The Maldives Foreign Minister, Moosa Zameer, was in New Delhi on May 9, 2024 ahead of the May 10th deadline for Indian military personnel’s withdrawal from the Maldives. During the meeting, Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar told his Maldivian counterpart that the development of India-Maldives ties was based on mutual interest and reciprocal sensitivity as they are close and proximate neighbours. The two ministers held a wide discussion on bilateral and regional security issues. They also discussed development partnerships and an ongoing capacity-building programme.
The Maldivian Foreign Minister expressed hope that projects with Indian support will be finished as early as possible. Thus, the bilateral talks also focussed on the operational dynamics of the committees entrusted with the task of completing the projects. Showing the big brother attitude, the Indian government also extended the deadline to repay the $150 million loan that was secured by the previous government of the Maldives in the year 2019.
Meanwhile, The most irritating issue for the Muizzi government, 76 Indian military personnel who were stationed at the Maldives have returned home now and replaced by civilian officers of HAL (Hindustan Aeronautics Limited), which manufactured two helicopters gifted by India to the Maldives. After the withdrawal, the Maldives is now finding it difficult to operate these helicopters, and its patrolling mission has been badly affected. Zameer’s visit is the first high-level visit since Muizzu came to power in December 2023. On the withdrawal of Indian military personnel, Randhir Singh, the Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman, said that all the military personnel have been withdrawn from the Maldives and replaced by technical civilian personnel.
Situated in the Indian Ocean, the Maldives’ geo – strategic location makes it very important. It is a gateway to the Arabian Sea and the geographically dispersed country straddling 960 km long submarine ridge, north and south forms a wall in the middle of Indian ocean. Enormous number of goods and oil ships passes through here, making the region very crucial. Many Sea Lanes of Communication also passes through here. Island nation is also important for the peace and security of South Asia.
Historically and traditionally, the Maldives has been an ally of India and has remained dependent on Indian aid and support for a long time. The bilateral relations have remained cordial for most of the time between the two countries. The Maldives got independence in 1965 from British control, and soon after India established diplomatic relations with the country, the charge de affairs status was established in 1972, and the Resident High Commission was established in New Delhi in 1980. The Maldives opened a full-fledged High Commission in New Delhi in 2004.
The Maldives longest-serving President, Mohmmad Abdul Gayoom, visited India on many occasions. With India’s efforts, the Maldives also became a member of SAARC, thus bringing it into the South Asia region mainstream. Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi visited the Maldives in 1986 and extended Indian support to build a 200-bed Indira Gandhi Memorial Hospital (IGMH) at a cost of 42.5 crore rupees, which was inaugurated in April 1995. IGMH is now the best medical hospital in the Maldives and a proud symbol of the India-Maldives relationship. During Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to the Maldives, both governments signed an agreement seeking renovation of IGMH at a cost of 37.24 crore rupees. India also helped in establishing the Maldives Institute of Engineering and Technology in 1996, wherein 200 students could study here in various streams.
India extended its help during bad times, too. It sent urgent military help when mercenaries overthrew the government of President Gayoom in 1988. The whole military operation is known as “Operation Cactus.” India provided immediate succour when a powerful tsunami hit the Maldives in 2004. India also provided $250 million in aid and 100,000 Covishield vaccines to the Maldives during the pandemic.
President Nasheed visited India after assuming charge in December 2008, and in December 2009 to attend a high-level conference on climate change and technology transfer, and twice in 2010. Various agreements have been signed during these visits. Relations between India and the Maldives have taken a back turn since the Yameen government took over in the Maldives in 2013.His anti-India stance and crackdown on democracy harmed bilateral relations. Taking advantage of the situation, China started interfering in the Maldives’ affairs, leading to an acceleration in China-Maldives relations. The Maldives also joined. ambitious Chinese BRI project in 2014. China signed several bilateral agreements with the Maldives in order to enhance its influence in the region. Both countries signed a free trade agreement in 2017, which was stalled by his successor, Solih, in 2018, who preferred expanding bilateral relations with India. President Solih, elected in 2018 as Maldives President, advocated the “India First policy.”
The 2023 Presidential election in the Maldives between President Ibrahim Solih and Muizzu were portrayed as a contest between pro-India and pro-Chinese candidates. Muizzu campaigned for India Out, calling for the removal of Indian military personnel from Maldives soil and reviewing security ties with India. The election was also fought over economic issues, the housing crisis, and public debt. Observers also believe that Muizzu rose to office on the back of growing ire among the island’s Muslim population, which was not happy with the Indian Prime Minister’s treatment of Indian Muslims.
As a consequence, India-Maldives relations have worsened since the Muizzu took control of power in the Maldives in November 2023. When the Indian Prime Minister visited Lakshdweep, the Indian island, in January 2024, and his supporters cited it as an alternative to the Maldives, the allegations and counter-arguments started. Muizzu’s ministers made some disparaging remarks against the Indian Prime Minister, which strained bilateral ties adversely. The Maldives government sacked the ministers and attempted to damage control. But the episode has taken its toll. The number of Indian tourists visiting the Maldives has been reduced. The tourism industry contributes 20 percent of the Maldives GDP.
Growing Chinese Influence in the Maldives:
Amid the controversy, Maldives President Muizzu visited China in January 2024. Muizzu was the first Maldives President to choose China as his first overseas visit. Before him, all the presidents went to India as part of their first overseas visit, where he signed 20 agreements and elevated the ties to a strategic, comprehensive cooperative partnership. The agreements pertained to areas like the blue economy, the digital economy, infrastructure development projects linked to BRI, disaster and risk management, and news cooperation.
He also urged China to reclaim the top spot for tourist turnout in the Maldives. China also opposed interference in the internal affairs of the Maldives by any foreign power. The two sides also agreed to strengthen bilateral cooperation in various fields, strengthen cooperation in various international and multilateral forums, enhance the well-being of the people of the two countries, and work towards the China-Maldives community for a shared future. The Maldives also agreed to become part of the Chinese-led Global Security Initiative (GSI). But it motives are clear as it skipped the India-led Colombo security conclave meeting of NSA level held in Mauritius in December 2023.
The Maldives president also praised the Chinese-led BRI and said that his country looks forward to expanding new channels of cooperation and promoting high quality partnerships in the construction of the Belt and Road. After joining the BRI programme in 2014, it has since borrowed $1.4 billion from Chinese banks, which is around 20 percent of its public debt. China has also invested heavily in Maldives infrastructure projects in recent years, which includes the $200 million China-Maldives friendship bridge, which connects the islands of Hulhule and Hulhumale with the capital Male. The upgraded relations also have good potential for China. The Maldives is situated along one of the busiest maritime trade passages in the Indian Ocean, through which nearly 80 percent of Chinese oil imports flow.
The Maldives and China signed a defence agreement on March 20, 2024, details of which are still awaited, but the sources revealed that China would extend its support by revising military assistance to the Maldives.
Meanwhile, India has also announced plans to open a new naval base on Minicoy the Lakshadweep island of India, which is quite adjacent to the Maldives. Tourism contributes 30 percent of the Maldives GDP, and with the recent controversy evoked by Indian Prime Minister ‘s Lakshadweep visit, tourist footfall in the Maldives has decreased considerably. The media, celebrities, and people urged Indians to boycott Maldives visits, which resulted in a 33 percent drop in Indian tourists in the Maldives.
But, the Maldives is still an important part of India’s Neighbourhood First Policy. India has given Male $ 500 million for road and bridge construction in 2021 and announced a $100 million line of credit in 2022 to support development initiatives in the Maldives, which include cyber security and affordable housing projects.
Recently, India has also expressed concern over the Chinese spying vessel that is docked at the Maldives port, that could be inimical to Indian security interests. India raised the issue with the Maldives foreign Minister during his visit to India. The Maldives Foreign Minister has refuted Indian claims and said that the Chinese vessel has come for peaceful purposes and that the Maldives would not allow any spy vehicles in its waters. The Maldives has given the island of Feydhoo Finolhu, on lease for 4 billion dollars, to China.
The Maldives owes 20 percent of its public debt to China. The IMF has warned the Maldives of debt distress. It will lead to Chinese expansion in the region, and it may meet the same fate as faced by other countries such as Sri Lanka, Macedonia, Laos, Bangladesh etc. Falling prey to Chinese debt trap could be disastrous for Maldives. Chinese presence in Maldives could be detrimental to the peace and security of the region as well.
Bilateral relations have also been marred by the sudden reduction in the number of Indian tourists visiting the Maldives. Tourism constitutes an important part of the Maldives economy. With the recent spat with India, Indian tourists have cancelled their visit, that proved to be a blow for Maldives tourism and economy. Maldives has attempted to control the damage and asked Indians to visit Maldives.
In the parliamentary election in the Maldives, which took place in April 2024, the ruling party of President Muizzi won 68 seats out of a total of 91 seats. This has strengthened the president’s position and paved the way for him to overhaul the Maldives foreign and defence relations. More recently, the Maldives defence minister made an allegation about an unauthorised Indian sortie that occurred in 2019, which was refuted by the Indian High Commission at Male. The recent flurry of Maldives governments’ anti-India postures and policies is jeopardising bilateral ties and creating turbulence in the peaceful waters of Indo-Maldives bilateral relations.
