Pakistan’s patience with the Taliban has run out. Islamabad is increasingly willing to violate Afghanistan’s sovereignty to combat deadly terror attacks. This is indicative of a wider regional dilemma, with Afghanistan’s wicked problems are spilling out across the region.
This comes as Pakistan’s military conducted airstrikes on suspected hideouts of terror groups in Afghanistan’s Khost and Paktika provinces on Monday. According to the Taliban, eight civilians were killed, all women and children. Neither government has confirmed whether militants were also killed.
The strikes have been described by Islamabad as “intelligence-based anti-terrorism operations” and the target was Tehrik-e-Taliban, better known as the Pakistani Taliban. It was in response to a recent suicide bombing across the border in Pakistan’s North Waziristan, which killed seven soldiers.
The Taliban are livid. The groups spokesperson, Zabihullah Mujahid, released a statement slamming the attacks as “reckless” and a “violation of Afghanistan’s sovereignty”. Zabihullah also warned there would be “bad consequences” for Pakistan. The Taliban reportedly targeted Pakistani troops across the border in response with artillery and small arms fire, but it is unclear whether there were any casualties.
This is not the first time Pakistan has struck Afghan territory. In April 2022, Pakistani airstrikes hit targets in northeastern Afghanistan, reportedly killing 47 people. The circumstances are almost identical, with Islamabad saying it was targeting terror groups.
Both attacks reflect how a big problem terrorism has become for Islamabad.
The Pakistani Taliban is an umbrella organisation of extremist Islamist groups that operate in and out of Afghanistan. While not part of the Taliban, they are closely affiliated with and supported by Kabul. Their ideology is also identical, embracing a harsh interpretation of Islam and driven to impose it on Pakistan. Unlike groups Al Qaeda or Islamic State in Khorasan (ISIS-K), their target is squarely Pakistan.
The group has been responsible for the most recent and deadliest attacks in Pakistan. Last year was also one of the bloodiest in living memory, with the group carrying out hundreds of attacks across the country, killing nearly 1,000 people.
Islamabad was previously able to defeat the Pakistani Taliban after several military operations in Pakistan’s northwest from 2014, dismantling its operations in tribal areas and driving militants back into Afghanistan. The group was isolated, and its capabilities diminished.
But the Taliban’s return to power in 2021 changed everything. Now, the Pakistani Taliban has an ideological and financial backer in Kabul, which has allowed the group to rebuild and rearm. This has coincided with a dramatic spike in attacks on Pakistani soil.
This has been a consistent theme with the Taliban. The group has a history of supporting terror groups, offering them a home in Afghanistan and supporting them financially. The most notable example is the harbouring of Al Qaeda in the 1990’s, which led to terror attacks around the world, like September 11.
Nothing has changed and Afghanistan is again a haven for terror groups. A United Nations report in January confirmed the Taliban continues to support groups like the Pakistani Taliban. This includes supplying and training recruits and providing weapons and equipment. Militants continue to cross the border to conduct attacks with total impunity from Kabul.
Pakistan has clearly had enough. The Taliban’s support of terror groups is making the region less safe and compromising the security of its neighbours. This is something these neighbours appear to no longer tolerate.
Islamabad was at pains to stress this week that it was not seeking “direct conflict” with the Taliban, but it warned it would continue to strike targets in Afghanistan unless the group took steps to deal with the problem.
Pakistan is not alone. China and India have also pleaded with the Taliban to not allow the country to become a haven for terror groups. But Pakistan is different. It is directly impacted and has the capability to strike back across the border.
This puts the ball firmly in the Taliban’s court.
The Taliban has shown it is capable of tackling terror groups when interested in doing so, having recently and successfully beaten back ISIS-K. While ISIS-K has still managed to carry out attacks in Afghanistan, the Taliban have been able to restrict the groups capabilities and have targeted and killed its leaders.
The Taliban’s disinterest in doing the same with the Pakistani Taliban is telling and points to a wider problem. The Taliban is driven by ideology and prioritises this over the human rights of women, the humanitarian needs of the country and now the security concerns of its neighbours. The Taliban is the quintessential bad neighbour that acts for itself, regardless of the consequences.
But there may be consequences for the Taliban, whose position is not as strong as it appears.
Afghanistan continues to grapple with challenges, like the ongoing humanitarian crisis that has crippled the country. The Taliban is also in no position to stand up militarily to Pakistan, and certainly cannot afford to alienate the few allies it has, such as China.
At home, the Taliban rules through fear, but this only works from a position of strength. Pakistan violating Afghanistan’s sovereignty makes the group look weak, which could eventually undermine its power base or cause a fracture between Taliban factions.
The Taliban should also be wary of Pakistan. Islamabad helped create and support the group in the 1990’s and the later counterinsurgency against the United States. The Taliban may no longer see itself as beholden to its patron, but Pakistan does not share this view. If Kabul will not cooperate, there is a risk Islamabad may look to remove the regime to ensure its security concerns are addressed.
The solution for the Taliban is simple. It needs to work for the regions best interests by tackling all terror groups, including the Pakistani Taliban. Doing so will show leadership that will make it look strong at home and placate its neighbours.
It will also help solve the problems the country faces, like the ongoing humanitarian crisis. Removing the threat of terrorism and fostering a better relationship with Islamabad will prevent reactionary policies like that seen last year, when Pakistan forcibly deported hundreds of thousands of Afghans back to Afghanistan.
The Taliban was born in an Afghanistan racked with instability that saw weak governments deposed through violence and intrigue. Nothing suggests the group is immune from suffering the same fate, particularly if it continues to choose ideology over good governance.
The Taliban therefore has a choice to make, and history suggests it needs to choose wisely.
