Although the rumors are flying while the cause of the helicopter crash is yet unknown, the recent death of President Raisi of Iran comes as a shock to many. Raisi has played a very active role in the Middle East lately. Being a hardliner, he has also been considered a potential successor of Supreme Leader Khamenei.
Iran has been in the international spotlight frequently. Domestically, the protest against hardcore Islamic lifestyle is still impactful. Meanwhile, the hardline conservatives are still in the fight with the more moderate fractions of Iranian politics. Furthermore, the Iranian government faces a conflicted relationship with the West and other Middle East states.
However, one thing is sure: Iranian politics will remain stable even without Rais and with all these domestic and international challenges. The unique Iranian institutions gave the president limited powers, but the succession of the Supreme Leader will still go smoothly. Meanwhile, Iran is relatively stable as the opposition force is limited. Furthermore, the Iranian government has made intelligent strategic moves that will avoid much of the international conflict.
Rock-Solid Institutions
Iran’s political system provided a great safety net for the country’s potential instability. The Iranian president represents the government on the world stage and is also the head of the government. However, the Constitution grants the Supreme Leader the ultimate commanding power, while the Assembly of the Experts and Guardian Council also hold legislative and administrative powers. The unique institutional design made the Iranian president less potent than we anticipated.
Therefore, having a new president would not necessarily impact Iranian policy dramatically. The ultimate decision has always come from the Supreme Leaders, who tried to maintain a balanced power structure and do not often appear in public sight or on the world stage. Meanwhile, Iran has already selected an interim president and foreign minister to secure the smooth functioning of the government, and the time for the next presidential election has already been established on June 28. These all indicate that Iran has a plan for a smooth transition of power in a sudden case like this.
One of the biggest concerns about Raisi’s death is Khamenei’s succession issue. External observers have considered Raisi to be the potential successor of Khamenei. Even so, the succession issue will still be handled smoothly. Some have mentioned that Raisi was already removed from the candidate list before the cash due to the dire economic situation. Therefore, Raisi’s death would not impact the selection of Khamenei’s successor. Also, the Iranian government has already planned for the succession of Khamenei in 2015, and even the potential of a Supreme Leader “in the format of a council” has been mentioned. The Tehran government has planned to select the next Supreme Leader.
Stabilized External Affairs
Externally, the Iranian foreign policy will not be shifted. Although the turmoil with the Israeli government continues, Iranian foreign relations have improved. The Iranian government, in recent years, has made wise moves strategically. This uptrend of foreign relations will carry on after President Raisi’s death.
Despite all the noise and friction, Iran kept its communication mechanisms open with the United States. Right before the death of President Raisi, Iranians met with the United States diplomats in Oman. This talk is meant to avoid further and expanded conflicts with all parties in the Middle East after Iran and Israel’s tension. These talks are not rare, as both sides have met secretly. These talks also mark a possible negotiation opportunity between the two countries.
Furthermore, Iran managed to mend its relationship with Saudi Arabia last year with the help of the Beijing government. This mending relationship gave Iran vital strategic space and resources it could direct in other directions. By reestablishing diplomatic relationships, Iran has an opportunity to break the potential siege that comes with Israel’s improved relationship with the Middle East. Meanwhile, Iran could also take the chance to focus on its domestic issues, from social to economic.
Even when the Israeli military bombarded the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Iranians showed significant constraint and avoided unnecessary escalation of the situation. Although the Iranian leadership claimed that the response would be at the maximum level, the Iranian government still tried to downplay the strike’s impact, hinting at de-escalation. The talks between the US and Iran are a great example of how the government wishes to control the conflict. Furthermore, Iran handled the situation in a low-key manner. Iranians proved that it will constrain itself and avoid an unnecessary war.
Lack of Opposition
Internally, Iran will also remain stable after Raisi’s death. Some may have argued that the death of President Raisi may have triggered the worst infighting of the Iranian government in decades. However, this will not be the case. The hardliners are likely to stay in power after Raisi’s death. The Iranian government has filtered out those who were even “loyal critics” in previous elections. Rasis has been considered a hardliner, and the Iranian government will guarantee the next president will align with the existing policy.
Meanwhile, the moderates in Iran are nowhere near powerful enough to challenge the dominant position of the hardliners. Iranian moderates are not united. The Reformists Front, a group as close as an opposition party, refused to participate in the March parliamentary election while some other moderate candidates still campaigned. The result becomes a landslide victory for the conservatives. The previously failed execution of JCPOA was an opportunity for the Tehran government to walk out from long-term sanctions, which hampered the reformists’ reputation. It also fueled the growth of the hardliners within Tehran.
Conclusion
As the new Iranian election comes closer, whoever will take over the presidency will inherit a dire economy, dissatisfied people, and challenging foreign relations. However, Iran will remain stable, and no substantial change will happen with a new president. The rock-solid Iranian institution made the president’s power limited. Iranian foreign relations have improved significantly in the past few years, providing a secure external environment. The fractioned Iranian reformist campaign is incapable of challenging the existing institutions. With all these elements, Rasis’s death will not bring turmoil to Iran. The country will remain stable.
