Silent Recognition of the Taliban is not Enough

Taliban leaders have been discussing the idea of “silent recognition” in their private talks.

Taliban leaders have been discussing the idea of “silent recognition” in their private talks. They are not concerned by the fact that any international actors or member of the UN has not recognised the Islamic Emirate, after nearly three years. They are aware that the Taliban are considered a terrorist organisation by several powerful nations, including Russia. However, they recognise these factors limit the Afghan government’s effectiveness in the international system. Afghanistan exists in a “grey zone” according to international law and procedures that are recognised at the supranational level and among global organisations. As a result, the banking system in Afghanistan is not functioning, and Afghan banks are disconnected from the international financial network. This has led to a severe lack of financial liquidity within the country.

Implementing necessary infrastructure, logistics projects, and social initiatives requires substantial financial support from external sources and private partners. Even with such funding, it might not be enough to finance certain investments fully. Afghanistan has limited air connections with many countries in the West, Asia, and even the East. This is only one of the many obstacles that prevent the Afghan government from adequately addressing issues related to sustainable development, political stability, and important social and economic challenges. Afghanistan is currently experiencing a shortage of financial liquidity, especially non-cash funds. Since the summer of 2021, about nine billion USA dollars of sovereign funds belonging to the Afghan government have been frozen in Western private banks.

Nevertheless, the life in Afghanistan continues despite the ongoing political turmoil. The unrecognized Taliban government is working towards solving the country’s social and economic issues. However, their efforts have been hampered by international restrictions and a lack of experience among government officials. Despite these challenges, almost 28,000 foreign citizens visited Afghanistan in 2023, as reported by Ariana News.

There has been an uptick in diplomatic activity between the Taliban and other countries in the region. Specifically, Taliban officials have been meeting regularly with representatives from Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and other Central Asian countries to discuss various projects. One such project is the potential creation of an energy supply hub in Herat Province, which would include exporting Russian oil. The Afghan government has already reached agreements with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan regarding this matter, with an initial shipment of one million tons of oil to be transported through the logistics center. It is important to note that the hopes of Kabul are reasonable, as sanctions on Moscow oil tankers have prevented Russian oil supplies from entering Europe. Nevertheless, the demand for oil in the world market, particularly in regions with energy shortages like Afghanistan, remains high. Furthermore, Russia has announced plans to provide 536 tons of wheat to Afghanistan, with a shipment of fortified flour already being transported by train to the city of Hairatan in northern Afghanistan as part of a humanitarian aid effort.

The political and economic situation in Afghanistan is facing significant challenges, one of which is the strained relationship with Pakistan. This creates a paradoxical situation because the two countries have had military clashes and shootouts at their border, causing tension between them. The unrecognized government in Afghanistan does not appreciate the Pakistani government and the military’s attempts to control them. The Pakistani Intelligence Service (ISI) and military have supported and funded the Taliban for a long time, creating a structured Islamist movement in 1996. However, the situation has changed, and the Pakistani military still supports some radical Islamist groups, contributing to the spread of their influence in the region. With the Taliban returning to power in 2021, the situation in Afghanistan has changed significantly. The Taliban no longer need the guidance and support of their mentors and are seeking to strengthen their country’s sovereignty and expand its foreign policy ties. They are actively building friendly relations with countries such as Central Asia, Iran, India, and Russia.

It’s important to understand Afghanistan’s historical context. Throughout history, the country has been greatly affected by the strategic competition known as the “Great Game”. This has influenced the political, military, economic, and socio-cultural transformation of Afghanistan. However, the country’s transformation into a “traumatized state” wasn’t solely due to the rivalry between Russia and Britain in the 19th century, or the expansionist policies of its neighbours. Afghanistan’s history of bloody uprisings, coups, and conflicts also played a major role. For instance, the Afghan flag has changed almost 30 times since its inception, and the national anthem has undergone the same fate. This illustrates how deeply entrenched political and social instability is in Afghanistan’s history.

Afghanistan requires stable development, which will take time to achieve. However, there is a risk of destabilization and increased conflict if various geopolitical games and support for individual clans and groups within the unrecognized government continue. The Taliban is a reality in Afghan society, and they will continue to rule the country for a long time. The opposition, consisting of national minorities located in Western capitals, lacks significant support from either the country or global and regional powers. Therefore, working with the moderate Taliban, especially influential mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar group, and integrating them into the political process would be the most sensible course of action for those who seek stability in Afghanistan.

Georgi Asatrian
Georgi Asatrian
Georgi Asatryan, associate professor, Lomonosov Moscow State University and Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.