In August 2021 United States left Afghanistan and paved the way for the neo-Taliban to return to power. The current neo-Taliban’s strategy involves mobilizing support by recruiting local communities opposed to the Karzai regime and its allies. The movement has capitalized on its own momentum, gaining control of significant parts of southern Afghanistan and maintaining heavy insurgent activity across the country. They have also sought to establish strongholds by understanding the Pashtun power structure and forming alliances with vulnerable commanders and discontented clients.
Pakistan expected that this Taliban interim government would usher into a new era of stability and peace in the region but its expectations of getting interim system’s help to cater the TTP control were not met. Rather the relationship between the two intensified with increased border tensions and US withdrawal aided TTP and its nexus with other external radical groups in the country. Unlike the 1990s, when Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE recognized the Taliban regime in Kabul, in the current scenario, no state has extended its recognition however it is interesting to note that China recently took a significant step towards a de-facto recognition by posting an Ambassador to Kabul.
Since the Taliban has returned to power the US has rather perused on again –off again kind of strategy with the regime in effort to secure its interests in the region. Initially US adopted a pragmatic approach that mainly constituted the provision of humanitarian assistance aimed at preventing the collapse of Afghanistan economy. Simultaneously they expended their outreach to Taliban representative on issues relating to women rights, inclusivity and counterterrorism. However, this dual-track approach was derailed when the US drone strike killed Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul. Despite another pause the US still stayed determined to continue its engagement with the Taliban regime on narrow set of interests.
Although high-level meetings between Taliban Regime and US resumed again in October 2022, US clapped back with visa restrictions on Taliban members in 2023 for their policies against women education, and women employees of NGO’s and UN. However, over the past two years Washington has adopted a pragmatic approach towards the Neo Taliban Regime and it is expected that it will continue to do so while maintaining its unique influence via sanctions decisions but at the same time international consensus on non-recognition of Taliban Regime would significantly thwart US’ engagement strategy in Afghanistan. Another implication to watch is the state of Afghanistan’s economy in milieu of fading humanitarian assistance.
While the US will continue to play a vital part in this regard over the coming years, building a more vigorous role of UN could offer helpful continuality while going forward. The United Nations in this regard released an independent assessment on international engagement in Afghanistan in November 2023, by UN Special Coordinator for Afghanistan Feridun Sinirlioğlu.
The report while highlighting lack of consistency and coherence in stakeholder’s approaches towards Afghanistan recommended the appointment of a UN Special Envoy to ensure international engagement in Afghanistan. It further suggested a framework of creation of an international contact group, and the continuation of the existing large group format. It also commends the development of a roadmap to guide Afghanistan’s reintegration into the international system but subject to a series of actions taken by the Taliban. However, Taliban have expressed opposition to the proposal.
While US engagement with Afghanistan is very moderate and pragmatic in nature, China’s engagement with Afghanistan is driven by mainly two prime concerns i.e.; keeping US at bay and countering the threat of foreign militant groups in the region. Since the Taliban returned to Afghanistan, the emergence of new theatres of conflict in other regions has strapped Afghanistan to the periphery of global focus. Meanwhile Neo-Taliban takeover of Afghanistan poses several challenges to Pakistan as well, as Pakistan’s security and stability greatly depend on Afghanistan’s internal political and security situations.
