Earlier this year, the six-month-long Belgian rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union set as its policy priority the creation of a unified strategic space framework encapsulated by EU Space Law (EUSL). The framework aims to systematize existing guidelines and avoid possible legal fragmentation stemming from EU member states’ discrete domestic laws regarding space. At present, there are eleven EU countries with national space laws, which cover a broad spectrum of activities ranging from satellite launches and operations to space debris management and international cooperation agreements. This fragmentary approach to space management prevents the bloc from acting as a “single market” for space and stunts its competitive edge in the emerging space economy. Yet, a more unified EU approach may prospectively limit market access and investment opportunities for US commercial space actors on the continent and pose significant threats to US economic and strategic interests. The establishment of new regulatory frameworks by the EU could create excessively bureaucratic barriers to entry for US firms, leading to a competitive disadvantage and erosion of US leadership in technological innovation.
EU’s Ambitions in Space Governance
In the dynamically evolving arena of highly innovative space exploration, the European Union aims to fortify its presence and influence in space by charting a course towards a comprehensive EU-wide space strategy. This strategy first articulated in 2023 by the European Commission and the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security set out to (i) outline a shared understanding of space threats, (ii) provide a common framework for security, resilience, and safety of space systems, (iii) define and expand space threat response mechanisms, (iv) maximize the use of space for space security and defense, as well as, (v) deepen and strengthen multilateral cooperation to promote norms, rules, and principles of responsible behavior in outer space.
A unified EU framework on space governance and security holds significant implications not only for Europe but also for the broader international community, including the United States. It is one among several EU documents, including the 2022 Strategic Compass, which signal a sober assessment of space threats and a more concerted move towards the development of European strategic autonomy with regard to a broad spectrum of overlapping policy fields, including its defense industrial base, trade, and economy. The EU recognizes the dual-use character of space assets and through its regulatory framework aims to foster gradual policy coordination and ultimately convergence needed for the ‘exploration and exploitation of space’. The bloc is committed to the peaceful use of space as it supports adherence to international space law and works to prevent an outer space arms race. As space-based assets become increasingly integrated and essential to modern armed forces, defense strategies at the EU level must ensure their safety, security, sustainability, and continued operation.
Europe’s aspirations intersect with key US national and strategic interests promoted by the Artemis Accords, which define the normative contours of the transatlantic cooperation and competition in space. The EU’s push for a unified Space Law grounded in its EU Space Strategy reflects efforts to minimize regulatory redundancies and avoid legal fragmentation at the EU-level, while acknowledging the ‘need to be prepared for a more competitive and contested space environment’. By harmonizing regulatory standards and legal norms across member states, the EU aims to streamline space activities, foster innovation, and mitigate risks associated with space operations. The proposed EU Space Law (EUSL) is expected to reappear on EU’s agenda after EU elections slated for June 6-9, 2024. It covers three pillars of safety, resilience, and sustainability and creates a “true single market for space” with a common framework for licensing satellite launches, managing space debris, and regulating commercial activities in space.
There is broad support for developing the EU Space Law among member states and relevant stakeholders. The majority recognize the importance of a clear, harmonized, and comprehensive legal framework to regulate space activities and ensure safety, security, and sustainability of orbital resources. However, some raise concerns about the scope and implementation of the law, suggesting the need for careful consideration of additional factors such as cybersecurity, environmental impact assessments, and inclusion of unconventional phenomena like Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP).
Implications for US National Interests
From a US perspective, the EU’s assertiveness in space governance and security carries both norms-setting opportunities as well as commercial and regulatory challenges. On one hand, increased collaboration with the EU presents opportunities for aligning priorities, sharing best practices, and coordinating responses to common threats. The United States and the European Union have enjoyed a longstanding partnership in space exploration and technology development, marked by numerous collaborative initiatives and joint missions. Deeper engagement in space security could further strengthen transatlantic ties. The International Space Station (ISS), Joint Spacecraft Missions, Galileo Satellite Navigation System, Hubble Space Telescope (HST), the Mars Exploration Missions illustrate the mutually beneficial nature of US-EU cooperation in space exploration, advancement of knowledge, and technology development. The US and EU can find ways to further enhance their collaboration on joint space surveillance efforts, data sharing initiatives, and joint research and development projects to address shared challenges in space security and enhance interoperability of their systems.
However, the EU’s pursuit of strategic autonomy and technological sovereignty in space also introduces potential areas of competition and divergence. As the EU endeavors to diminish reliance on external suppliers and bolster its autonomous access to space, there is a risk of diverging standards, disparate regulations and procurement practices that could directly and significantly impact US interests. A legally fragmented global space policy can result in the heightening of tensions, escalation of conflicts, and duplication of efforts leading to inefficiencies and increased costs of compliance. Furthermore, differences in strategic outlooks and threat perceptions between the EU and the US could complicate efforts of forging a unified approach to space security and defense at a time of global power redistribution and rebalancing. As China and Russia enhance their comprehensive strategic military, economic, and technological partnership and develop increasingly sophisticated space capabilities, a robust EU-US cooperation on space is needed more than ever.
Strategic and Commercial Opportunities
As space emerges as a competitive and contested domain, the EU’s efforts to assert its influence through rigid regulatory framework could shape the overall balance of power in the international system with potential implications for US military operations, intelligence gathering, and commercial interests in space. Increased competition in space could limit US companies’ access to European markets for satellite launches and space-based services, potentially affecting the competitiveness and overall profitability of the US space industry.
Several American companies operating in the space domain, such as SpaceX could see a diminished market share and revenue from European customers if the EU develops its own launch capabilities or fosters partnerships with domestic launch providers. Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Boeing’s space division as well as other major and minor satellite manufacturers and space-based services providers, may also feel the effects of regulatory barriers and increased competition in the European market. Changes or discrepancies in regulations and procurement practices at the EU-level could impact the companies’ competitiveness, growth prospects and business operations whilst boosting the continent’s own domestic industrial base. Europe’s Airbus Defence and Space, the French-Italian Thales Alenia Space, and Germany’s OHB SE, among others, are well-placed to strengthen their position in the global space industry and capitalize on the opportunities presented by EU’s nascent Space Law.
EU’s principled emphasis on promoting responsible behaviors and norms in space aligns with US objectives of maintaining a peaceful, sustainable, and stable space environment. Collaborative work on further development of norms of behavior in space, establishment of confidence-building measures, transparency, information sharing, and technology exchanges can collectively contribute to this vision. Joint consultations and dialogue can offer a valuable blueprint for developing a sensible legal framework for governing activities in outer space while mitigating risks associated with potential conflicts in this increasingly contested domain.
Undoubtedly, EU’s Space Strategy and the proposed EU Space Law carry significant implications for US national, commercial, and strategic interests. While initiatives in defense and security provide opportunities for collaboration and alignment in enhancing responsible conduct and formulating a unified approach to space security, they also entail the potential for intense interstate competition and legal divergence. Just as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) framework, which aimed at modernizing EU data protection laws for the digital age, impacted US commercial interests, so will the proposed EU Space Law. The negotiation and implementation of the GDPR involved complex discussions and compromises to balance the interests of various state and private-sector stakeholders, including businesses, consumers, and regulators. Adroitly navigating the complexities of transatlantic cooperation and competition in space governance and security is essential for advancing common interests, promoting global peace and security, and unlocking the vast scientific and economic potential of space exploration. Achieving a healthy balance between cooperation and competition will be crucial for both the EU and the US as they seek to promote their commercial, military, and political interests in outer space.