve stability and reduce armed violent activities. Due to its large economy, democracy, and population, Nigeria is one of Africa’s crucially important countries. As Ambassador Carson reminds us, since 2009, the country has been the location of armed violence from non-state, violent extremism actors. To address, and enhance comprehension of the challenges, efforts have been made to facilitate discussions between Northern Nigerian governors and U.S. officials, among other actors. This has included sharing experiences and strategies on dealing with insecurity. Understanding the surge in terrorism in Nigeria is crucial because it helps in assessing past, current, and emerging security challenges.
According to the Global Terrorism Trends and Analysis Center (GTTAC)’s publicly available Record of Incidents Database, GRID, in 2018, Nigeria scored the third highest fatality rate per terrorist incident—6.10 fatalities per incident—and 2.18 wounded victims per terrorist incident. That year, when 75% of the world’s total suicide attack count was being perpetrated by five countries, Nigeria accounted for a significant portion of global suicide attacks and improvised explosive device incidents, where Boko Haram was responsible for 16.8% of all IED incidents. By the end of 2020, although non-state, armed actors in Nigeria perpetrated 8% of the world’s fatalities resulting from terrorism, this represented a decrease from 2019, even as Ansaru (Jama’atu Ansarul Muslimina Fi Biladis Sudan) and Zamfara militants were conducting planned attacks. Zamfara militants are established in northwest and north central Nigeria.
Despite a global reduction in 2022, of fatalities from terrorism incidents, fewer injured, and less kidnappings, the third-highest incident count globally, occurred in Nigeria. While attackers in Nigeria had been decreasing the number of incidents year over year—2018, 2019, and 2021—GTTAC data shows evidence of, not only an increase in the number of incidents, in 2021 and 2022, but also that Nigeria once again ranked third, worldwide, in the highest number of incidents committed, with 2,926 fatalities, a 3% rise reversing the downward trend from previous years. Since 56% of incidents targeted noncombatants, that year, it has significant impact on the country.
On the afternoon of April 25—two days after the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) hosted 10 Nigerian Governors at a strategic event in Washington, D.C.—in an interview, the Governor of Zamfara State, Dauda Lawal, talked to me about the security challenges of his state, including kidnappings and the root causes of the security crisis—a state with an agrarian economy. At times, they target entire villages or cities with bombings, “… they burn their food, they kill people […] we have about 10 local governments that are affected by these activities.”
The security situation in other parts of northwestern state is not much different. “On the plateau, we have a lot of banditry which has translated into terrorism, “Caleb, the Governor of Plateau State told me in a separate interview, adding that his chief concern is that “we need to secure the land, secure the people, and their properties; make sure that our people return to their ancestral homes and farm.”
The GTTAC’s data, reveals unclassified, validated, terrorist incident data summarized about global terrorist operations since 2018, and the data collection methods are described in detail. The historical data shows that Nigeria has 49-armed groups; however, of these there are three typologies carrying out the most incidents: militancy and ethno-national terrorism, and religious jihadism.
Militancy and Ethno-national Terrorism
Fulani armed, non-state militants, deliberately organize, target, and perform unlawful, violent armed activities against unarmed, noncombatants, private, and public infrastructure. The perpetrators responsible for terrifying civilians and dislodging them from their homes were Fulani militants, driven by ethno-nationalist terrorism motives. They committed the highest number of incidents far exceeding Boko Haram and ISIS-West Africa, in 2018. However, this dynamic had changed by 2020, when Boko Haram actors were the key assailants.
Using an assortment of weaponry and maneuvers, including ambushes, assassinations, extortion, kidnapping, and shootings, they carried out various types of attacks primarily targeting civilians. By the end of 2022, Fulani militants’ incidents had declined from 2018 counts, yet over the four years 2018-2022, the fatality count was 3,779, with 807 wounded. While melee and sharp blades have been use by the Fulani, guns are their top weapons of choice.
Religious Jihadism
The objective of Ansaru (Jama’atu Ansarul Muslimina Fi Biladis Sudan), Boko Haram, and ISIS-West Africa, as religious jihadist groups, is to achieve socio-economic, political, and religious outcomes by targeting non-combatants.
Ansaru is shown by GTTAC data, to have committed just two incidents in 2018. Its highest number of incidents with casualties was 70, in 2020. And was responsible for 4 incidents resulting in eight people being killed, in 2022. In almost all their attacks, they rely on firearms and incendiary devices. In general, they target land transportation, the facilities and property of other armed, non-state actors, and private property. They conduct these activities by shooting, kidnapping, executions, extortion, and sabotage, among other tactics.
Boko Haram incidents in 2018, favored using gunfire and explosives, 74.09% and 18.64% of the time, respectively, but used a wide range of weapons, including small and heavy firearms, non-suicide IEDs, full automatic gunfire, and sharp blades. While Boko Haram-perpetrated jihadist incidents decreased by 15% in 2020 over 2019, and fatalities were down 6.7%, the favored weapon used was still gunfire at 48% of all Boko Haram incidents. When assessing 2020, GTTAC found that Nigeria went down from the third place ranking of top-most perpetrators of terrorism—replaced by the Democratic Republic of the Congo—and fell, instead placing ninth place, globally. The tactics most used in 2021 by the assailants, were shooting and kidnapping, 43% and 19%, respectively, and targeted civilians 29% of the time, in comparison to government forces in 28% of incidents. Overall—from 2018 to 2022—Boko Haram terrorism-related fatalities declined year over year by 93, in 2020, 539, in 2021, and 161, in 2022.
ISIS-West Africa’s jihadist incidents increased in 2020, by 11% over 2019, and wounded victims were up by 6% over prior year, with 60% of all attacks being with a firearm. Besides small, heavy, and full automatic guns, they also used grenades, IEDs, and incendiary devices. In addition to shootings, they do bombings and conduct ambushes. Unfortunately, in 2022, there was an expansion of ISIS-CORE affiliates such as ISIS-West Africa and a rise of 10% in incidents occurred. Mostly, ISIS-West Africa’s victim fatalities increased between 2018 and 2021 by 815, in 2019, 53, in 2020, 22, in 2021. Conversely, in 2022, there was a decrease of 429 fatalities by the group, reflecting a sharp -43% decline from the prior year. It is important to highlight that, while this is true, GTTAC uncovered a glaring contrast in the number of incidents, where a 10% increase in incidence occurrence exists, despite the decrease in the number of people killed. Targeted civilians were the largest victim group at 28% of incidents, compared to 21% being other armed actors, and 18%, government forces. ISIS-West Africa does not only target national facilities, but also law enforcement and intelligence community, and civilian property.
Zamfara State
In 2021, Zamfara militants, were third, globally, only to the Taliban and ISIS-DRC, as top committers of fatalities resulting from terrorism, conducting 45% of all incidents in the country, totaling 265 incidents, mainly in eight jurisdictions: Kaduna, Katina, Kano, Kibbe, Niger, Sokoto, Federal Capital Territory, and Zamfara State. In comparison, ISIS-West Africa ranked 6th, Boko Haram, 8th, and Fulani Militants, 9th—in the top 10 terrorist attacks resulting in fatalities, worldwide. Notably, despite an 11% global decrease in fatalities, in 2021, Zamfara militants, ISIS-West Africa, and Fulani militant fatalities increased.
In the same year, GTTAC findings indicate a sharp rise in ethno-national terrorism. The data indicates that the perpetrators are Zamfara militants since they committed the 265 incidents, in contrast to just 3 in 2019, far greater than Boko Haram, at 134 incidents, and Fulani militants, at 115—but all three: Zamfara militants, Boko Haram, and Fulani militants ranked in the top 10, of worldwide terrorism incidents, contributing to global terrorism in 2021. Furthermore, a key tactic employed by Zamfara militants is kidnapping, resulting in 1,802 victims kidnapped by Zamfara militants compared to 345 kidnapped by ISIS-West Africa in 2021. The militants achieve their aims using sharp blades, incendiary devices, non-suicide IEDs, and in at least 400 instances, firearms were used.
“I’m just a state governor, by name. I’m the chief security officer of the state. However, I don’t have control of the military. I don’t have control of the police as well as civil defence. And that is why I had to take these issues to Mr. President [Tinubu]—for him to come up with a system and do whatever it takes to make sure these guys are flushed out,” Governor Lawal told me.
On the bright side, there has been progress. In April, the US Institute of Peace hosted a discussion with Nigerian governors to explore solutions. Explored were the most important issues on how stability in northern Nigeria can contribute to progress, not only in the country, but regionally, and on common national interests. The discussion provided a unique opportunity to share experiences, ideas, and address the most pressing security challenges facing Nigeria.
10 Nigerian Governors traveled to Washington, in late April, in a quest to seek solutions to complex issues they face at the invitation of the USIP, and were afforded the opportunity to interact with Commerce, Defense, and State Department officials, and private sector actors. Nigerian states which experienced a concentration of terrorism activities, in the four-year period 2018 to 2022, were Benue, Borno, Kaduna, Niger, Taraba, and Zamfara States, among others. While progress is being made in facilitating dialogue, a coordinated and sustained effort involving all stakeholders is crucial to address the root causes, stem the activities by armed groups, and lessen the devastating impact on civilians.
