Pakistan and Iran are significant players in the geopolitical chessboard of South Asia and the Middle East. Their relationship is a complex interplay of diplomacy, strategic interests, and regional power balances. Recent developments, such as India’s involvement in Iran’s Chabahar Port, have added new dimensions to the relationship, potentially reshaping the strategic landscape of the region.
Iran’s president Ebrahim Raisi paid a three-day visit to Pakistan. After Pakistan’s election on Feb 8th, he became the first foreign public figure to visit the country. His travel agenda has included counterterrorism, border security, business relations, the future of the Iran-Pakistan gas project, and enlisting Pakistan’s support for Iran during the volatile Middle East situation. According to many observers, the timing of the Iranian president’s visit underscores the seriousness of Pakistan-Iran relations.
Iran and Pakistan are neighbors and share many things, including food, culture, architecture, and history. Iran was the first country to acknowledge Pakistan shortly after its independence, as history attests to and stood behind Pakistan during the Indo-Pakistan conflicts of 1965 and 1971. In the meantime, following the Iranian Revolution, Pakistan was the first nation to recognize a new Islamic government 1979. However, since Iran was no longer in the US camp, events after 1979 significantly impacted Pakistan-Iran ties. However, in the long run, a shift in the geopolitical landscape does not damage ties between the two nations.
Increasing violent non-state actor attacks between their respective countries’ borders are a source of concern for Pakistan and Iran. The increasing power of Indian proxies close to Pakistan’s border with Iran, particularly in the vicinity of Chabahar port, has long been a source of grievance for Pakistan. India has invested billions of dollars in the port under the guise of economic growth. Unfortunately, several Pakistani intelligence assessments and the 2016 arrest of Indian naval commander Kulbhushan Jadhav suggested that India was engaging in espionage efforts to sow discord in Baluchistan. Iran has also expressed concerns about anti-Iranian elements close to the Pakistani border.
Recently, India and Iran have signed a landmark 10-year agreement to operate the Chabahar port in Iran. This strategic project aims to improve the region’s connectivity and commerce channels. It allows Indian goods and products to transit to Afghanistan and Central Asia without going through Pakistan. Hence, the port is strategically significant to India. With an extra $250 million in finance, Indian Ports Global Limited(IPGL) will invest around $120 million under the terms of the agreement, making the contract worth $370 million.
The India-Iran Chabahar Port deal will strategically impact Pakistan and the region. Bypassing Pakistan’s ports in Karachi and Gawadar, India may access landlocked Central Asia and Afghanistan regions through the Chabahar Port. As a result, Pakistan’s strategic influence in the area may be undermined.
China has made significant investments in Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, which is considered to compete with the Chabahar Port. This can cause the region’s strategic rivalry and competition to rise. Moreover, the port might counterbalance the expanding Sino-Pakistani cooperation by strengthening the Indo-Iranian connections. By providing access to new marketplaces for India’s export and energy supply chains, the port may help to improve regional trade. Additionally, the agreement is perceived as a counter-reaction to China’s BRI, which could restrain China from expanding sway over the area.
The possible future of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project has also been discussed by the Iranian president. This project was first launched in March 2013 amid Pakistan’s energy crisis. However, international pressure has prevented Pakistan from keeping its pledges made in the project, even after ten years. Additionally, Pakistan will be fined $17 billion for violating the terms of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project. Though Iran is willing to give Pakistan additional time to finish the project, given the pressure from other countries, both countries still wish to proceed with the project because Pakistan’s government has ordered that the 80km pipeline within the country be completed.
“Pakistan has energy needs. Pakistan will make decisions based on its national interest in fulfilling its energy requirements, taking into account the international environment, taking into account the UN sanctions, if any, and issues relating to trade with other countries, including in the energy domain,” she said.
With the nation’s energy problem getting worse and thermal energy being a costly supply, Pakistan stands to gain significantly from the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. Under the greatest economic crisis the nation has ever experienced, Pakistan’s energy import bail increased to 17 billion dollars last year. Pakistan is well aware that lower-cost thermal energy will cause energy import bail to plunge. Still, America has alluded to possible penalties against Pakistan to further its objective of isolating Iran economically.
Moreover, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, in a press conference, emphasized that the government would prioritize national interests and deter any external interference regarding the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline.
The president of Iran has pledged to increase commerce between Iran and Pakistan to $10 billion to boost the regional economy. As the leading advocate of regional commerce, Pakistan is once again the real beneficiary in this situation. To alleviate the financial crisis, Pakistan could strengthen its economic relations with Iran. Additionally, Chinese investments in Iran and Pakistan may aid the peaceful extension of CPEC from the Middle East to South and Central Asia.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s recent trip to Pakistan marks a turning point in the two nations’ bilateral ties and could have geostrategic implications for the region. The implications include increased economic integration, boosted trade to $10 billion a year, Regional connectivity, a gas pipeline project, Strategic balancing, Security cooperation, and joint efforts to combat terrorism.
In summary, Pakistan’s autonomous foreign policy behavior determines the course of Iran-Pakistan ties. Given the state of the world economy, Pakistan’s reliance on the West, and the country’s perspective, there seem to be few chances for full-fledged cooperation. Pakistan must act in its best interests, though, as it cannot turn its back on a significant neighbor in the presence of a warning from the West.