In the first months of 2024, the Korean Peninsula became a hot spot in East Asia. The North Korean extended tests and live rounds drills have significantly escalated the situation. From surveillance satellites to new developments in North Korea’s ICBMs, these actions have stirred up the stability of the region tremendously.
Meanwhile, North Korea has declared that they are stopping to view South Koreans as fellow countrymen. The Republic of Korea is now DPRK’s biggest enemy. North Korea suspended all economic collaboration agreements with South Korea while closing its reunification agency. The political tension has reached an all-time high in the Peninsula.
However, North Korea’s policy has become increasingly apparent behind the uncertainty. It is safe to say that North Korea has adopted a carrot-and-stick policy. North Korea expressed its aggression through military activities and harsh words. However, North Korea was also unwilling to escalate in the region while maintaining a decent relationship with other nations.
North Korea’s stick is the policy to maintain high pressure on the enemy. In its official statement for the recent conference, it clearly stated that North Korea follows “ power for power and head-on contest and pursue the high-handed and offensive toughest policy.” These rough actions and responses towards South Korea and the US military actions perfectly follow this policy.
In North Korea’s opinion, the country is surrounded by solid hostility. The government has to face the challenges of its most hostile enemies directly, namely the US, South Korea, and Japan. North Korea believes that only by using the maximum amount of force will it be able to force its foes to tune down their behavior.
This policy is not something new. The Korean Workers’ Party established the “ power for power and head-on contest” strategy in foreign affairs in 2022. Pyongyang claimed that the policy was not meant to stir up tension in the Korean Peninsula but to defend its national sovereignty. This policy has become a solid guideline for the North Korean government, and the same expression is still used today.
Therefore, North Korea’s military actions are consistent with the stick policy. The increasing pace of weapon testing is just a part of North Korea’s providing maximum pressure to the “enemies.” Kim Jong Un mentioned recently the importance of maintaining “incomparably overwhelming strength.” From firing toward Yeonpyong Island to the testing of the submarine-based missiles, the Pyongyang government indicated its unwavering determination to crush any opposition standing in its way.
However, North Korea also has a carrot side in foreign relations. The North Koreans left consistent and subtle traces indicating that North Korea did not intend to escalate the situation in the Korean Peninsula. Some of its actions even expressed North Korea’s willingness to work with external partners.
The Pyongyang government left hints that it lacked the desire to provoke. Although North Korea has tested weapons, from nuclear weapon systems to new missiles, the official statement claimed that the actions have nothing to do with the regional security situation. For example, tests for hypersonic missiles were declared to be part of the “regular activities” of the research administration. Another statement on a live ammunition drill on January 7 also clearly states that it has no intention to expose threats towards “enemy states.” The DPRK government tried to ensure it would not stir up the situation.
North Korean leadership also showed a soft side of its military policy. North Korean leadership has stated, “We will never unilaterally unleash a war if the enemies do not provoke us.” The North Korean forces will only respond with full force should the enemies “ignite a war.” North Korea has also, on multiple occasions, portrayed itself as a victim of US and South Korean aggression and claimed its actions are reactionary. Although the terminology remained aggressive, the Pyongyang government still left signals that it lacked the motivation to provoke a conflict in the region.
North Korea also showed exciting development with the external world, from allies to enemies. North Korea delivered a message of sympathy to the Japanese government regarding the earthquake in January. This was one of the first times the North Korean government sent such messages to the Tokyo government. For the first time, the North Korean government also addressed the Japanese Prime Minister as “his excellency.” Meanwhile, the recent visits from Beijing and Moscow delegations to Pyongyang have also solidified the DPRK’s relationship with its northern neighbors.
Economically, North Korea’s collaboration with others has deepened. Although sanctions still play a significant role for the country, the economic North Koreans are working closer with Moscow beyond the ammunition deal. Russian tourist agencies in the Far East are organizing ski tours to North Korea, the first since the pandemic. Meanwhile, the Rason Special Economic Zone has rejuvenated as a new frontline with Russian trade. Foreign ships are coming into the port for the first time in decades. These actions also proved that the North Korean government still seeks external trade and support to sustain itself. It has no power or the resources to escalate in the region.
The hostility on the Korean Peninsula has been a significant topic of world affairs. The rising tension between Seoul and Pyongyang has also drawn the world’s attention. However, North Korea’s actions are all within its policy frame. On the one hand, North Korea remains under a high level of pressure on the frontline and expresses its utmost determination in defending its sovereignty. On the other hand, North Korea opened its doors slightly more than before and expressed subtle signals that it lacks the desire to provoke a conflict. This is North Korea’s new stick-and-carrot policy.
